Browse the complete Report on: United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest UK Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.44% of Developed Europe regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 26.54% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. The UK’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 21.59%, while it contributed 25.68% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 20.28%, with production accounting for 21.67% of the regional market. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
UK real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.7% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 1.0% in 2010. We are assuming 2.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. We are currently forecasting 1.38mn b/d of oil output in 2010. By 2014, UK oil production is unlikely to be below 0.99mn b/d. Oil consumption is expected to have reached 1.67mn b/d by 2014, providing a net crude import requirement of at least 687,000b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in UK oil production of 40.4%, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 1.38mn b/d in 2010 to 0.82mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to decrease by 2.1%, imports should rise from an estimated 0.29mn b/d to 0.81mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 66bcm to 45bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 92bcm to 100bcm, requiring imports reaching 55bcm, largely in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the UK’s long-term political risk score is 92.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 67.9, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. The UK has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a major, but mature and highly competitive, upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is also competitive and deregulated. International and domestic operators control gas distribution and supply, as well as electricity generation and distribution.

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Browse the complete Report on: Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.36% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.46% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Ukraine’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 8.04%, while its share of production is put at 2.47%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 7.76%, with the country accounting for 2.05% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Ukraine’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 15.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 5.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.1% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/10, reasonable and consistent growth in oil consumption seems likely, averaging up to 3.0% per annum. This suggests that the country will be consuming around 358,000b/d of oil by 2014. With oil production likely to slip below 70,000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 292,000b/d by 2014. BMI forecasts that gas demand will rise from an estimated 53.7bcm in 2009 to 60.5bcm by 2014. Domestic production, largely in the hands of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy but with some international oil company (IOC) involvement, should also increase, from an estimated 20.5bcm in 2009 to at least 22.0bcm in 2010-2012.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast a decrease in Ukraine oil and gas liquids production of 31.4%, with volumes falling steadily from the estimated 2010 level of 75,000b/d to 51,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 29.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 416,000b/d by 2019. Gas production should peak at around 22bcm in 2010-2012, then fall to 17bcm by 2019. Gas imports are set to reach 51bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Ukraine holds seventh place behind Romania in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now occupies 14th place ahead only of Slovenia in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to only modest hydrocarbons resources. Its gas reserves and favourable licensing regime account for much of the upstream score, but country risk factors and privatisation activity are less impressive. Ukraine arguably has the potential to challenge Slovakia above it, and is at little risk from Slovenia below. Ukraine is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, this quarter claiming fourth place below Poland. There are a few high scores but progress further up the rankings is unlikely. There are good scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity and population. The Czech Republic, Kazakhstan and Romania are four points below it in the regional rankings, so Ukraine should be at little near-term risk.
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Browse the complete Report on: Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Slovakia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.39% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing no significant contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Slovakia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.82%, while its share of production was negligible. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast be 0.86%. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Slovak real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.9% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.7% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.0% in 2010-2014. Beyond the likely weakness of 2009/10, oil consumption is forecast to rise rapidly, averaging around 4% per annum. There is scope for oil consumption to reach 93,000b/d by 2014. This volume will be imported, largely from Russia. Natural gas demand may also rise at a more rapid rate if the power industry builds new gas-fired plants, although the residential gas market is close to saturation. Our forecast is for Slovakia to be consuming 6.7bcm of gas by 2014, virtually all of which will be imported.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovak oil consumption of 29.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 81,000b/d to 107,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to up from an estimated 5.5bcm to 8.2bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Slovakia holds 13th place behind Croatia and Turkmenistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked 13th ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Licensing, privatisation and country risk factors help its score, although these are offset by hydrocarbons weakness. Over the medium term, Slovakia is at some risk from Ukraine below. Slovakia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings. Only in oil demand growth potential does the country score particularly well, and progress further up the rankings from 13th place seems unlikely over the medium term. Country risk factors are generally favourable and there is an established competitive landscape. Uzbekistan is just one point below it in the regional rankings, and there is some longer-term potential for the country to mount a challenge for Slovakia’s 13th place.

