Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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At a time of fiscal pressure, Turkey's transport infrastructure is being gradually opened up to private sector investment. At the end of April, the route of the third Bosporus Bridge was finally announced by Turkey's government. BMI notes that this not only solved the issue of the location of the bridge itself, but also set in motion the much anticipated privatisation of a number of highways and the two Bosporus bridges; a privatisation that was predicated upon the existence of concrete plans for the route of the third bridge. The government had been procrastinating over announcing the route, fuelling land speculation on possible locations in several coastal areas of Istanbul. The final route, announced by the country's transport minister, Binali Yildirim, will be near the northern tip of the Bosporus Straits, between Garipce in the European side of the city and Poyraz in the Asian side. The bridge will extend for 1.3km and will be part of the Northern Marmara Highway that will run from Istanbul to Kocaeli and Sakarya. It will be built under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) model, with the tender to take place before the end of 2010. It is unclear, thus far, from the reports in the Turkish press, if the entire Northern Marmara Highway, including the bridge, will be tendered out, or if they will be separate contracts. The estimated cost for the bridge is US$6bn and construction is expected to take between four and five years to complete.
Half way through 2010, the 'macro' operating environment looks quite strongly favourable for the Turkish freight transport sector. The government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is democratic and stable. Most importantly the economy is experiencing a strong and broadly based recovery, leading BMI to characterise it as among the best-positioned emerging markets over the long term. We believe that the strength of the internal market, diversified industrial sectors, a healthy capital market, a pro-reform government and high long-term leverage potential all suggest Turkey will outperform its European emerging market peers. After contracting by nearly 5% in 2009, we expect GDP growth of 4.9% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011 (when the possibility of a global 'double-dip' slowdown will be an important factor). On the medium term to 2014, annual GDP growth will average a healthy 5.2%. Politically, the government's cooling relations with Israel may be part of a pattern where Ankara refocuses relations on Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East, diversifying its trade and therefore also its shipping and port links.
We expect airfreight volume to recover healthily in 2010 with 9.1% growth to 1.45mn tonnes, almost but not quite restoring the 10.0% drop experienced in recession-dominated 2009. Supported by strong fundamentals, we see average annual airfreight volume growth of 7.6%, well ahead of GDP, in the period running up to 2014. The only data series available for road transport is 'road freight carried' (volume x distance). We estimate that this indicator fell by 5.3% in 2009 and will recover by 3.6% in 2010. The trucking sector will benefit from general growth across the Turkish economy, but BMI sees it expanding at an annual average of 3.3% over our forecast period, which will lag behind GDP. Turkey's rail network is small compared to the country's other freight transport modes. In 2010 we expect railfreight volume to grow by 5%. Looking forward, railfreight will grow by 4.7% per year.
The downturn in European trade in 2009 had a massive impact on business at the Port of Ambarli (POA). General and liquid bulk cargoes fell by 57.1%. The recovery is now under way, but it will take four years before pre-2009 levels of business are restored. In 2010 we expect POA tonnage to grow by 31.1%, followed by 27.4% growth in 2011. The recovery will stretch across our five-year forecast period to 2014, during which average annual tonnage growth will reach 23.1%. The number of boxes handled at Ambarli was also hard hit by 2009's recession, contracting by 44.1%. Here, too, pre-2009 levels will not be achieved again until 2013.
In real terms Turkey's total trade (exports + imports) slumped by 10.3% in 2009, but will recover almost all that lost ground in 2010, with growth of 9.4%. Trade will expand a further 9.0% in 2011, and the average annual rate of growth over the next five years will be a healthy 8.0%. Rising living standards and a growing middle class will play their part in boosting import demand, which will grow by a mediumterm average of 8.3% per annum, ahead of exports at 7.6% per annum. In nominal terms exports will rise 19.3% in 2010 to US$169.9bn, while imports will grow 25.1% to US$187.1bn. Turkey will continue to run a balance of trade deficit for the rest of our medium-term forecast period running to 2014. We see downside risks to out Turkish freight forecast. The first is that, despite the country's domestically driven economic recovery, a harsher-than-expected 'double-dip' slowdown in Europe could have an impact, reducing trade, growth and freight demand in 2011. The second risk is political: although Ankara seems to be seeking a 'controlled' cooling in its relations with Israel, there is a possibility that the process could get somewhat out of hand and have a greater-than-desired impact on bilateral trade.
