Browse the complete Report on:  Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: Despite government initiatives to increase investments, many Indonesian agricultural sectors underperform compared to both global and regional peers. Much of the inefficiency comes from the poor infrastructure, which will remain a challenge given the geographic nature of the country. We expect production across all sectors to increase over the forecast period due to increased domestic demand, government goals of self-sufficiency and export opportunities. However, disease concerns in the livestock sector and the greater scarcity of arable land remain salient risks.
Key Views

• Rice production growth to 2013/14: 11.6%. Government initiatives to replace ageing trees will see an increase in yields as well as planted area, allowing Indonesia to compete with Ghana, the world's second largest producer.
• Poultry consumption growth to 2014: 36.1%. This will come from a combination of increased domestic demand and government initiatives aimed at not only making the country selfsufficient, but also allowing it to become a major regional exporter.
• Sugar production growth to 2013/14: 39.3%. This expansion will come mainly through improved yields and sucrose content in cane. Despite the production improvement, the country will likely remain, along with India and the EU, one of the world's largest sugar importers.
• 2010 Real GDP Growth: 5.2% (up from 4.5 in 2009; predicted to average 5.7% from now until 2014).
• Consumer Price Inflation: 5% y-o-y in June 2010 (down from 3.6% y-o-y in June 2009).
• Key Industry Developments
• A further expansion of agriculture in Indonesia's outer islands is necessary if the country is to meet the food needs of its massive population, we expect this project to face many difficulties before it becomes a reality. This will be difficult given the pervasive infrastructure deficiencies in most of the country outside of Java. There will be considerable opposition from environmental groups both at home and abroad, as has already happened with the palm oil sector.
• We have revised down our forecast for sugar production in 2009/10 as dry weather followed by unusually heavy rains in Java are expected to delay the start of the cane harvest and see sugar content fall. We now forecast Indonesia to produce 2.77mn tonnes of sugar, down from a previous forecast of 2.92mn tonnes. This leaves the country a long way from meeting domestic demand, which we forecast to rise to 4.48mn tonnes in 2009/10. The government is implementing trials of tropical sugar beet production as part of its plan to reach self-sufficiency in sugar, although self-sufficiency will still be many years away.
• In an attempt to bolster the domestic grinding industry, the government placed a tax on cocoa bean exports in April 2010. Groups representing cocoa growers believe the new tariff will see a large loss of income for farmers. Although we expect high cocoa prices and government investment to help increase output over the forecast period, the continuation of the tax could see production growth ultimately stall. This is due to diminished incentives to expand domestic output given that domestic processing is inefficient and costly, and the export tax reduces profit margins.

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Original Source : –Agribusiness Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  India Agribusness Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: With the monsoon forecast to be only slightly below average, we expect crop production in 2010/11 to increase significantly owing to higher yields. Over the five-year forecast period, production across all agricultural subsectors will be positive, spurred by increased demand, foreign direct investment. Dairy and livestock will also benefit from improved technology adoption, which could set a strong example and produce a model for other subsectors to follow.

• Sugar production growth to 2013/14: 105%. Growth will be dictated by increasing domestic per capita consumption. However, this growth is also a function of base effects.
• Beef and poultry production will both increase by 29% and 41% respectively to 2013/14, due to increased demand from higher incomes and prevalence of western style restaurants.
• Because of marketing schemes targeted at the general population and generally greater demand for high-value dairy products such as yoghurt and cottage cheese, we forecast butter and milk production to grow by 38% and 26% respectively to 2013/14.
• 2010 Real GDP Growth: 7.8% (down slightly from 7.45% in 2009, predicted to average 8% from now until 2014).
• Consumer Price Inflation: %16.6 year-on-year (y-o-y) in May 2010 (up from 5.7% y-o-y in May 2009).

