Dallas, TX: ReportsandReports announce it will carry Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Research Report in its Store. Browse complete Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Report The recession is reshaping how consumers interact with the restaurant industry, and the breakfast daypart is no exception: value pricing remains at the forefront of menu strategies, as growing guest checks often takes a backseat to generating guest traffic. However, unlike the lunch and dinner dayparts, breakfast benefits from long-term untapped guest traffic potential, and it can generate healthy margins, factors that are drawing major new players into the market. Packaged Facts’ Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market estimates that breakfast daypart restaurant sales reached $37.2 billion in 2009, and forecasts that they will reach $37.0 billion in 2010 and $37.7 billion in 2011. While these figures may appear tepid at first glance, when viewed against the backdrop of lower overall restaurant sales, the breakfast daypart has fared relatively well, taking share from lunch and dinner. In the final analysis, we believe that near-term challenges will give way to long-term opportunity. Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with the breakfast daypart, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—for consumers today and tomorrow. Table Of contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary Scope and Methodology Scope Methodology Macroeconomic Analysis Fast Facts Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker Fast Facts Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis Fast Facts Breakfast Trends, Innovations & Strategies Fast Facts Breakfast Restaurant Selection Analysis Fast Facts Breakfast Menu Selection Analysis Frequent Coffee Drinkers: Custom Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown Breakfast on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis McDonald’s Breakfast strategy: sales growth = guest count growth Breakfast menu mix Other snippets Burger King Refocusing on breakfast Other snippets Wendy’s Wendy’s reenters breakfast wars with premium QSR differentiation Starbucks Recession strategy pays dividends Brand extensions: VIA and Seattle’s Best On the food and coffee front Bob Evans On the menu: off-premises growth, remodeling, and quickening service Menu trends Breakfast in a big way Cracker Barrel Menu item innovation Other snippets Denny’s Recession challenges: region, lower-middle income demographic and late-night 2009-2010 breakfast menu strategy $2 $4 $6 $8, who do we appreciate? Other moves Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Restaurant sales show life, but we believe positive news is transitory Restaurant industry rebound still not in cards February, March and April 2010 food services & drinking places sales sequentially improve May advance sales point to grocery growth Graph 2-1: Non-Adjusted Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services and Drinking Places, 2009-2010 Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term Outlook In-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significant Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full-service restaurant spend Graph 2-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View National Restaurant Association index contracts after transitory spike Graph 2-4: Restaurant Performance Index, 2006-2010 Macroeconomic factors affecting restaurant sales Consumer confidence still in a trough Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of business conditions, job prospects darken Expectations Index dips as job prospect optimism dims Unemployment picture stabilizes Some perspective Graph 2-5: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010 Unemployment rate not one-size-fits-all Disparity in unemployment rates by education level Young adults, minorities and men also find harder going Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010 Graph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010 How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad? Transitory Spring 2010 restaurant benefit driven by reduced savings Chipping away at the debt burden Graph 2-8: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010 Graph 2-9: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010 Unemployment and GPD forecast Slow employment rebound to coincide with slow rebound in consumer spending Graph 2-10: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-2012 Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high Graph 2-11: Household Net Worth, 2005-2010 Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism Q2 2010 summary equities analysis Graph 2-12: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Index: 2007-2010 Food at home maintains pricing edge Graph 2-13: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010 Farm value comes back down to earth Graph 2-14: Market Basket of Farm Foods, Annual % Change, 2006-2010 Food inflation forecast revised downward Food CPI returns to positive annual growth rate Proteins on the upswing Dairy prices normalize Fruits and vegetables Other Chapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker Note on reading charts Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend February 2010 trend continues in June 2010 Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurants Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View Eating breakfast at home had significant traction Students, 18-24s and parents more likely to eat breakfast at home Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Present Behavior: Eating Breakfast at Home Restaurant breakfast users as likely as restaurant goers in general to eat breakfast at home Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Present Behavior: Eating Breakfast at Home, Restaurant Breakfast Users Higher-income versus lower-income fast food, family restaurant and coffeehouse breakfast users Graph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Present Behavior: Eating Breakfast at Home, Restaurant Breakfast Users, HH Income Splits Planned spending on fast food appears grim Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food Restaurant Spending Intended full-service spend lacks promise Graph 3-7: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service Restaurant Spending Intention to save money remains