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Original Source : Turkey Freight Transport Market
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At a time of fiscal pressure, Turkey's transport infrastructure is being gradually opened up to private sector investment. At the end of April, the route of the third Bosporus Bridge was finally announced by Turkey's government. BMI notes that this not only solved the issue of the location of the bridge itself, but also set in motion the much anticipated privatisation of a number of highways and the two Bosporus bridges; a privatisation that was predicated upon the existence of concrete plans for the route of the third bridge. The government had been procrastinating over announcing the route, fuelling land speculation on possible locations in several coastal areas of Istanbul. The final route, announced by the country's transport minister, Binali Yildirim, will be near the northern tip of the Bosporus Straits, between Garipce in the European side of the city and Poyraz in the Asian side. The bridge will extend for 1.3km and will be part of the Northern Marmara Highway that will run from Istanbul to Kocaeli and Sakarya. It will be built under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) model, with the tender to take place before the end of 2010. It is unclear, thus far, from the reports in the Turkish press, if the entire Northern Marmara Highway, including the bridge, will be tendered out, or if they will be separate contracts. The estimated cost for the bridge is US$6bn and construction is expected to take between four and five years to complete.
Half way through 2010, the 'macro' operating environment looks quite strongly favourable for the Turkish freight transport sector. The government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is democratic and stable. Most importantly the economy is experiencing a strong and broadly based recovery, leading BMI to characterise it as among the best-positioned emerging markets over the long term. We believe that the strength of the internal market, diversified industrial sectors, a healthy capital market, a pro-reform government and high long-term leverage potential all suggest Turkey will outperform its European emerging market peers. After contracting by nearly 5% in 2009, we expect GDP growth of 4.9% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011 (when the possibility of a global 'double-dip' slowdown will be an important factor). On the medium term to 2014, annual GDP growth will average a healthy 5.2%. Politically, the government's cooling relations with Israel may be part of a pattern where Ankara refocuses relations on Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East, diversifying its trade and therefore also its shipping and port links.
We expect airfreight volume to recover healthily in 2010 with 9.1% growth to 1.45mn tonnes, almost but not quite restoring the 10.0% drop experienced in recession-dominated 2009. Supported by strong fundamentals, we see average annual airfreight volume growth of 7.6%, well ahead of GDP, in the period running up to 2014. The only data series available for road transport is 'road freight carried' (volume x distance). We estimate that this indicator fell by 5.3% in 2009 and will recover by 3.6% in 2010. The trucking sector will benefit from general growth across the Turkish economy, but BMI sees it expanding at an annual average of 3.3% over our forecast period, which will lag behind GDP. Turkey's rail network is small compared to the country's other freight transport modes. In 2010 we expect railfreight volume to grow by 5%. Looking forward, railfreight will grow by 4.7% per year.
The downturn in European trade in 2009 had a massive impact on business at the Port of Ambarli (POA). General and liquid bulk cargoes fell by 57.1%. The recovery is now under way, but it will take four years before pre-2009 levels of business are restored. In 2010 we expect POA tonnage to grow by 31.1%, followed by 27.4% growth in 2011. The recovery will stretch across our five-year forecast period to 2014, during which average annual tonnage growth will reach 23.1%. The number of boxes handled at Ambarli was also hard hit by 2009's recession, contracting by 44.1%. Here, too, pre-2009 levels will not be achieved again until 2013.
In real terms Turkey's total trade (exports + imports) slumped by 10.3% in 2009, but will recover almost all that lost ground in 2010, with growth of 9.4%. Trade will expand a further 9.0% in 2011, and the average annual rate of growth over the next five years will be a healthy 8.0%. Rising living standards and a growing middle class will play their part in boosting import demand, which will grow by a mediumterm average of 8.3% per annum, ahead of exports at 7.6% per annum. In nominal terms exports will rise 19.3% in 2010 to US$169.9bn, while imports will grow 25.1% to US$187.1bn. Turkey will continue to run a balance of trade deficit for the rest of our medium-term forecast period running to 2014. We see downside risks to out Turkish freight forecast. The first is that, despite the country's domestically driven economic recovery, a harsher-than-expected 'double-dip' slowdown in Europe could have an impact, reducing trade, growth and freight demand in 2011. The second risk is political: although Ankara seems to be seeking a 'controlled' cooling in its relations with Israel, there is a possibility that the process could get somewhat out of hand and have a greater-than-desired impact on bilateral trade.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : Turkey Freight Transport Market
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