With the monsoon registering only slightly below average up to July 7, the sectors deeply affected by the previous year's drought (rice, sugar, grains) should increase production considerably y-o-y in 2009/10. However, we note that these are generally due to base effects and when harvest yields are compared internationally, India's agricultural production still has room to improve.
Indian agriculture will benefit greatly from increased multinational investment and technological improvements in various sectors. In dairy, large firms Reliance, DCM, Bharti and ITC have all entered the market, while in coffee, Segafredo Zanetti, News Café and Starbucks are finally gaining a foothold in a market experiencing moderate but consistent growth. The dairy and livestock sectors should get a significant boost in the form of information holding micro-chips and other technological advances.
Strong economic growth will lead to increased incomes among India's vast population. This, combined with a youthful population and increasing urbanisation, means Indian demand for sugar and meat products. Producers should certainly benefit from this, but the government will also be keeping a keen eye on production levels in order to ensure what they consider manageable prices in order to control food price inflation.


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Browse the complete Report on:  France Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: The dairy crisis continues to overshadow other issues in French agriculture, with recent falls in farmgate milk prices showing that the country's dairy farmers are not out of the woods yet. The High- Level Group (HLG) has released its recommendations, which include boosting the collective bargaining power of producers; work on labelling and transparency in the supply chain, and a possible futures market. Regardless, we expect consolidation in the industry and the lifting of EU quotas to bring production increases over our forecast period. But with some way to go before any of the HLG's proposals see the light of day, the dairy industry is unlikely to see an end to turmoil soon.


Key Views

• We are forecasting 2010 milk production to rise to 23.8mn tonnes (up 132,000 tonnes from our last report). Over our forecast period, we expect to see an increase in milk production of 2.5% over the 2009 level to reach 24.2mn tonnes in 2014.
• We have reduced our wheat forecast for 2009/10 following reports that high temperatures and water droughts in several key areas have damaged soft wheat yields. In 2008/09, wheat production stood at 38.3mn tonnes. We are now forecasting this to fall 1.4% year-on-year to 37.8mn tonnes in 2009/10.
• The tough economic situation means demand for poultry is growing more slowly than it might. This, as well as poor export performance, is weighing on production levels in 2010. We forecast production will fall to 1.66mn tonnes in 2010. Over our forecast period, we expect a decline in output of 4.76%, to 1.59mn tonnes in 2014.

Industry Developments
The HLG has made seven recommendations to improve the crisis-stricken dairy industry. They include improving contractual relations between producers and processors; improving the collective bargaining power of producers; involving interbranch organisations in the dairy sector; improving transparency in the dairy supply chain; new market measures and a futures market; improving marketing standards and labelling; and increasing innovation and research in rural development.
The removal of EU dairy quotas at the rate of 1% per year may be provoking consolidation in the French dairy industry. In June, Sodiaal announced it had reached a preliminary agreement to take over rival Entremont Alliance to create what would be Europe's fourth-largest dairy group. Later the same month, two more French dairy companies, Glac and Eurial, announced their intent to merge.
France is leading the charge against a possible free trade agreement with Mercosur. French farmers groups fear that the mooted deal will result in a flood of cheap poultry and beef imports from South America, threatening their own profitability. The possibility of such a deal being implemented within our outlook window poses downside risk to our production forecasts and upside to consumption forecasts.


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Original Source : – France Agribusiness Marke

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Browse the complete Report on:  Turkey Retail Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by more than 19% by 2014, from TRY293.28bn (US$225.18bn) in 2010 to TRY349.77bn (US$268.56bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$736.9bn in 2010, with 2009’s decline of 4.7% expected to translate into growth of 4.9% in 2010 as the economy begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of 5.2% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from 73.2mn in 2010 to an estimated 76.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 86% to US$18,521 by the end of the forecast period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$6,965 in 2010 to US$12,925 by 2014.
Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 13.5% by the end of 2009. We forecast that this will start to fall in 2010, ending the forecast period at 8.0%. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
Using BMI Food & Drink service data we identify a food and drink retail market share in 2010 of 25.7%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.16bn in 2010 to US$2.11bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 82%. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 68% from US$13.25bn in 2010 to US$22.30bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by more than 52%, from US$7.33bn in 2010 to US$11.14bn by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Turkey’s predicted market share of 19.2% in 2010 is expected to fall slightly, to 18.6%, by 2014.