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Browse the complete Report on: Romania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Romania Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.79% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.53% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Romania’s estimated share of 2009 regional gas consumption was 2.09%, while its share of production is put at 1.32%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.13%, with the country accounting for 0.84% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level. Romanian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil demand could potentially grow at 3.0% per annum, rising to 254,000b/d by 2014. In spite of greater efforts by the OMV-backed national oil company Petrom, we see domestic oil production slipping from an estimated 95,000b/d in 2009 to 77,000b/d by 2014. This implies rising import levels, with volumes up to 177,000b/d by 2014. Natural gas consumption of an estimated 14bcm in 2009 can be expected to reach almost 17bcm by 2014. Romania’s gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.6bcm by 2014, providing an import requirement of at least 8.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian oil consumption of 31.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 126,000b/d to 241,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Domestic production is forecast to fall from an estimated 95,000b/d to 53,000b/d during the period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from 14bcm to 20bcm by 2019, which will be met by 13bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Romania holds sixth place just ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, behind Turkey and Russia. Its gas production growth outlook, asset maturity and under-developed competitive landscape work against the country and are exacerbated by poor country risk factors. There is little immediate chance of Romania catching up with either Turkey or Russia in the rankings. Romania is above the mid-point of the table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but progress from its current joint fifth-place ranking (shared with the Czech Republic and Azerbaijan) rather unlikely. The country achieves decent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and retail site intensity. Azerbaijan is capable of pulling ahead of Romania over the medium term.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.49% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing less than 0.1% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Poland’s share of 2009 gas consumption was an estimated 2.09%, while it makes an insignificant contribution to regional supply. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.24%.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Polish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.7% in 2009, followed by forecast 3.4% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2014. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 568,000b/d by 2014, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 558,000b/d. We are assuming that gas consumption will reach 17.5bcm by 2014, requiring imports of 13.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Polish oil consumption of 15.5%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 512,000b/d to 604,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 13.5bcm to 20.3bcm by 2019, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 50.9% between 2010 and 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland shares third place with Russia in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares third place with Bulgaria in BMI’s updated and enlarged upstream Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. Its licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Russia is three points behind in the regional upstream ranking, and is likely to catch Poland over the longer term. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment Ratings, ranked third behind only Russia and Turkey. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-topping competitive landscape


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.60% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.72%, which is forecast to rise to 1.90% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 6.3% in 2009, followed by forecast 0.1% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.6% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption fell from 198,000b/d in 1990 to a low of 138,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated 164,000b/d in 2009. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 11.5bcm in 2009 to around 14.8bcm in 2014 – implying that net gas imports will reach 12.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 128,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 11.5bcm to 18.6bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Hungary holds ninth place just behind the Czech Republic in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place with Croatia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. There is a chance that the Caspian states will break free of Hungary and pull clear. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan and Slovenia. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.


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Browse the complete Report on: Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.61% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.00%, while it accounted for 4.99% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.67%, with a 4.37% share of production.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
German real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.37mn b/d after declining demand in 2009/10. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 81.5bcm in 2010 to 93.0bcm by 2014. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 13.0bcm in 2010 to 11.5bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.65%, with volumes peaking at 2.40mn b/d in 2012, then heading lower to 2.25mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 52,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 81.5bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 89bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81.5bcm in 2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 85.8, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.0, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.

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Browse the complete Report on: Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.40% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 6.20% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Denmark’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.09%, while it contributed 3.21% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be unchanged at 1.09%, with a 2.09% contribution to regional supply. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Danish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.1% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 1.3% in 2010. We are assuming 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2014. We expect the country’s 2010 oil and liquids production to be about 258,000b/d, down from an estimated 260,000b/d in 2009. By 2014, liquids volumes look set to have slipped to 230,000b/d. Oil demand could rise to 188,000b/d by 2014, implying net exports slipping from an estimated 75,000b/d in 2009 to 42,000b/d by the end of the period. The estimated 2010 gas production of 8.2bcm is expected to fall to 5.5bcm by 2014. Domestic gas consumption rising from an estimated 4.8bcm to 5.1bcm over the period 2010-2014 suggests that net exports will fall from 3.4bcm to 0.4bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast a decrease in Danish oil production of 41.9%, with output slipping from an estimated 258,000b/d in 2010 to 150,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given a mere 1.4% increase in oil consumption over the period, exports of 74,000b/d will turn into net imports of 39,000b/d by 2019. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 8.2bcm to 3.0bcm by 2019. Given gas demand rising by 13.7% during the period, net imports of 2.4bcm will be required by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Denmark’s long-term political risk score is 93.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 72.5, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of the key company DONG Energy. Denmark has a mature and competitive upstream oil and gas segment, featuring national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and deregulated.

