Showing posts with label Telecommunications. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Telecommunications. Show all posts

ReportsandReports – Kenya Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 update of the Kenya Telecommunications report contains analysis of the country’s mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors using latest market data released by the telecoms regulator, the CCK, and service providers. Our forecasts for the next five years to 2014 remain unchanged this quarter, as latest statistics largely confirm our expectations for the start of the year.
The 3G market in Kenya is set to become more active with the allocation of licences to Bharti Airtel’s Zain Kenya and Telkom’s Orange. After an extended battle over the price of the 3G licence, Zain Kenya, along with fellow alternative operators Telkom Kenya and Essar, successfully lobbied for a cut in 3G spectrum prices from the US$25mn Safaricom paid in 2007 to just US$10mn. Telkom Kenya is reported to be trialling a 3G service on a pilot basis at a number of sites in Nairobi. Although it is yet to apply for a licence, the director-general of the telecoms regulator expects it to do so soon, a move he believes will increase the penetration of data services through more competitive pricing. Furthermore, the Kenyan government is reported to have extended a shareholder loan to the operator that will help pay for the 3G licence fee.
Meanwhile, mobile services, in the form of Safaricom’s 3G mobile dongles, have become a massive part of the broadband landscape, overtaking fixed broadband connections. BMI has made the decision, across all of our reports, to include the 3G forecasts into the broadband forecast. Of course they are also kept separate as a mobile service that is important to mobile operators, but as they also compete directly with other broadband providers, we feel it is important to include these expected connections here as well. In August 2010, the CCK revised down mobile interconnection fees from KES4.42 (US$0.06) per minute to KES2.21 (US$0.03). The move is aimed at encouraging telecoms operators to lower call tariffs. The CCK aims gradually to reduce the fees to KES0.99 (US$0.013) by 2013. Zain has reacted fastest to the cut in interconnection rates by slashing call rates and SMS costs b y up to 50% and 80% respectively. In June 2010, the CCK initiated the process of mandatory registration of SIM cards and subscribers' details. Kenyan President Kibaki issued a directive in 2009 necessitating SIM registration. The registration of SIM cards will help the government in reducing mobile phone-aided crimes and enhancing national security. Although subscribers were directed to get their details registered by the end of July 2010, failing which their services will be disconnected, no update to this effect was available at the time of writing.
The CCK has announced that the country will introduce mobile number portability (MNP) by December 2010, which will enable subscribers to change their service provider without losing their mobile number. Dutch company PortingXS was awarded a contract by CCK to supply, install, commission and manage MNP services in order to boost competition in the mobile market.
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ReportsandReports – Mexico Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s latest update on Mexico’s telecommunications market contains revised forecast figures for the country’s fixed-line telephony, broadband subscriber and mobile customer markets. Our new forecast revisions are partly based on new data published by Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel). Meanwhile, our forecasts incorporate H110 data which, at the time of writing, had been published by the majority of Mexico’s telecoms operators.
Since our last update, mobile subscriber data has been published for the first six months of 2010 by all of Mexico’s network operators, with the exception of Iusacell. Based on the available data, we calculate that the market grew by 3.9% in the first six months of the year, reflecting the addition of 3.22mn new customers. Growth rates for the first two quarters of 2010 were higher than in the same quarters in 2009. BMI now predicts growth of 8% for 2010 as a whole. Furthermore we now forecast a total market of around 105mn subscribers by the end of 2014, reflecting a penetration rate of over 94%.
Key developments in the mobile sector include the July news that a joint venture between Mexican media conglomerate Grupo Televisa and mobile operator Nextel Mexico, which is owned by NII Holdings, had emerged as the sole bidder for a nationwide concession in the sale of spectrum in the 1700MHz band. The Televisa/NII joint venture bid for 30MHz in each of the country’s nine mobile operating regions. Also in July, it was revealed that Spain’s Telefónica had emerged as the highest bidder in an auction for spectrum in the 1900MHz band. The second and third-highest bids were submitted by mobile operator Iusacell and the Televisa/NII joint venture. All three operators were awarded blocks of 10MHz spectrum. BMI’s new forecast for Mexico’s fixed-line market envisages a pattern of slow decline. By the end of our forecast period, we now predict that penetration will fall to just 16.6%. Meanwhile, our new broadband subscriber forecast anticipates growth of almost 24% in 2010 as a whole. Our new forecast is based on subscriber data published by the leading broadband service providers, including fixed-line incumbent Telmex. This data suggests that the number of broadband subscribers grew by 12.2% in H1 2010. Key developments of note in the wireline sector include the news that a consortium made up of Grupo Televisa, Mexican cableco Megacable and Spain’s Telefónica had been awarded the licence allowing access to two strands of dark fibre owned by state power company Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). Under the terms of the licence, all three companies will be able to transport customer traffic over the fibre strands; the licence will also allow them to offer routing services to other operators.
This quarter sees the introduction of new terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. Mexico remains in fourth position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Latin America. Mexico scores above average in all four categories.
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ReportsandReports – China Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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In BMI’s latest China Telecommunications Report, we have updated forecasts for the fixed-line, internet and mobile sectors, following the publication of data for June 2010. Furthermore, we have also provided the latest data for regional mobile and fixed-line markets, and on a provincial level, as published by the Ministry of Industry and Information (MIIT) for June 2010.
There were a total of 785.524mn mobile subscribers as of June 2010, according to figures provided by the country’s three telecoms operators, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom. Although MIIT provided a higher figure of 805.35mn subscribers, we believe that this relates to a difference in definitions and potential includes some minor operators. That said, mobile subscriber growth continued to be robust, and during the first half of 2010, there were 59.5mn net additions, which was higher than the 54.2mn net additions reported by the operators in the first half of the previous year.
Such robust growth, despite penetration rates in excess of 60%, relates to strong investment in network upgrades and expansions by operators. With urban markets reporting mature mobile markets, operators are entering the next phase of growth, largely found in rural areas. To this effect, it was announced in May 2010, that Nokia was launching its Ovi Life Tools, which BMI believes operators will tap into to generate growth in rural subscriber numbers. Designed for emerging markets, Ovi Life Tools offers a wide range of information services aimed at improving access to basic communications, information and personal improvement services.
On the other hand, operators are keen to boost 3G subscriber figures. China Telecom announced that it had begun selling a locally produced tablet computer, the LifePad, in an attempt to stimulate extra demand for its 3G mobile services. The device, which includes a number of pre-installed applications such as email, ebook reader, stock trading and navigation, is similar in functionality to the Apple iPad, which China Telecom is also considering as an incentive for prospective 3G customers. However, operators are realising that such devices can only help grow 3G subscriber bases if they are affordable. China Unicom announced, in May 2010, that it had decided to increase subsidies for Apple's iPhone in a bid to increase sales. The operator said that it will invest up to CNY5bn (US$735mn) in subsidies in 2010. Demand for the iPhone has been slow in the country, and a reduction in prices will help it attract new 3G subscribers.
While there was no change to China’s position in the overall Business Environment Ratings for Asia Pacific, in ninth place, improvements in its Industry Risk score could see it rise up the table. In a related matter, the Chinese State Council made calls for increased private investment in a number of governmentrun industries, including the telecoms sector. China's government has kept close control of the telecoms industry, often considered quite a sensitive sector for security reasons, but this has also limited potential growth for the country’s telecoms industry.


