Browse the complete Report on: United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest UK Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.44% of Developed Europe regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 26.54% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. The UK’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 21.59%, while it contributed 25.68% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 20.28%, with production accounting for 21.67% of the regional market. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
UK real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.7% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 1.0% in 2010. We are assuming 2.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. We are currently forecasting 1.38mn b/d of oil output in 2010. By 2014, UK oil production is unlikely to be below 0.99mn b/d. Oil consumption is expected to have reached 1.67mn b/d by 2014, providing a net crude import requirement of at least 687,000b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in UK oil production of 40.4%, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 1.38mn b/d in 2010 to 0.82mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to decrease by 2.1%, imports should rise from an estimated 0.29mn b/d to 0.81mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 66bcm to 45bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 92bcm to 100bcm, requiring imports reaching 55bcm, largely in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the UK’s long-term political risk score is 92.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 67.9, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. The UK has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a major, but mature and highly competitive, upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is also competitive and deregulated. International and domestic operators control gas distribution and supply, as well as electricity generation and distribution.

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Browse the complete Report on: Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Slovakia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.39% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing no significant contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Slovakia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.82%, while its share of production was negligible. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast be 0.86%. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Slovak real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.9% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.7% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.0% in 2010-2014. Beyond the likely weakness of 2009/10, oil consumption is forecast to rise rapidly, averaging around 4% per annum. There is scope for oil consumption to reach 93,000b/d by 2014. This volume will be imported, largely from Russia. Natural gas demand may also rise at a more rapid rate if the power industry builds new gas-fired plants, although the residential gas market is close to saturation. Our forecast is for Slovakia to be consuming 6.7bcm of gas by 2014, virtually all of which will be imported.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovak oil consumption of 29.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 81,000b/d to 107,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to up from an estimated 5.5bcm to 8.2bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Slovakia holds 13th place behind Croatia and Turkmenistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked 13th ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Licensing, privatisation and country risk factors help its score, although these are offset by hydrocarbons weakness. Over the medium term, Slovakia is at some risk from Ukraine below. Slovakia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings. Only in oil demand growth potential does the country score particularly well, and progress further up the rankings from 13th place seems unlikely over the medium term. Country risk factors are generally favourable and there is an established competitive landscape. Uzbekistan is just one point below it in the regional rankings, and there is some longer-term potential for the country to mount a challenge for Slovakia’s 13th place.

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Browse the complete Report on: Romania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Romania Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.79% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.53% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Romania’s estimated share of 2009 regional gas consumption was 2.09%, while its share of production is put at 1.32%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.13%, with the country accounting for 0.84% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level. Romanian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil demand could potentially grow at 3.0% per annum, rising to 254,000b/d by 2014. In spite of greater efforts by the OMV-backed national oil company Petrom, we see domestic oil production slipping from an estimated 95,000b/d in 2009 to 77,000b/d by 2014. This implies rising import levels, with volumes up to 177,000b/d by 2014. Natural gas consumption of an estimated 14bcm in 2009 can be expected to reach almost 17bcm by 2014. Romania’s gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.6bcm by 2014, providing an import requirement of at least 8.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian oil consumption of 31.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 126,000b/d to 241,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Domestic production is forecast to fall from an estimated 95,000b/d to 53,000b/d during the period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from 14bcm to 20bcm by 2019, which will be met by 13bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Romania holds sixth place just ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, behind Turkey and Russia. Its gas production growth outlook, asset maturity and under-developed competitive landscape work against the country and are exacerbated by poor country risk factors. There is little immediate chance of Romania catching up with either Turkey or Russia in the rankings. Romania is above the mid-point of the table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but progress from its current joint fifth-place ranking (shared with the Czech Republic and Azerbaijan) rather unlikely. The country achieves decent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and retail site intensity. Azerbaijan is capable of pulling ahead of Romania over the medium term.