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Original Source : – Turkey Retail Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on:  Singapore Retail Report Q4 2010


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The Q410 BMI Singapore Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated SGD41.54bn (US$29.99bn) in 2010 to SGD47.11bn (US$35.42bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Singapore’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$190.5bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 5.1mn to 5.2mn over the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$37,820 in 2010 to US$45,741 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$15,656 in 2010 to US$20,240 by the end of the forecast period.
The Singapore Department of Statistics’ figures show that median monthly household income from work among all resident households increased by 13% from SGD4,380 (US$3,068) in 2007 to SGD4,950 (US$3,469) in 2008. The number of households in higher income brackets also increased, with the proportion of employed households earning at least SGD7,000 (US$4,900) per month increasing from 33% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.
Visitor arrivals to Singapore declined by 4.3% y-o-y in 2009 to 9.7mn, with the STB stating that its previous target of 17mn visitor arrivals and SGD30bn (US$21bn) in tourism receipts in 2015 will be a challenge. However, with the opening of the World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands resorts, the STB is targeting 11.5-12.5mn visitor arrivals and SGD17.5-18.5bn in tourism receipts for 2010. The year started well, with visitor arrivals in January 2010 up by 17.6% y-o-y to 908,000; and rising by 24.2% to 857,000 in February, the highest total ever recorded for the month.
BMI forecasts the over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector to be worth US$137mn in 2010 and that sales will increase by more than 19% to US$164mn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by 11%, from US$3.26bn in 2010 to US$3.62bn by the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Singapore’s market share of 1.1% in 2010 is forecast to fall to 0.8% by 2014.


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Original Source : – Singapore Retail Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2010
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The Q410 BMI Malaysia Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from MYR153.76bn (US$43.65bn) in 2010 to MYR251.63bn (US$71.44bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Malaysia’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$219.42bn in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual GDP growth of 4.8% over the forecast period through to 2014. With the population expected to increase to 29.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$7,978 in 2010 to US$9,720 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,329 in 2010 to US$5,702 by the end of the forecast period.
Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, urban households on average spent 1.8-times more than rural households between 2004 and 2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales.
BMI forecasts vehicle sales of US$6.04bn in 2010, rising to US$9.36bn by the end of the forecast period (+55.0%). Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to be US$404mn in 2010 and to increase to US$557mn by the end of the forecast period (+38.0%). Consumer electronic sales are predicted to rise from US$8.58bn in 2010 to US$11.06bn by the end of the forecast period (+21.6%). Although Malaysia is increasingly one of emerging Asia’s more established mass grocery retail (MGR) markets, BMI continues to predict a bright medium-term future for the sector, with industry sales forecast to increase by 50% to reach MYR20.7bn (US$7.02bn) in 2014.
Tourism is an important contributor to the retail sector. In 2007, the year of the 50th anniversary of Malaysia’s independence, the country received 20.9mn visitors, helped by the Visit Malaysia campaign. Tourism receipts amounted to MYR46.07bn (US$13.82bn).
Tourist arrivals increased by 5.5% to 22.05mn in 2008, surpassing the 21.5mn target set by the government under the Ninth Malaysia Plan for 2006-2010. Shopping is the second-highest contributor to the country’s tourism receipts, and shopping revenue is estimated to have increased by 30% to MYR16bn (US$4.6bn) in 2008.
Tourist arrivals from January to August 2009 totalled 15.38mn, up 4.4% from 14.73mn in the same period of 2008. Tourism Minister Ng Yen Yen has said that Malaysia aims to attract 24mn tourists and earn MYR54bn (US$16.93bn) in tourism receipts in 2010.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Malaysia’s forecast market share of 1.5% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 1.4% by 2014.
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Original Source : – Malaysia Retail Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Indonesia Retail Report Q4 2010

