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Introduction
Growth of cytotoxics will remain static over the forecast period with a CAGR of -0.1%. Several blockbuster products are due to undergo patent expiry over the forecast period and the loss of their branded sales will negatively impact on the growth of this market. But the launch of a number of drugs in rare indications will stabilize growth in this market and offset its decline from generic entry.
Scope
* In-depth analysis of the current and future cytotoxic therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot
* Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2009 to 2019
* Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
* Assess the strategies of the leading companies in the cytotoxics market
Highlights
Sales of cytotoxic drugs are forecast to decline in the seven major markets from $14 billion in 2009 to $13.9 billion by 2019, at a CAGR of -0.1%. The launch of Dacogen (decitabine; Eisai/Johnson & Johnson) and Vidaza (azacitidine; Celgene) in the 5EU and Japanese markets will slow down the decline in cytotoxic sales over the forecast period.
In 2009, Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis), Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis) and Alimta (pemetrexed; Eli Lilly) were the top three cytotoxics, with sales over $1 billion. Alimta will remain among the top three brands in 2019, along with Dacogen and Vidaza.
The keys events to impact the cytotoxics market in the forecast period involve new drug launches, approvals into new indications and patent expiries. Several products with annual sales of over $1 billion are due to undergo patent expiry over the forecast period, however, new drug launches in rarer indications will compensate for this loss of sales.
Reasons to Purchase
* Quantify the performance of each of the marketed cytotoxic therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2009 to 2019
* Acquire a detailed account of cytotoxic therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
* Benchmark the cytotoxic therapy cancer brands against their generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot
Table Of Contents
Overview
Catalyst
Summary
About Datamonitor healthcare
About the oncology pharmaceutical analysis team
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the cytotoxic therapies market
Related reports
Upcoming related reports
Table of Contents
1. MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for this report
Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class
L1A -Alkylating agents
L1B -Antimetabolites
L1C -Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products
L1D -Antineoplastic antibiotics
L1X2 -Platinum compounds
L1X9 -All other antineoplastics
2. MARKET OVERVIEW
Seven major markets
Current and future market overview
The cytotoxics therapies market is set to experience negative growth to 2019 with a large number of products losing their patents over the next 5 years
Patent expiries on the leading cytotoxic brands are set to occur within the next 5 years
The US is due to lose nearly half its value by 2019 due to generic erosion of key branded products
The antimetabolites are forecast to account for the largest proportion of market share through to 2019
The current leading cytotoxic brands are forecast to lose significant market share by 2019 due to patent expiry
The cytotoxics market will experience contract from $14 billion in 2009 to $13.9 billion in 2019 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
Opportunities and threats
Opportunity 1: aging population will result in increasing cancer incidence
Opportunity 2: oncology therapy sales continue to experience strong growth
Opportunity 3: high levels of unmet need
Threat 1: Pharma’s transition towards specialist secondary care indications may further increase competition in the oncology market
Threat 2: the cost of drug development continues to rise
Threat 3: ongoing cost-containment measures
US
Current and future market assessment
The large impact that generic erosion has on sales of branded drugs will cause a decrease in the US cytotoxics market
The cytotoxics market will shrink from $7 billion in 2009 to $4.4 billion in 2019 in the US
Opportunities and threats
Opportunity 1: with a large population and high healthcare expenditure, the US will continue to offer commercial opportunities for drug developers
Opportunity 2: healthcare reform will lead to an increase in the number of insured in the US
Opportunity 3: closure of the Medicare Part D coverage gap is good news for branded Pharma
Threat 1: growing regulatory pressures increase costs and decrease market penetration for Pharma
Threat 2: patent expiries and the resulting generic competition will erode branded sales revenues
Threat 3: in the long run, US health reform law will intensify cost-containment pressures
Japan
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market in Japan will experience growth of nearly 2% from 2009 to 2019
The cytotoxics market will grow from $2.4 billion in 2009 to $2.8 billion in 2019 in Japan
