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The latest Romania Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.79% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.53% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Romania’s estimated share of 2009 regional gas consumption was 2.09%, while its share of production is put at 1.32%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.13%, with the country accounting for 0.84% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level. Romanian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil demand could potentially grow at 3.0% per annum, rising to 254,000b/d by 2014. In spite of greater efforts by the OMV-backed national oil company Petrom, we see domestic oil production slipping from an estimated 95,000b/d in 2009 to 77,000b/d by 2014. This implies rising import levels, with volumes up to 177,000b/d by 2014. Natural gas consumption of an estimated 14bcm in 2009 can be expected to reach almost 17bcm by 2014. Romania’s gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.6bcm by 2014, providing an import requirement of at least 8.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian oil consumption of 31.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 126,000b/d to 241,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Domestic production is forecast to fall from an estimated 95,000b/d to 53,000b/d during the period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from 14bcm to 20bcm by 2019, which will be met by 13bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Romania holds sixth place just ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, behind Turkey and Russia. Its gas production growth outlook, asset maturity and under-developed competitive landscape work against the country and are exacerbated by poor country risk factors. There is little immediate chance of Romania catching up with either Turkey or Russia in the rankings. Romania is above the mid-point of the table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but progress from its current joint fifth-place ranking (shared with the Czech Republic and Azerbaijan) rather unlikely. The country achieves decent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and retail site intensity. Azerbaijan is capable of pulling ahead of Romania over the medium term.
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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
The latest Romania Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.79% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.53% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Romania’s estimated share of 2009 regional gas consumption was 2.09%, while its share of production is put at 1.32%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.13%, with the country accounting for 0.84% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level. Romanian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil demand could potentially grow at 3.0% per annum, rising to 254,000b/d by 2014. In spite of greater efforts by the OMV-backed national oil company Petrom, we see domestic oil production slipping from an estimated 95,000b/d in 2009 to 77,000b/d by 2014. This implies rising import levels, with volumes up to 177,000b/d by 2014. Natural gas consumption of an estimated 14bcm in 2009 can be expected to reach almost 17bcm by 2014. Romania’s gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.6bcm by 2014, providing an import requirement of at least 8.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian oil consumption of 31.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 126,000b/d to 241,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Domestic production is forecast to fall from an estimated 95,000b/d to 53,000b/d during the period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from 14bcm to 20bcm by 2019, which will be met by 13bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Romania holds sixth place just ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, behind Turkey and Russia. Its gas production growth outlook, asset maturity and under-developed competitive landscape work against the country and are exacerbated by poor country risk factors. There is little immediate chance of Romania catching up with either Turkey or Russia in the rankings. Romania is above the mid-point of the table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but progress from its current joint fifth-place ranking (shared with the Czech Republic and Azerbaijan) rather unlikely. The country achieves decent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and retail site intensity. Azerbaijan is capable of pulling ahead of Romania over the medium term.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
Buy Now : Market Research Report