high Graph 3-8: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving Money Restaurant breakfast users more likely to plan higher fast food and full-service spending Graph 3-9: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Restaurant Spending, by Restaurant Breakfast Type Restaurant usage and usage frequency Overview Graph 3-10: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010 Graph 3-11: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010 18-34s drive guest counts Graph 3-12: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age And exhibit higher usage Graph 3-13: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age HH income Graph 3-14: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income Graph 3-15: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income Employment status Graph 3-16: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status Graph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status Restaurant breakfast use Breakfast day part accounts for less than 10% of all usage Graph 3-19: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010 Restaurant breakfast use in past month Graph 3-20: Restaurant Breakfast Usage in Last Month, Type of Restaurant, 2010 Gender bias? Graph 3-21: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Breakfast, 2010, by Gender Food retail may be siphoning sales from younger restaurant goers Graph 3-22: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Breakfast, 2010, by Age HH income: Fast food as the great equalizer “Great coffee”: aspiration or reality? Graph 3-23: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Breakfast, 2010, by HH Income Employment status: sense of routine and daily obligation Graph 3-24: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Breakfast, 2010, by Employment Status Appendix: Consumer Survey Chapter 4: Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis Market size and overview Flat sales—but read between the lines Near-term challenges Long-term outlook Growth factors Full-service caveat Graph 4-1: Limited-service and full-service breakfast sales, 2005-2011 Breakfast daypart traffic growth outpaces industry Fast food/QSR segment accounts for 80% of breakfast daypart purchases Restaurants sales trends by daypart Consumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spend Graph 4-2: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-2008 Breakfast share of spend increases by 11% during 2005-2008 Graph 4-3: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-2008 Spending on breakfast away from home, by region Graph 4-4: Breakfast Away From Home Expenditures, by Region, 2008 Spending on breakfast away from home, by age Graph 4-5: Breakfast Away From Home Expenditures, by Age, 2008 Spending on breakfast away from home, by income Graph 4-6: Breakfast Away From Home Expenditures, by Income, 2008 Spending on breakfast away from home, by race/ethnicity Graph 4-7: Breakfast Away From Home Expenditures, by Race/Ethnicity, 2008 Daypart meal spend analysis Breakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food & family restaurants Graph 4-8: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010 Breakfast meal spend, fast food versus family restaurants Graph 4-9: Breakfast Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, Selected Demographics Meal spend by daypart, fast food restaurants Graph 4-10: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected Demographics Chapter 5: Breakfast Trends, Innovations & Strategies Fast food/QSR pushes breakfast value envelope Extreme affordability strategy extends to breakfast McDonald’s $1 value menu to pressure competition Burger King addresses breakfast challenges A subversive BK Breakfast Muffin BK Breakfast Bowl for under $3 Seattle’s Best-branded coffee program Wendy’s to reenter breakfast wars Subway rolls out nationwide breakfast program Fast casual breakfast players results a mixed bag Au Bon Pain grows breakfast year-over-year Einstein Noah and Panera Bread tread water Atlanta Bread does breakfast to the tune of 20% of sales Other fast casual breakfast moves Family restaurants push everyday value Full-service value menus Value in portion size Convenience trends All-day breakfast Breakfast catering Customization I said, “Coffee!” Coffeehouses embrace value bundling And Starbucks cashes in on mid-tier Seattle’s Best Sandwiches rule the breakfast menu Health on menu Dunkin’ Donuts sprinkles health onto the menu Chick-fil-A adds yogurt parfait A comforting healthful breakfast Fruits and smoothies Chapter 6: Breakfast Restaurant Selection Analysis Note on reading charts Breakfast restaurant selection influencers Overview: coffee, routine and low price significantly shape restaurant breakfast decision Graph 6-1: Breakfast Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010 Restaurant selection: convenience influencers Gender: men = linear routine; women = task balancing routine? Graph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age: work life holds the key Graph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income breeds breakfast routine Graph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status Graph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Convenience Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Urban, Suburban, or Rural location Graph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban, Rural, 2010 Restaurant selection: breakfast menu item influencers Gender: women more likely to have value orientation; men as inclined to want healthful offerings Graph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age: younger patrons seek a difficult balancing act Graph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income: healthy options and small portions Graph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status Graph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Menu Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Restaurant selection: breakfast cost threshold influencers Gender: women more likely to gravitate to lower price points Graph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age: $3 is a hit across the board Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income Graph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status Graph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Restaurant selection: breakfast dinein partner influencers Gender: it’s a