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The Q410 BMI Colombia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated COP178,818bn (US$90.92bn) in 2010 to COP223,937bn (US$113.86bn) by 2014. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population, the rise in disposable income and greater numbers of working women are key factors behind the forecast growth in Colombia’s retail sales. Colombia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$254.0bn in 2010, with 2009’s marginal growth of 0.4% expected to improve to 3.9% in 2010 as the economy begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 3.6% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 46.3mn in 2010 to an estimated 48.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 31.2% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$7,197. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from a predicted US$3,582 in 2010 to US$5,496 by 2014.
Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver for the growth in GDP, with improvements in the security outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. Although Colombia did not reach its target of 4mn tourist arrivals in 2009, due to factors such as the H1N1 virus and the global economic crisis, it still achieved 16% per cent growth in the number of foreign visitors last year, while the world average contracted by 4%.
In 2005, 64.5% of the Colombian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 39.2% in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial to retail sales. Over three-quarters of the population were classified by the UN as urban (77.4%). In 2010, the urban population is forecast to reach almost 80%, with 38.5% in the 20-44 age band and 67.3% of the population expected to be active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia’s status as the third most populous country in Latin America. Retail sub-sectors that are likely to see strong growth over the period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, which BMI forecasts to grow from US$0.48bn in 2010 to US$0.80bn by 2014, a rise of 67.9%. Sales of consumer electronic products are estimated at US$3.46bn in 2010, with BMI forecasting a 43.9% rise to US$4.98bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010, with those two countries plus Venezuela forecast to account for 84.6% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. For Colombia, its predicted 2010 market share of 7.8% is expected to fall to 6.3% by 2014.


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Original Source : – Indonesia Retail Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Hong Kong Retail Report Q4 2010

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The Q410 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow from a forecast HKD286.71bn (US$36.93bn) in 2010 to HKD340.33bn (US$43.83bn) by 2014. Rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.
Hong Kong’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$221.3bn in 2010. We predict average annual GDP growth of 3.3% through to 2014. With the population increasing from 7.0mn to 7.3mn over this period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise from US$31,131 in 2010 to US$37,060 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$18,488 in 2010 to US$22,078 by 2014. Tourist spending contributes significantly to Hong Kong retail sales, and the Hong Kong Tourist Board (HKTB) has provisionally reported that total tourism arrivals for 2009 stood at 29.59mn, an increase of 0.3% on 2008. Based on data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), we forecast tourism expenditure to reach US$25.05bn in 2010 – up from an estimated US$20.87bn in 2009 – and to hit US$33.40bn by 2014.
Retail sub-sectors that are forecast to achieve healthy sales growth throughout the forecast period include automotives, which are predicted to increase by nearly 27%, from US$1.28bn in 2010 to US$1.62bn by 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals sales are forecast to rise by more than 20%, from US$0.24bn in 2010 to US$0.30bn by 2014. Consumer electronics sales are predicted to grow from US$3.82bn in 2010 to US$4.53bn, a rise of nearly 18%, by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. For Hong Kong, its forecast market share of 1.4% in 2010 is expected to ease to 1.0% by 2014.


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Original Source : –Retail  Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  China Retail Report Q4 2010


