Browse the complete Report on: Brazil Autos Report Q4 2010
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Supported by the strength of the private consumption and availability of credit for vehicle purchases, Brazil’s auto industry shifted 1.56mn units during H110 – up 9% year-on-year (y-o-y), and closely in line with BMI's forecast of nearly 10% y-o-y growth, to sales of 3.5mn units by the end of 2010. BMI expects growth thereafter to average 9.5% y-o-y, taking the total market to 5.12mn units by the end of 2014. We are mindful of the month-on-month (m-o-m) fall in demand – which has prompted many to believe that the market is cooling down. To that, we see Brazil’s growing reliance on the Chinese demand and an expected slowdown in the latter, as the biggest risk to our forecast.
From the point of view of production, reports of recent labour conflicts and the fact that much of the country’s production capacity has already been used, makes us less optimistic about very strong production growth during the forecast period. After an expected 15% y-o-y growth, to close to 1.7mn units, in 2010 and an average 7% y-o-y growth between 2011 and 2014, we expect Brazil’s total production capacity to reach 4.6mn units by 2014.
Following from this view, we see Mexico as the closest rival to Brazil’s position in BMI’s Business Environment Rankings for the auto industry in the Americas. With a current score of 60.7% (down from 65.5% in the last quarter) in terms of risks, Brazil lags behind Mexico by at least six points – a gap which may be accentuated should labour conflicts continue.
Although an expected slowdown in Brazilian demand will mean that past growth rates will no more be attainable, it will continue to rank Brazil among the most promising markets globally. Therefore, it is not surprising that General Motors Company (GM) expects to sell nearly 1mn vehicles in Brazil by 2014, up from the 600,000 units sold in 2009. Latin America's largest car market accounted for 10% of GM's global sales last year and such is its confidence in the country the firm is looking to spend nearly BRL5bn (US$2.8bn) in Brazil by 2012.
In addition to Brazil's burgeoning middle classes, GM's sales will be helped by the low vehicle ownership rate, which was fewer than 12% of the population in 2009. Help will also come from the popularity of GM's core Chevrolet line-up, for which Brazil is the second largest market in the world after China. The success of the model helped GM corner a 20.4% share of Brazil's passenger car market last year, making it the third most popular carmaker behind Fiat and Volkswagen.
In the commercial vehicle segment, MAN has unveiled trucks in Brazil capable of running on 100% biodiesel (B100) fuel, in a move which could help solidify its lead in Latin America's biggest truck market. BMI believes the German firm's launch of B100 trucks is a well-timed strategy, as it falls in line with the government's aim of promoting the use of biodiesels
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Browse the complete Report on: Vietnam Autos Report Q4 2010
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Vietnam's new vehicle market is characterised by fluctuating tariffs, which often make it hard to identify sustainable sales patterns. After there was evidence of tariff changes kicking in as sales for Q110 were down by 2%, despite an 80% increase in passenger car sales, total sales had returned to positive growth of 5% by the end of H110, although passenger car growth was lower at 29%. The MPV/SUV segment is still impacted by the higher special consumption tax with sales down 10%, while commercial vehicle sales were up just 2% y-o-y. While we believe that consumers appear to be adjusting to the new tax, as shown in the improvement during Q210, we have lowered our forecast for sales of domestically-produced vehicles to growth of 7.8%. This allows for some further growth in Q310, although from there on we believe the results of Q409, which were inflated by tax cuts, will be difficult to replicate.
Looking ahead, with vehicle imports set to surge when tariffs are removed under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) in 2018, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) is looking to make the domestic industry competitive in the meantime. BMI sees an underdeveloped supplier segment as a major area for concern, which will be addressed through higher import tariffs on parts that can be made domestically. Higher rates will also be applied to vehicles imported as completely built units. In order to facilitate the sector's development, MOIT has proposed that investment projects for the auto industry should be given preference. However, BMI believes that there is a vicious circle in the Vietnamese industry in that carmakers are reluctant to invest in production without a well developed supplier base and suppliers will want to see growth potential in vehicle assembly before investing.
Fluctuating tariffs are still a factor in Vietnam's 12th position out of 14 markets in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the autos sector in Asia Pacific. The highest score is for market risk, which stands at 85.0. Its country risk score has also risen from 49.8 to 51.5, taking its total score for risks to realisation of returns up to 68.2. Vietnam is still a country we would expect to see climb the ratings in the future, particularly if its vehicle tariff policy becomes more consistent.
Only four of the top 10 locally producing carmakers posted positive growth in H110, although the competitive landscape remained largely the same. Toyota Motor retained its lead with growth of 29%, down slightly from the 34% growth of Q110. Visuco again achieved the best growth of the top 10 manufacturers with a 72% rise in sales, up from 37% in Q110. Mekong, representing Fiat, Ssangyong and PMC, registered the worst sales with a 65% decline. We would expect to see Nissan Motor claim a greater share in future after beginning domestic production of its Grand Livina MPV to become more competitive.
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Browse the complete Report on: Algeria Autos Report Q4 2010
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In common with most countries, Algeria experienced a poor year for car sales in 2009 (and by extension, imports) owing to the effects of the global economic downturn, although the decline in sales was not so catastrophic as that seen in some other markets. Imports of new vehicles stood at 231,760 units, according to Association des Concessionnaires Automobiles d’Algerie. This represented a fall of 6% year-on-year (y-o-y).

We expect a recovery in vehicle sales and imports in 2010. We forecast a rise in new vehicle sales to 263,311 vehicles, a record for the country and a rise of 14% y-o-y. This partly reflects the bounce-back from a relatively low base in 2010, predicated on reasonably strong real GDP growth (of 3%) and a moderate expansion of household expenditure. The differential between the expected rise in vehicle sales and the rise in GDP growth in percentage terms in 2010 is accounted for by the extreme demand sensitivity of vehicle sales and the low sales base created by the 2008 figure. In the first six months of 2010, a total of 115,008 new vehicles were sold in Algeria. We would expect a continued recovery in the second half of the year, such that H210 will see a total of just over 148,000 new vehicle sales. Over the long term, we expect reasonably strong annual growth of vehicle imports and sales. We forecast that the annual volume of new vehicle sales will reach just over 286,000 in 2012 and nearly 315,000 in 2015.

Renault is the market leader in the country by a comfortable margin. The French firm, operating under its local sales and distribution subsidiary Renault Algérie, sold a total of 37,306 new vehicles in Algeria in the first half of 2010, inclusive of 26,161 vehicles under its main banner, and 11,145 vehicles belonging to the Dacia brand. This amounts to a combined market share of 32.4% of new vehicle sales in Algeria in the first half of the calendar year. There is a considerable gap between Renault Algérie and the number two auto company operating in Algeria, Hyundai Motor. The Japanese firm sold 14,299 vehicles through Rebrab gpe (its local distribution set-up) in H110, giving it a market share of 12.4% (up slightly from a low of 10.6% for calendar 2009 as a whole). In third place - but only just - is Toyota Algérie, which sold 10,953 vehicles in H110 (inclusive of Daihatsu models), for a market share of 9.5% (down from a share of 10.5% in calendar 2009 as a whole, and 12.5% in 2008 as a whole). Peugeot is the fourth biggest selling brand, with sales of 10,912 in the first half of 2010, giving it a market share of 9.5%. Chevrolet is in fifth place, with sales in H110 of 10,870 units, which also works out as a market share of 9.5%. This quarter, we introduce a SWOT analysis for both Renault Algérie and Toyota Algérie.
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Original Source : – Algeria Auto Market
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