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ReportsandReports – Croatia Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 update to Croatia’s Telecommunications Report contains an analysis of new market data published by the telecoms regulator and service providers. This has provided new support for our expectations for the mobile and internet sectors and led to a revision of our forecast for the fixed-line sector. It also contains an update on the performance of mobile broadband, which was introduced into our overall broadband analysis and forecasts in Q3. We have also analysed the effects of the 6% additional tax on mobile services introduced by the government to aid the country’s budget.
In the mobile sector, T-Mobile, owned by Deutsche Telekom, continues to face intense competition from Telekom Austria-owned Vipnet, which further eroded its market share in H110. At the end of Q210, T-Mobile’s market share was 45.9%, down from 46.2% the previous quarter and less than three percentage points ahead of Vipnet’s. The market leader reported a subscriber net loss for the third consecutive quarter in Q210, shedding 19,000. Its total net loss for the first half of the year now stands at 80,000. By the end of Q210, there were a total of 6.06mn subscribers, according to BMI estimates, which represented a small increase of 4,000 in the quarter.
Despite this, Croatia’s economy is expected to see a mild recovery in 2010. BMI’s Country Risk team predicts growth of 0.5% in the year, compared to the 5.7% decline experienced in 2009, which should boost the telecoms industry’s confidence. However, we remain concerned about the lingering weakness in the labour market, which will prevent any marked improvement in consumer spending. The sector is also expected to undergo a further hurdle with the implementation of prepaid SIM registration. While this is expected to heavily impact operators given their dependence on the prepaid market, we suspect that much of the mobile sector is already occupied by multiple or inactive SIMs, and therefore registration would allow for a clearer understanding of the market.
We included mobile broadband figures in our broadband forecast section for the first time in Q310. However, subscription figures released by the regulator at the end of 2009 were below expectations, indicating a slower than anticipated uptake of the service. It is, however, it is not unlikely that the recession in 2009 contributed to the slow growth of more advanced services in the market. Meanwhile, the need by the government to raise funds for the budget may also be part of the reason why local reports state that it is looking to offload its 3.5% stake in T-HT. While it has not revealed how it would do this, the most likely option appears to be a sale on the Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE).

