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The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.65% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.6% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 3.1% in 2010. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.24mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.32mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 25.00%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.28mn b/d in 2010 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.37%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.05mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 186bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 98.5bcm to 113.1bcm, leaving net exports falling to 51.9bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.65% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.6% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 3.1% in 2010. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.24mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.32mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 25.00%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.28mn b/d in 2010 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.37%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.05mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 186bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 98.5bcm to 113.1bcm, leaving net exports falling to 51.9bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
Buy Now : Market Research Report