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Browse the complete Report on: Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.41% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.24%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.92% by the end of the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Czech real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.1% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.2% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.2% in 2010-2014. Assuming an average post-2009 rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 228,000b/d in 2014 – implying imports of at least 216,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise by an annual 4% from an estimated 8.3bcm in 2009 to around 15bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech oil consumption of 19.8%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 187,000b/d to 236,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 120% from an estimated 8.8bcm to 17.9bcm by 2019, met by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The Czech Republic takes eighth place behind Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings with Hungary, Croatia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It shares fifth place with Kazakhstan and Romania. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Azerbaijan below is likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.

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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.65% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average of US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.6% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 3.1% in 2010. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.24mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.32mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 25.00%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.28mn b/d in 2010 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.37%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.05mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 186bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 98.5bcm to 113.1bcm, leaving net exports falling to 51.9bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.

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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.55%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.71%.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Bulgarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, followed by a forecast decline of 2.6% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.3% in 2010-2014. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 127,000b/d by 2014. Imports can be expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by 2014, demand is heading for 5.6bcm, requiring imports of 4.1bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 18.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 116,000b/d in 2010 to 140,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 0.2bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.1bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2010 level of 3.8bcm to 6.0bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bulgaria takes 10th place behind Hungary in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now claims a share of third place with Poland in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table, with Russia and/or Turkey likely to challenge during the next few quarters. Bulgaria now holds last place, below even Uzbekistan, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, and gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.

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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: South Korea Mining Report Q3 2010
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As a country that lacks many natural resources, South Korea is heavily dependent on imported raw materials. As a result, the country believes that FTAs and JVs are the most reliable ways to secure future supplies of raw materials and it is this mindset which is the driving force behind two planned FTAs with Australia and Peru, both of which are rich in natural minerals and resources. South Korea’s industrial giants are also branching out in a bid to secure raw material supplies. In Q310, POSCO, the country’s largest steelmaker, purchased a stake of 7.8% in a coal mine in Mozambique in order to secure supplies as the prices of raw materials rise. POSCO also announced a JV with Korean Resources to take a 60% stake in Chinese company Yongxin Rare Earth Metal. This US$8.8mn deal is considered an ideal way to bypass China’s restriction on rare earth mineral exports, which are used in industries such as wind energy.
However, at the time of writing, POSCO is still facing frustration with its planned plant in Orissa, India. With construction being halted for five years due to protests from local land owners, there have been further land disputes in 2010 which has led to another delay. Licences have still not been issued and this has forced POSCO to begin looking for investment opportunities elsewhere in India. The company is currently in negotiations for the construction of a new steel plant in Karnaka.
Despite this, one of South Korea’s biggest success stories in H110 has been its steel industry. Showing clear signs of recovery, the South Korea Iron and Steel Association announced that steel consumption in H110 had increased by 12% y-o-y and risen to 51.4mn tonnes. Meanwhile, steel output increased by 11% y-o-y, reaching 63mn tonnes and back to the pre-downturn levels of 2008. The country’s steel exports are expected to grow by 5% to 21mn tonnes, a substantial improvement on 2009 levels which dropped 3% to 20mn tonnes.
Meanwhile, as environmental concerns become ever more familiar, South Korea is looking to further develop its nuclear power industry and seek out new uranium supplies. A number of companies are searching for global uranium deposits in which to invest. South Korea currently operates 20 nuclear power stations and aims to build eight more by 2016, as well as develop small and medium-sized nuclear power reactors. As a result, a consortium has been arranged which will invest US$81.8mn in technical advances and design. The consortium is headed by state owned Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) and includes 13 local companies, of which POSCO and STX Heavy Industries Co are two.
Mining Forecast
BMI forecasts that while the Korean mining industry has improved in Q310, the rate of growth is stable and there is unlikely to be any unexpected growth spurts in the coming years. We forecast that by the end of 2010, the industry value will have increased to US$2.98bn and will continue to grow until 2014 when we expect the total industry value to reach US$4.26bn.