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ReportsandReports – Bangladesh Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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This quarter sees the provision of mobile subscriber figures for the period ended March 2010 and for fixed-line ended May 2010. For both mobile and fixed-line, the publication of new data has led to a revision in their respective forecasts, while internet and broadband forecasts remain unaltered. There were a total of 57.514mn mobile subscribers in the first quarter, following 2.497mn net additions, which was above that of Q109, in which there were 1.116mn net additions. Some of this robust growth may be attributed to continued price competition, but also to improved network coverage, through either operators' individual network roll-outs or network sharing agreements, which have become increasingly commonplace in the industry. However, for the quarter ended June 2010, reliance on data published by the Bangladesh Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (BTRC) remains untrustworthy as it has, in the past, significantly underestimated the numbers of subscribers using Robi (owned by Axiata) services. For this reason, we have based our current forecasts on Q110 data.
During 2010, BMI estimates that the number of subscribers will reach 67.136mn, following year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 22.03%. This is not all that dissimilar to growth experienced in both 2009 and 2008, at 21.8% and 28.49%, respectively. However, it does mark a significant decline from the 61.86% y-o-y increase experienced during 2007. The slowing rate of growth relates to a maturing market with penetration rates set to reach 46% by the end of 2010. We do believe that future growth will remain more or less steady, so that by the end of our forecast period in 2014, penetration rates will have reached 102.6%.
As for the fixed-line market, statistics published by the BTRC reveal that the number of fixed-line subscribers declined by over 700,000, from 1.75mn in March 2010 to 1.03mn at the end of May. The reduction has been attributed to the Bangladeshi government's efforts to shut down unlicensed activities at five fixed-line operators in the country. The government had alleged that RanksTel, Dhaka Phone, People's Tel, WorldTel and National Telecom were illegally terminating calls through VoIP.
Such a dent has meant that there now just eight operators in the fixed-line market. Of these, most have not seen changes to their fixed-line subscriber bases for some time; a prime example being incumbent operator BTCL, which has retained the same number of fixed-lines for a number of years. This has led BMI to significantly revise downwards its fixed-line subscriber forecast, which we believe will reach 1.013mn fixed-lines in 2010, representing a penetration rate of 0.69% We expect this rate to remain flat over the remainder of our forecast at 0.77%.

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ReportsandReports – Bahrain Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s latest Bahrain Telecommunications Report includes mobile subscriber figures of third-ranked VIVA for the first time. The company is owned by Saudi Telecommunications Company (STC), and launched services in February 2010. The operator had an estimated 150,000 subscribers at the end of March 2010, significantly boosting overall subscriber figures in the mobile market, to reach 1.636mn subscribers.
Until the launch of VIVA, Bahrain’s mobile market had been suffering from slow growth as a result of high penetration rates, a fall in the population, and the deactivation of inactive SIM cards. Over 2009, the number of subscribers had risen by just 4.7%, representing a significant decline from the previous year, coming in at a y-o-y growth of 30.3%. That said, we still expect a number of deactivations to take place in coming years with penetration rates at over 160%, and therefore still housing a number of inactive SIMS.
BMI has revised its mobile forecasts this quarter, and we believe that by the end of 2010, the market will have expanded by 11.2% y-o-y, aided by VIVA, to end with a total subscriber base of 1.692mn. Over the next four years, we forecast an average annual growth rate of 1.8%, to reach 1.818mn, representing a penetration rate of 177.3%.
There were no changes in fixed-line or internet forecasts with no new data published by the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA). However, it was announced in July 2010, that the Bahraini government has decided to build a national broadband network (NBN). The Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) will provide excess capacity on its fibre-optic network at fair and reasonable prices on an open access basis. The government selected Bahrain Internet Exchange (BIX) to monitor operational aspects of the NBN to develop it in accordance with the National Economic Strategy 2009-2014. Not only will this prove to aid broadband growth, but similarly, efforts in the WiMAX sector should also help. In June 2010, WiMAX broadband operator Mena Telecom selected US telecoms handset and equipment vendor Motorola, to expand its WiMAX network capacity and coverage in the country, reports Ameinfo.com. The operator intends to make its network capable of handling 100,000 subscribers simultaneously. The operator registered about 45,000 broadband subscribers within 18 months of its launch, and intends to enhance its network for the expected subscriber base increase.