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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.49% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing less than 0.1% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Poland’s share of 2009 gas consumption was an estimated 2.09%, while it makes an insignificant contribution to regional supply. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.24%.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Polish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.7% in 2009, followed by forecast 3.4% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2014. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 568,000b/d by 2014, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 558,000b/d. We are assuming that gas consumption will reach 17.5bcm by 2014, requiring imports of 13.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Polish oil consumption of 15.5%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 512,000b/d to 604,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 13.5bcm to 20.3bcm by 2019, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 50.9% between 2010 and 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland shares third place with Russia in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares third place with Bulgaria in BMI’s updated and enlarged upstream Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. Its licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Russia is three points behind in the regional upstream ranking, and is likely to catch Poland over the longer term. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment Ratings, ranked third behind only Russia and Turkey. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-topping competitive landscape


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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.60% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.72%, which is forecast to rise to 1.90% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 6.3% in 2009, followed by forecast 0.1% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.6% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption fell from 198,000b/d in 1990 to a low of 138,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated 164,000b/d in 2009. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 11.5bcm in 2009 to around 14.8bcm in 2014 – implying that net gas imports will reach 12.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 128,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 11.5bcm to 18.6bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Hungary holds ninth place just behind the Czech Republic in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place with Croatia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. There is a chance that the Caspian states will break free of Hungary and pull clear. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan and Slovenia. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.


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Browse the complete Report on: Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.61% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.00%, while it accounted for 4.99% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.67%, with a 4.37% share of production.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
German real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.37mn b/d after declining demand in 2009/10. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 81.5bcm in 2010 to 93.0bcm by 2014. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 13.0bcm in 2010 to 11.5bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.65%, with volumes peaking at 2.40mn b/d in 2012, then heading lower to 2.25mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 52,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 81.5bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 89bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81.5bcm in 2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 85.8, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.0, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.

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Browse the complete Report on: Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.40% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 6.20% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Denmark’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.09%, while it contributed 3.21% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be unchanged at 1.09%, with a 2.09% contribution to regional supply. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Danish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.1% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 1.3% in 2010. We are assuming 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2014. We expect the country’s 2010 oil and liquids production to be about 258,000b/d, down from an estimated 260,000b/d in 2009. By 2014, liquids volumes look set to have slipped to 230,000b/d. Oil demand could rise to 188,000b/d by 2014, implying net exports slipping from an estimated 75,000b/d in 2009 to 42,000b/d by the end of the period. The estimated 2010 gas production of 8.2bcm is expected to fall to 5.5bcm by 2014. Domestic gas consumption rising from an estimated 4.8bcm to 5.1bcm over the period 2010-2014 suggests that net exports will fall from 3.4bcm to 0.4bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast a decrease in Danish oil production of 41.9%, with output slipping from an estimated 258,000b/d in 2010 to 150,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given a mere 1.4% increase in oil consumption over the period, exports of 74,000b/d will turn into net imports of 39,000b/d by 2019. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 8.2bcm to 3.0bcm by 2019. Given gas demand rising by 13.7% during the period, net imports of 2.4bcm will be required by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Denmark’s long-term political risk score is 93.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 72.5, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of the key company DONG Energy. Denmark has a mature and competitive upstream oil and gas segment, featuring national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and deregulated.

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Browse the complete Report on: Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.41% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.24%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.92% by the end of the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Czech real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.1% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.2% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.2% in 2010-2014. Assuming an average post-2009 rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 228,000b/d in 2014 – implying imports of at least 216,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise by an annual 4% from an estimated 8.3bcm in 2009 to around 15bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech oil consumption of 19.8%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 187,000b/d to 236,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 120% from an estimated 8.8bcm to 17.9bcm by 2019, met by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The Czech Republic takes eighth place behind Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings with Hungary, Croatia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It shares fifth place with Kazakhstan and Romania. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Azerbaijan below is likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.