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The Q410 BMI China Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by 71% in local currency terms by the end of the forecast period, growing from CNY14.40trn (US$2.11trn) in 2010 to a projected CNY24.63trn (US$3.61trn) by 2014. Retail sales in China doubled between 2003 and 2008, when they broke through the CNY10trn (US$1.6trn) barrier for the first time. In the Business Blue Book 2010 issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) it predicts that sales will reach CNY15trn (US$2.22trn) in 2010, slightly higher than BMI’s projection.
Strong underlying economic trends, population growth and the increasing wealth of individuals are key factors behind retail market expansion. Regulatory reform following China’s accession to the WTO in December 2001 has allowed foreign retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 14.5% in local currency terms.
China’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$5.36trn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 7.9% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population estimated to increase from 1.30bn in 2010 to 1.33bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by 51.8% to reach US$6,239. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,480 in 2010 to US$2,410 in 2014. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with high disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to socioeconomic forecasters Global Demographics, more than 30% of all urban households in China had an annual income above CNY40,000 (US$5,848) in 2007. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates that urban retail sales accounted for nearly 68% of total retail sales in 2009 down slightly on 2008. Retail sectors that are likely to achieve substantial growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with forecast sales of US$13.75bn in 2010 predicted to rise by over 36% by 2014 to US$18.73bn. Automotive sales, worth a forecast US$284.43bn in 2010, are predicted to grow by nearly 74% by 2014, reaching US$494.14bn. Sales of consumer electronic products are predicted to increase by more than 45%, from US$150.67bn in 2010 to US$218.95bn by 2014.
A sizeable multinational retail presence following the lifting of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in 2001 has ensured the early adoption of modern retail best practices in China. Organised retail – ie: Western-style chain outlets, department stores, supermarkets, etc – already account for an estimated 23% of the total retail market, far higher than the 5% in India.
Chinese retailers have been expanding into secondary and tertiary towns and cities. By December 2009, GOME Electrical Appliances Holding, China’s leading retailer of household appliances and consumer electronic products, had 260 outlets in 172 second-tier cities, accounting for more than a third of its stores and generating 24.26% of its total sales.
Partnerships between local players and multinationals are allowing for rapid development of the retail market. In November 2007, Beijing Hualian Group signed a joint venture agreement with British company Costa Coffee to open 300 Costa stores in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Northeast China and other regions in the next few years.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. China’s forecast 2010 market share of 77.0% is expected to rise to 77.9% by 2014.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Original Source : – China Retail Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Croatia Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Tourism Overview
Foreign tourism to Croatia has been poor in recent years, with growth in arrivals of 1% and -1% year-onyear (y-o-y) in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Data for January-April 2010 show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals was down by 2% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by nearly 12% y-o-y. Of the Croatia’s key European source markets, only Slovenia provided positive y-o-y growth in arrivals over the four-month period. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by about 6% compared with the corresponding period in 2009. What is particularly noticeable this year are the sharp movements in the monthly data for foreign tourism, with arrivals down by 24% y-o-y in January but rising by 23% y-o-y in March.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector recorded a weak performance in 2008 and 2009 in terms of the total number of tourist nights. In the first four months of 2010, tourist nights fell by 4.5% y-o-y, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 1.3% and 10.7% respectively. Domestic tourist nights also fell relatively sharply last year. In regards to the key source markets, although Slovenia showed buoyant growth of over 20% y-o-y in tourist nights over January-April, nights attributed to German and Austrian tourists were down by approximately 3% and 10% y-o-y respectively.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Our forecast for growth in foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 has been edged down marginally this quarter to 2% y-o-y, although growth in arrivals though is anticipated to pick up slightly in 2011. These forecasts are based on a mild economic recovery in major foreign source markets, with the eurozone emerging from recession in 2010 and growth improving to 1.6% in 2011. During the summer tourism season, we also expect appreciatory pressures on the Croatian kuna to pick up. That said, short-term appreciation will be modest. Our forecast exchange rate for the kuna against the euro for end of 2011 also shows slight appreciation compared with 2010. This is likely to act as a constraint on growth in foreign arrivals from the eurozone.
Air Passenger Traffic
Following a 12% y-o-y fall in international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers in 2009, traffic remained weak in Q110, with numbers down by 11% y-o-y. During the first five months of 2010 at Zagreb Airport – the main international airport in Croatia – passenger traffic was poor, falling by 7% y-oy, after declining by 6% in 2009, although the downturn has eased since the beginning of this year.
Croatia Airlines
Weaker tourism took its toll on the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines in 2009, with the airline recording a 6% annual fall in traffic to 1.75mn passengers. This followed relatively strong growth in the previous two years of 9% y-o-y each. The airline launched a direct, three times a week service between Zagreb and the Greek capital Athens in June 2010.
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Original Source : – Croatia Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on:  Argentina Insurance Report Q4 2010