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ReportsandReports – Oman Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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At the time of writing the Q410 Oman Telecommunications Report, no new data for Q210 had been released by either the Omani regulator or the country’s operators. New data on the fixed-line market led us to revise our forecasts in the last update, and BMI has not seen a reason to change these. We now foresee a faster-than-expected decline in fixed-line usage, even after the entry of Nawras’ voice and internet offering, while the initial effects of a new effort to disconnect inactive mobile users has seen BMI lower its 2009 baseline for mobile subscriber forecasts. Similarly, we have downplayed our previous forecasts for broadband services, predicated on the slacker growth reported early in 2010. The mobile market supported 4.201mn mobile subscribers at the end of March 2010; this represented a yo- y increase of 25.2%. There was a clear boost in subscriber numbers in Q409 and Q110 that was driven by organic customer additions at Omantel and by sales recorded by the country’s MVNOs. Unlike many other regional markets, the uncertain economic climate did not appear to have had a significant impact on
Omani mobile customer growth in 2009, and the recovery being seen in 2010 will only serve to improve matters, particularly with regards to 3G take-up. The presence of a large number of inactive SIMs, together with a strong multiple SIM ownership trend, enforces our belief that the new inactive customer disconnection policy will lead to noticeable subscriber number reductions in the months ahead. BMI’s revised broadband subscriber forecast for Oman cautiously predicts that the sector will grow by more than 27% in 2010. This is slightly stronger growth than experienced in 2009, but remains well below the growth seen in 2008. Slower growth in 2009 likely reflected the weaker economic climate that prevailed during this time. In 2010, we expect the broadband market to benefit from the launch of WiMAX-based services by Nawras. Omantel has plans to continue investing in the expansion and modernisation of its own broadband infrastructure and has even begun deploying FTTH in selected new residential developments.
One particularly significant development has occurred since BMI’s last report: the launch of Nawras fixed-line and broadband services. Highly important to keep an eye on, it was not a full service launch, and no data yet exists as to how successful it has been in attracting new sign-ups. Services began on July 20 2010, and were offered over a WiMAX delivery network.


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ReportsandReports – Tanzania Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s latest update on Tanzania’s telecommunications market contains revised forecast figures for the country’s fixed-line telephony, internet user and broadband subscriber markets. This quarter also sees further revisions to our mobile subscriber growth forecast. Our new forecasts are based on new Q1 2010 data published by the country’s telecoms regulator, the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA). Our forecasts also incorporate data published by Tanzania’s leading mobile network operators; including Vodacom Tanzania, part of South Africa’s Vodacom Group, and Tigo, which is owned by Luxembourg’s Millicom Cellular International.
Our newly revised fixed-line forecast for Tanzania envisages long-term steady growth, fuelled largely by the expansion of fixed-wireless services. Meanwhile, our new broadband subscriber forecast is based on an estimate of around 11,000 broadband subscribers at the end of 2009; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of just 0.03%. We also estimate that Tanzania had 676,000 internet users at the end of 2009, equivalent to a penetration rate of 1.6%. Over the next few years, we predict that the number of internet users and broadband subscribers will increase at a relatively robust rate. In the medium term, growth in the broadband sector will continue to be driven by the corporate sector, as well as by small businesses such as internet cafes. The inauguration of international cable systems such as SEACOM and EASSy is seen as positive news for the broadband sector; the increased bandwidth that these cable systems will introduce should ultimately lead to lower prices for internet customers.
Our new mobile subscriber forecast for Tanzania is based on an estimate of 17.276mn mobile customers at the end of the year; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 40.6%. In addition to forecasting strong growth of 31% in 2010, we predict that Tanzania’s mobile market will expand at an annual average growth rate of 20% over the next five years. In addition to the introduction of compulsory SIM registration in July, recent developments of note within the mobile market include the news that Tanzania’s regulator, the TCRA, licensed five additional mobile phone companies in March 2010. The latest licence issuance brings the number of companies that are licensed to provide cellular services to 12. Although it is still far from certain that all five of these companies will proceed to offer commercial mobile services, the arrival of new competition could help to further reduce telecoms tariffs. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, it looked as though Tanzania’s government was preparing to lock horns with India’s Bharti Airtel over the latter’s recent acquisition of Zain Tanzania. Although Bharti is understood to be interested in acquiring the state’s 40% stake, it appears that the government plans to hold onto its interest.
This quarter sees the introduction of new terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. BMI undertook this change in order to standardise the Business Environment Ratings across different industry sectors. Tanzania sits in 5th position in our latest set of business ratings for sub-Saharan Africa.