work thing Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age: 65+ not interested in eating alone Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010 Restaurant selection: breakfast takeout partner influencers Gender Graph 6-17: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Takeout Partner Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age Graph 6-18: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Takeout Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010 Employment status Graph 6-19: Restaurant Selection: Breakfast Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Chapter 7: Breakfast Menu Selection Analysis Note on reading charts Menu selection influencers, by daypart Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, by Daypart, 2010 Breakfast restaurant menu selection influencers, by demographic Gender Graph 7-2: Breakfast Menu Selection Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age Graph 7-3: Breakfast Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income Graph 7-4: Breakfast Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status Graph 7-5: Breakfast Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Urban, suburban, or rural location Graph 7-6: Breakfast Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010 Chapter 8: Frequent Coffee Drinkers: Custom Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown Frequent coffee drinkers Graph 8-1: Frequent Coffee Drinkers: Selected Demographics Importance of breakfast to frequent coffee drinkers Bring on better coffee Graph 8-2: Importance of Breakfast, Frequent Coffee Drinkers, Selected Demographics Restaurant types visited by frequent coffee drinkers Coffeehouses maintain an edge on fast food Graph 8-3: Restaurant Types Visited for Breakfast, Frequent Coffee Drinkers, Selected Demographics Restaurant selection factors, mean restaurant use and average spend It’s all about the coffee More coffee means more coffeehouse visits—but not fast food visits Coffee drinkers help enrich coffers Graph 8-4: Restaurant Breakfast Selection Factors, Mean Restaurant Use, and Average Spend, Frequent Coffee Drinkers Chapter 9: Breakfast on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts McDonald’s A $7.5 billion breakfast behemoth rolls dice on high-volume, low-ticket breakfast Breakfast strategy: sales growth = guest count growth Breakfast menu mix Core customers: Convenience and Ease and Weekend Cooks Graph 9-1: McDonald’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation McDonald’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-2: McDonald’s Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users McDonald’s by the numbers Graph 9-3: McDonald’s by the Numbers Burger King Barbell strategy Reinvigorating breakfast Brunch in testing stage Longer breakfast hours Convenience and Variety on a Budget Graph 9-4: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Burger King core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-5: Burger King Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users Burger King by the numbers Same-store sales dip during nine months ending March 2010 Graph 9-6: Burger King by the Numbers Wendy’s 2009-2010 strategy: “Real” food at a real value Coming up in 2010 and 2011 Wendy’s reenters breakfast wars with premium QSR differentiation Local pricing Acquire or be acquired? “Food Lifestyle” segmentation groups a blend of McDonald’s and Burger King Graph 9-7: Wendy’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Wendy’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-8: Wendy’s Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users Wendy’s by the numbers Graph 9-9: Wendy’s by the Numbers Starbucks Recession strategy pays dividends Menu pricing strategies and customer incentives Pricing and bundling Brand extensions: VIA and Seattle’s Best Rewards, technology and new retail formats On the food and coffee front Core Starbucks users a relatively healthful bunch Graph 9-10: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Health Attitudes Graph 9-11: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Starbucks core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-12: Starbucks Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users Starbucks by the numbers Graph 9-13: Starbucks by the Numbers Bob Evans On the menu: off-premises growth, remodeling, and quickening service Menu trends New on the menu Breakfast in a big way Emphasizing value for money Bob Evans by the numbers Graph 9-14: Bob Evans by the Numbers Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Restaurant operations Retail operations 2009-2010 strategy: couponing, promotions & Seat to Eat Menu item innovation Guest count demographics Reformed Traditional users may look to Cracker Barrel to meet them halfway on health Graph 9-15: Cracker Barrel Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Cracker Barrel core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-16: Cracker Barrel Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users Cracker Barrel by the numbers Graph 9-17: Cracker Barrel by the Numbers Denny’s Recession challenges: region, lower-middle income demographic and late-night 2009-2010 breakfast menu strategy Build Your Own Grand Slam continues to deliver But other rollouts round out the menu 2010 shift to everyday value supported with LTO entrees $2 $4 $6 $8, who do we appreciate? Post-Super Bowl free Grand Slam promotions continue Convenience moves Courting older consumers and students Weekend Cooks help drive sales Graph 9-18: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Store-made, per-cooked meal cross-tie? Graph 9-19: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Competition Denny’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 9-20: Denny’s Core Demographics: Low- and High-Frequency Users Denny’s by the numbers Graph 9-21: Denny’s by the Numbers Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts Browse complete Breakfast Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Report Browse all Food and Beverages Market Research Reports Browse all Packaged Facts Market Research Reports Browse all Latest Report Related Reports: Tea and Ready to Drink (RTD) Tea in the U.S. Retail, Foodservice and Consumer Trends MarketTrend The U.S. Market for Chef and Foodservice branded Food Sold at Retail About Us: Contact:
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