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Writing in July 2010, we have been able to include the final figures for the 12 months to June 2009 (the financial year for the Argentine insurance sector). We have also based our forecasts for 2010 on the actual figures for the 10 months to the end of April 2010 that have been published by the regulator, Superintendencia de Seguros de la Nación (SSN). According to the regulator, total insurance premiums in the year up to June 2009 amounted to ARS27,611mn. This included non-life premiums of ARS21,974mn. Life and retirement savings premiums combined amounted to ARS5,637mn. By June 2014, we expect that the corresponding figures will be ARS57,297mn, ARS46,570mn and ARS10,727mn. Underpinning our forecasts is a drop in non-life penetration from 1.63% in the June 2009 year to 1.38% in the June 2014 year. We expect that life density will rise from US$38 per capita to US$55.
BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Argentina (IBER) is 51.4 out of 100. In absolute and local currency terms, Argentina’s non-life segment has almost trebled in size since the end of 2005. Meanwhile, the life segment has grown by less than one-third. Given Argentina’s history of financial instability and the hugely controversial nationalisation of the private pension funds in late 2008 it is perhaps not surprising that the perennially under-developed life segment has lagged behind. Nevertheless, life premiums grew by 25% in 2007 and a very respectable 15% in 2008, in peso terms.
However, growth of life insurance stopped in 2009. In January 2010 the latest figures from the SSN indicated that gross written premiums in the life segment over the 12 months to the end of November 2009 were ARS5,445mn. In terms of gross written premiums, it appears that the life segment shrank by around 15% in 2008 in local currency terms and by more in US dollar terms. Meanwhile, the non-life segment continues to grow apace. The SSN’s figures indicated that non-life premiums in the 12 months to the end of November 2009 were ARS23,965mn. In other words, it appears that non-life premiums in 2009 were about 30% higher than they had been in 2008. The SSN’s latest figures for market shares (in relation to the year to June 30 2009) highlight three aspects of Argentina’s insurance sector. First, the overall market remains extraordinarily fragmented. La Caja (the local subsidiary of Generali) is the largest player in terms of total premiums, with an overall share of about 8.5%. Three other groups – Sancor, MAPFRE and Federación Patronal – each have market shares of between 6% and 8%, while HSBC La Buenos Aires, La Segunda, La Meridional, Provincia Seguros, Zurich and San Cristóbal each have market shares of between 3% and 5%.