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Original Source : –Mining Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Ukraine Metals Report Q3 2010
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The Ukrainian steel and aluminium industries are entering a period of heightened uncertainty, with tenuous growth revealing inherent structural weaknesses – namely a lack of integration – while predatory Russian investors are aggressively pursuing controversial acquisitions.
In the first five months of 2010, Ukrainian crude steel output grew 24.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 14.11mn tonnes, in line with BMI’s expectations. Ukrainian crude steel output stabilised at around 2.8- 3.0mn tonnes per month in Q210, while rolled output was around 2.7mn tonnes with little movement in terms of month-on-month (m-o-m) growth.
Growth comes from a very low base, with output at least 75% below the industry’s full potential. Growth appears to being spurred more by domestic consumption than exports, with flat products leading the way. Tubes are also providing a boost to output. In the first five months of the year, Ukrainian tubes production was up 9% y-o-y to 639,000 tonnes with tube plants increasing output by 6.7% to 542,400 tonnes and steel works by 26.5% to 97,000 tonnes. The recovery of the automotive industry, which collapsed in 2009, is shoring up flats growth, but a full recovery would require an increase in demand from the construction industry, which is currently in stagnation.
Based on the trends observed in H110 in both crude output data and within steel-consuming industries, BMI forecasts 12.9% growth in crude steel output to 33.6mn tonnes in 2010 and 13.2% growth in hotrolled output to 27.4mn tonnes. However, domestic output will struggle to keep up with market trends in 2010, with industry sources expecting a 16% growth in domestic hot rolled steel consumption. Structural constraints within the industry, coupled with policy flux and uncertainties regarding future sector consolidation, will militate against the domestic industry to the benefit of imports. The decline in the value of the euro and a fluctuation in steel prices are contributing to increasing uncertainty in the industry and holding back output.
Notable problems include a lack of access to high quality iron ore and coking coal at a competitive price. In addition, merger and acquisition activity by secretive front companies associated with Russian oligarchs is causing alarm and controversy within the industry. The Ukrainian steel industry is in critical need of consolidation and looks set to follow the global trend in which steelmakers are seeking integration with raw material suppliers to cut costs and bolster profitability. The choice for the industry is largely between being controlled by Ukrainian or Russian oligarchs. Russian oligarchs have snapped up control of the Industrial Union of Donbass (ISD), the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant and other downstream mills, while System Capital Management, the holding company of Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, which owns Ukraine’s Metinvest, is seeking to consolidate its hold on the Ukrainian steel industry.
Although the election of Viktor Yanokovych as president marks a turn towards a more pro-Russia foreign policy, it is still unclear to what extent the new president will tolerate Russian acquisitions in the Ukrainian steel industry. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov reportedly indicated in June 2010 that the government would seek to protect Ilyich Iron and Steel Works from a take-over by a Russian group of investors. Yanokovych also called for an investigation after a group of unnamed Russian investors registered in Cyprus claimed that it had actually acquired Ilyich by buying a 90.41% stake, despite the company’s board chairman Volodymyr Boyko protesting that the acquisition was illegal. He has called for Illyich to be merged with Akhmetov’s Metinvest, as he is politically allied with Yanokovych. The merger would create one of the world’s top 20 steelmakers by volume and makes commercial sense: more than 70% of Ilyich’s ore supplies and a quarter of its coke are already supplied by Metinvest.
Consolidation also makes sense amid a national financial crisis. The Zaporizhstal steel plant has also been a target for acquisition by another group of unknown Russian businessmen financially backed by the Russian government’s Vnesheconombank. Its bid appears to have muscled out a take-over move by Akhmetov, who was seeking a partnership with South Korea’s POSCO. The Ukrainska Pravda news agency said in May 2010 that the deal amounted to US$1.7bn but gave no further details.
Meanwhile, although we expect a full recovery in aluminium by 2014, it is dependent on RusAl maintaining operations in Ukraine. RusAl indicated even before the financial crisis that it may close the 130,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Zalk smelter as it was unprofitable to keep it running. With output falling 56% y-o-y to 50,000 tonnes in 2010 – the worst performance in the RusAl group – and the debtridden company already facing severe financial problems, it may consider a permanent closure and sale.
If RusAl can find a way to improve efficiency, BMI believes the smelter can be returned to full capacity after the recession, assisted by a recovery in supplies to the automotive industry. However, until RusAl announces that it will close Zalk, BMI will forecast a return to full capacity within five years.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Tel: +1-888-989-8004
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Original Source : –Metal Market
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