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Browse the complete Report on: Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.65% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.6% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 3.1% in 2010. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.24mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.32mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 25.00%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.28mn b/d in 2010 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.37%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.05mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 186bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 98.5bcm to 113.1bcm, leaving net exports falling to 51.9bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.

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Browse complete Report Oil and Gas Supply Demand Outlook in the Americas to 2020 – Increasing Oil and Gas Production Changing the Industry Dynamics

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GBI Research’s oil market report, “Oil and Gas Supply Demand Outlook in the Americas to 2020 – Increasing Oil and Gas Production Changing the Industry Dynamics”, provides an in-depth analysis of the oil and gas supply and demand outlook in the Americas and highlights the various concerns, shifting trends and concerns. This energy report provides forecasts for the crude oil production and consumption sectors of the oil and natural gas industry to 2020. The report also provides segmental forecasts of the crude oil and natural gas trade balance in North America and South America and highlights the major countries in the region. The report discusses the regulatory structure and infrastructure in the different countries in the region. The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

North America is expected to witness growth in the production of both oil and gas in the next 10 years. In addition to strong growth in demand, the development of oil and gas shale fields will result in strong growth in oil and gas production from North America. Between 2010 and 2020, North American oil and gas production rates are forecast to increase at AAGRs of 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively. By 2015, Brazil will emerge as South and Central America’s largest crude oil producer, surpassing Venezuela and Mexico. With substantial reserves found in the waters off Brazil, the country is expected to increase its production by an average of 7.8% per annum. Further, amidst the increasing usage of hydroelectricity and ethanol production from sugarcane, the demand for fossil fuels is expected to remain low in Brazil in the medium to long term.

The report provides in-depth analysis on the oil and gas supply and demand scenario in the Americas. Its scope includes:

The report will enhance your decision making capability. It will allow you to:

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.

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Browse complete Report Oil and Gas Supply Demand Outlook in Asia Pacific to 2020 – Growing Appetite for Oil and Gas Changing the Global Consumption Outlook

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GBI Research’s energy report, “Oil and Gas Supply Demand Outlook in Asia Pacific to 2020 – Growing Appetite for Oil and Gas Changing the Global Consumption Outlook”, provides an in-depth analysis of the oil and gas supply and demand outlook in the Asia Pacific region and highlights the various concerns, shifting trends and concerns in the Asia Pacific oil and gas market. The report provides forecasts for the crude oil production and consumption sectors of the oil and natural gas industry to 2020. The report also provides segmental forecasts of the crude oil and natural gas trade balance in Asia Pacific and highlights the major countries in the region. The report discusses the regulatory structure and infrastructure in the different countries in the region. The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

The production of both oil and gas in Asia Pacific will grow in the next 10 years. Between 2010 and 2020, Asia Pacific’s oil and gas production rates are forecast to increase at AAGRs of 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively.

China will remain the leading crude oil producer in Asia Pacific despite declining production. China’s crude oil production is expected to decline at an average annual rate of 3.7% between 2010 and 2020. Despite its production declining at such an alarming rate, the country will produce more than thrice that of the next largest producer, Malaysia, in 2020.

The report provides in-depth analysis on the oil and gas supply and demand scenario in Asia Pacific. Its scope includes:

The report will enhance your decision making capability. It will allow you to:

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.

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Browse the complete Report on: United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.35% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 67.45% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 86.93%, while it contributed 75.94% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 86.82%, with 74.69% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
US real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.4% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.29mn b/d in 2009. By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 18.69mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.46mn b/d by 2014, requiring crude imports of 12.31mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 7.37% fall in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.32mn b/d in 2012 before declining to 6.85mn b/d in 2019. Given that oil consumption is forecast to rise by 2.00%, imports rise from an estimated 11.40mn b/d in 2010 to 12.32mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 530bcm in 2015, then rally to 560bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 658bcm to 737bcm, requiring net imports to rise to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 81.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.8, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
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Original Source : Oil and Gas Market
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