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Original Source : – Argentina Insurance Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on:  Malaysia Shipping Report Q4 2010
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There may be doubts over the strength of the recovery across Malaysia's main ports but things are pretty clear in Penang. Major expansion plans in Penang are set to be realised in 2010 as the port expands to cater for growing demand. The port managed to defy the downturn and we project that volumes there are on track for further growth over the mid term. Expansion at the port's North Butterworth Container Terminal (NBCT) is due to be completed by the end of 2010. The project will see the port's infrastructure expanded along with the facility's capacity. Six new ZPMC cranes were delivered to the port at the end of 2009 and these are due to commence operations, allowing the port to cater for greater numbers of boxes. Off the back of this, productivity at the port is due to be increased, with the terminal setting a target throughput of 25 crane moves per hour per crane. The terminal is also expanding its infrastructure with a project to increase NBCT's existing 900m wharf by a further 600m. The expansion project is part of the port's strategy to appeal to more container lines as a major port of call, not just in Malaysia but in Asia. The port is the country's third largest container facility after the port of Klang and the port of Tanjung Pelepas, handling 958,476 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2009. We predict that the port will break the 1mn TEU milestone in 2011 and that box volumes at the port will grow by an annual average of 3.7% over the mid term (2010-2014).
The Malaysian macro-economic environment is improving, to the benefit of the ports and shipping sector. What is perhaps not yet clear is whether the improvement will be vigorous, or merely satisfactory. On the 'vigorous' side of the equation we can point to some signs of a V-shaped economic recovery after the recession of 2009. After falling by 1.7% last year, we now predict that GDP will come back strongly with 4.9% growth in 2010, led by the wholesale and retail trade and a resumption of private sector investment. Looking forward across out five-year forecast horizon, we expect GDP to grow by a respectable annual average of 4.8%. On the 'satisfactory', or even 'disappointing' side of the equation, the government will have to do some fiscal tightening, cutting back its expenditure, and the threat of a 'double dip' global slowdown in 2011 seems to be suggesting exports will not lead growth as strongly as they have in the past. That is significant as it means shipping demand and port activity may be somewhat more muted. The current trade recovery is making itself felt on the docks at the Port of Klang (POK), Malaysia's largest terminal for general cargo. BMI is projecting a vigorous increase in volume there, up by 20.7% more than offsetting the 9.6% contraction during the slump last year. At the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (POTP), we see this year's volume gaining by 13.9%. Unlike POK, here there was no contraction last year. The Port of Klang is expected to see 21.2% container handling growth this year, reversing the 8.3% fall experienced in 2009. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas will see growth of 10.0%
In real terms, we expect Malaysia's total trade (imports + exports) to recover this year, following the sharp 11.3% fall in 2009. In fact, BMI is projecting a 10.5% growth rate, almost recovering all the ground that was lost in 2009. However, next year, in 2011, as we expect a 'double dip' global economic slowdown originated by both China and the US to come into play, Malaysian trade growth will slow to 2.6%. Looking forward across our five-year medium-term forecast, we expect annual average trade growth in real terms of 5.1%. Imports will lead the way with average growth of 6.1%, ahead of exports at a slower 4.3%.
We believe there are two major risks to our Malaysia shipping and ports forecast, both on the downside. The first is if a deeper-than-expected recession emerged in 2011, particularly in China, which would have a negative ripple-effect throughout Asia, reducing trade growth and shipping demand. The second risk is political and concerns any developments which could take the government's focus off the management of the economy and the gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit. Both the ruling coalition and the main opposition party have been suffering from internal disagreements, so a 'destabilisation' scenario could originate in various different ways.
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Original Source : – Malaysia Shipping Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Russia Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: The worst drought for 130 years poses a serious threat to Russian production this year. An estimated one-fifth of grain plantings have been ruined, causing knock-on effects to the dairy and livestock industries in terms of feed supply. The government has pledged to release 3mn tonnes of intervention grain in a bid to ease the crisis, but not in time to prevent some early slaughter of livestock and productivity losses incurred by dairy producers. This quarter we have consequently reduced our forecasts for production of most commodities this year.
We are forecasting a significant decline in wheat production for the 2010/11 season. Output is expected to fall 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 55.6mn tonnes. Corn production in 2009/10 is forecast to fall to 4.04mn tonnes, down 38.8% from 2008/09's bumper crop of 6.60mn tonnes. Barley production for 2010/11 is expected to fall 11.8% to 15.1mn tonnes.  Milk productivity is also likely to have taken a hit, as farmers use cheaper feed in the face of rising costs. We are now forecasting 2010 production at 32.0mn tonnes, down 1.07mn tonnes on last quarter's forecast and down 1.5% y-o-y.
Release of intervention grain has reportedly come too late to prevent some early slaughter of livestock to mitigate high feed prices. We are forecasting poultry production in 2010 to reach 1.93mn tonnes, growing 8.7% y-o-y but down 193,000 tonnes on our Q310 report. Pork production is expected to show modest growth of 1.6% y-o-y, with production reaching 2.24mn tonnes.
The US poultry dispute is at an end. Imports of US chicken have resumed after Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev brokered an agreement in Washington during trade talks in advance of the Toronto G20 meeting. US producers have agreed to cease use of the chlorinated washes that the Russians have taken exception to. Nevertheless, the recent Russian ban on pork imports from two major US plants shows such manoeuvres will remain a fixture of Russian trade policy through our forecast period.
Logistics remain a challenge for the Russian goal of becoming the world's top wheat exporter. Much of the unused agricultural land which will be key to the production required to meet this goal is far from targeted export markets. Vast amounts of investment will be needed if this land is to be brought into use.
A dispute between Russian milk producers and processors over the minimum milk price is at an end. Of processors, 65% of cheesemakers, 40% of dry milk producers and 50% of butter producers signed an agreement allowing a minimum milk price of RUB11/kg. Nevertheless, soaring feed prices due to the drought mean this lower bound is unlikely to be tested this year.