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Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 of Business Monitor International now available at ReportsandReports

Dallas, TX: ReportsandReports announce it will carry Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Market Research Report in its Store.

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BMI’s Q310 update of the Kenya Telecommunications report has seen little change to our forecasts for the next five years to 2014, as the end of 2009 results, those that are published anyway, largely confirm our expectations for the start of the year, and our forecasts for Kenya growth in general have not changed. One thing that has changed is the broadband forecast. Mobile services, in the form of Safaricom’s 3G mobile dongles, have become a massive part of the broadband landscape, overtaking fixed broadband connections. BMI has made the decision, across all of our reports, to include the 3G forecasts into the broadband forecast. Of course they are also kept separate as a mobile service that is important to mobile operators, but as they also compete directly with other broadband providers, we feel it is important to include these expected connections here as well.

Kenya is doing unusually well as a 3G market, with an estimated 2.05mn user at the end of 2009. This should pull up even further as the other operators enter the market. There is some difficulty and controversy about this. Zain, Orange and YU are campaigning for the 3G licence fee to be lowered below the US$25mn that Safaricom originally paid. Safaricom of course argues that, if they do not pay as much, then it should get some money back. It could be said that the leading operator was laying a premium for first mover advantage, something it has certainly enjoyed. Zain said it is already rolling out its 3G infrastructure, confident that it will have its licence soon, though BMI is not convinced that it will not be hit with the full US$26mn bill.

Zain has in general not been doing well. It continues to lose market share and has very recently announced a new strategy, to focus more on the mass market, where it has previously concentrated more on high-end users.

Speaking of high-end user, the broadband suppliers of Kenya are continuing to expand their services. With the entrance of the Kenya Power and Lighting Company into the wholesale side of the broadband and data business, offering backhaul capacity along some key routes to other operators, the overall highspeed data capacity within Kenya is moving in the right direction. Still, services remain expensive, although all the new developments, better national connections and the advent of international highcapacity fibre cables are contributing small pieces to the puzzle that will eventually see internet access become a much more common experience in Kenya.

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Kenya Mobile SWOT
Kenya Fixed-Line and Broadband SWOT
Kenya Political SWOT
Kenya Economic SWOT
Kenya Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Sub-Saharan Africa
Kenya

Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile

Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line

Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet

Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile

Table: Kenya Mobile Market Q409

Table: Kenya Mobile Market Net Additions Q409
Network Strategies
Subscriber Mix And ARPU
Network Developments
3G
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook

Table: VAS Developments
Mobile Operator Data

Table: Total Market

Table: Safaricom

Table: Zain (formerly Celtel)
Fixed Line

Table: Kenya’s Fixed Network Connections

Table: Kenya’s Fixed Network Traffic (minutes)
Internet

Table: Kenya’s Internet Subscribers

Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Competition
Licensing
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players

Table: Key Players – Kenya Telecoms Sector

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Huawei: Wireless And Fibre Deployments Define Regional Growth While Huawei Expands Research And Training Commitments

Table: Huawei Financial Highlights

Table: Huawei – Recent Contract Wins and Other Developments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Table: Huawei – Recent Contract Wins And Other Developments In North Africa And The Middle East
Profiles
Safaricom
Telkom Kenya
Appendix:
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration
Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration
Internet

Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration
Country Snapshot: Kenya Demographic Data
Section 1: Population

able: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030

Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Table: Education, 2002-2005

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

Glossary Of Terms

Table: Glossary Of Terms

BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts

Telecoms Business Environment Ratings

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Table: Ratings Indicators

Sources

Browse complete Kenya Telecommunications Report Q3 2010 Report

Browse all IT & Telecommunication Market Research Reports

Browse all Business Monitor International Market Research Reports

Browse all Latest Report

Related Reports:

Greece Telecommunications Report Q3 2010

China Telecommunications Report Q3 2010

Kenya Tourism Report Q3 2010

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