Opportunities and threats
Opportunity 1: the aging population represents a large and growing patient base
Opportunity 2: generic sales erosion remains low in Japan
Opportunity 3: decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs could accelerate new launches
Threat 1: government-enforced biennial cuts continue to have a negative effect on market growth
Threat 2: healthcare proposal to change current pricing system will be of limited benefit to Japanese Pharma
Threat 3: changes to reference pricing will bring down launch prices
Five major European markets (5EU)
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics therapies market in the five major EU markets will grow through to 2019 as a result of several key product launches
The cytotoxics market will grow from $4.6 billion in 2009 to $6.5 billion in 2019 in the five major European markets
Opportunities and threats
Opportunity 1: EU Cancer Task Force will improve the availability of information while generating funds for research
Opportunity 2: reorganization of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) expected to streamline the EU regulatory process
Threat 1: new European drug price reductions are likely to impact the growth of the pharma industry
Threat 2: higher generic uptake in less mature EU markets will impact on branded sales revenues
Threat 3: the European Commission inquiry into delays in generics market entry will have wide-ranging ramifications for the branded and generics industry
Threat 4: Spain’s price cuts and reference groups are driving drug prices down
Threat 5: new low reimbursement rate created in France signals the growing pressure for cost-containment
Threat 6: NICE will remain a significant hurdle to commercialization of cancer drugs in the UK, despite relaxation of its cost-effectiveness criteria
Threat 7: Germany’s new cost-effectiveness analysis system could add to the downward pressure on drug prices
Threat 8: additional cuts to the price of oncology drugs are forthcoming in Italy under its pay-for-performance scheme
France
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2009 to $1.8 billion in 2019 in France
Germany
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.1 billion in 2009 to $1.6 billion in 2019 in Germany
Italy
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.8 billion in 2009 to $1.2 billion in 2019 in Italy
Spain
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.7 billion in 2009 to $1.1 billion in 2019 in Spain
UK
Current and future market assessment
The cytotoxics market will grow from $5m in 2009 to $1 billion in 2019 in the UK
Rest of the world snapshot
Current market assessment
Rest of the World sales represent 22% of the global cytotoxics market
Opportunities and threats
Opportunity 1: incidence of cancer is forecast to increase in the BRIC countries
Opportunity 2: emerging markets continue to attract despite challenges
Threat: cost of new therapies is a barrier to market penetration
3. BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
Alimta and Taxotere will remain among the top 4 leading cytotoxic brands in both 2009 and 2019
Efficacy and toxicity of a drug are the most important drivers of cytotoxic brand choice
Trends in marketing strategies
Leading cytotoxic brands
Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2019
Taxotere sales are forecast to fall after 2010 to $723m in 2019
Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2019
Eloxatin sales will continue to fall through to 2019 in response to genericization
Alimta (pemetrexed; Eli Lilly)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2019
Alimta’s sales are forecast to exceed $2 billion in 2016 before dropping to $0.7 billion in 2019
Gemzar (gemcitabine; Eli Lilly)
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Brand forecast to 2019
Gemzar sales are forecast to decrease after 2012, losing more than 50% of sales after 2013
4. KEY DEVELOPERS
Strategic overview
Trends in corporate strategy
Approval in multiple tumor types is most likely to result in significant sales
A mature and heavily genericized market means Big Pharma’s experience is crucial
Currently there are relatively few novel cytotoxics in development
Sanofi-Aventis
Corporate strategy
Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment
Eli Lilly
Corporate strategy
Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment
Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Other
Datamonitor reports
Appendix A – Market Assumptions
Forecasting assumptions
New product launches
Patent expiries
Rest of class definition
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard units
Country group definitions
Rest of the World
The ‘all other EU countries’ group
The ‘Other non-EU countries’ group
Forecast methodology
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Exchange rates
Report methodology
Appendix B
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
About the Oncology analysis team
Disclaimer
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