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Original Source : – Russia Agribusiness  Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: The EU green light on Turkish poultry imports and, more recently, a successful Russian presidential visit that resulted in Turkish exporters getting better access to the Russian market show the world is keen to buy Turkey's agricultural produce. Nevertheless, many of the country's agricultural industries remain hampered by government policy. A ban on GM foods has pushed up the price of feed, making it more difficult for Turkish producers to take advantage of willing export markets. For the time being the country remains a powerful but flawed agricultural player.
Poultry production surprised on the upside in 2009, jumping 17.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 1.33mn tonnes. Growing demand from both the home and export markets were key drivers. With the economy set to record a solid recovery in 2010, we are now forecasting a y-o-y gain of 8.2% to reach 1.43mn tonnes in 2010.
We have revised up our wheat forecasts for the 2009/10 season following reports of abundant rains producing favourable levels of soil moisture throughout the country. Although area planted to winter wheat stayed the same, we are forecasting production to rise slightly, up 0.4% y-o-y to reach 20.7mn tonnes.
In 2008/09 corn revenue was not able to meet production costs. This, combined with a boost in government subsidies for cotton and soybean, will produce a fall in area planted to corn in 2009/10. We are forecasting production to fall 8.7% y-o-y to 3.77mn tonnes. 􀂃 The Sugar Board has reduced its quota for 2010/11. We now expect to see a slight fall in production to 2.06mn tonnes that year, a y-o-y drop of 2.53%.
The impact of the new Biosafety Law, which passed on March 18, is as yet unclear. Regulations will need to be put in place to implement the law, which is open to interpretation. According to a biotech regulation already in effect, imports of biotech corn and soy are banned. If the new Biosafety Law results in resumed imports of biotech feed, meat prices will fall again. We are monitoring the situation closely and will have a clearer idea of the impact of the law next quarter.
During a presidential visit in May, Russia and Turkey signed a number of protocols on agriculture, including two aimed at simplifying procedures for Turkish companies looking to export poultry and products to Russia. During the visit the Russian agriculture minister announced that the Turkish poultry import quota would be raised from 57,000 tonnes in 2010 to 150,000 tonnes in 2011 and stated that there were now no legal barriers to Turkish imports. Greater access to the Russian market, while not expected to be a major boon for Turkey, is representative of increased international interest (especially from China and the Middle East) in Turkish poultry and among factors pushing up local production over our forecast period.
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Original Source : – Turkey Agribusiness  Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: At the time of writing Thailand's political tensions had eased and the country's farmers had returned to their homelands in the north and north east. The El Niño Southern Oscillation weather pattern continued to frustrate conditions in the country's farmlands. The drier than normal conditions alongside the threat of floods in October should see sugar yields decline. The additional menace presented by plant hoppers will see damage done to crops of rice and cassava.
The local price for milled rice fell from THB19,000 per tonne in December 2009 to THB11,800/tonne in late April 2010. The government plans to sell nearly half of its rice stocks of more than 5mn tonnes, further fuelling fears of falling prices.
Despite Thailand being the world's second largest sugar exporter, the first half of 2010 saw fears grow of shortages on the domestic market. As retail prices for the sweetener rose in the provinces, the government said it plans to extend price controls enforced in greater Bangkok to the whole country. We believe the government's interference in the internal sugar market through quotas and price controls are the major cause of the shortages.
In the dairy sector, a combination of the recovering Thai economy and the expansion of the government's free school milk programme has seen a wave of new investments in processing capacity. The Dairy Farming Promotion Organisation (DPO), which sells Thai-Denmark branded dairy products, and Nongpho Dairy Co-operative both announced they would increase their processing facilities to meet the demand for milk from schools.
Meanwhile, in January French dairy giant Danone said it was considering using Thailand as a production base for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) market following the implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. The company has already shown its confidence in the potential of the Thai market by investing THB572mn in a processing plant in Ayutthaya that opened at the start of 2010.
In the first quarter of 2010, a number of coffee shop chains announced ambitious expansion plans in both Thailand and neighbouring countries. The investments will help boost consumption of coffee in Thailand which still lags behind other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea. Telecommunications conglomerate and Charoen Pokphand Group subsidiary True Corp announced it would open branches of its True Coffee fascias in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in 2010 and plans are also underway for direct investment in China.
In late June, the managing director of Golden Donuts (Thailand), the Thai franchisee and operator of US-based Dunkin' Donut chain, announced the opening of the first Dunkin' Coffee outlet in Thailand. Plans called for the opening of over 130 such outlets in Thailand over the proceeding month, with hopes of increasing the coffee proportion of their total sales from 10% to 30% in the next five years.


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Original Source : –Thailand Agribusines Market
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