Browse the complete Report on: Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010 |
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Colombia’s total healthcare expenditure is set to grow relatively strongly year-on-year (y-o-y) as the cost of healthcare provision escalates and an increasing number of drugs are demanded under the country’s Mandatory Health Plan (POS). A growing population and strong growth in total drug expenditure over the decade will ensure that overall healthcare spending is maintained at a steady 6% of GDP going forward. BMI expects spending on healthcare to increase from COP28,972bn (US$13.47bn) in 2009 to COP30,395bn (US$15.79bn) in 2010.
The newly-elected government, led by President Juan Manuel Santos, will consequently try to increase patients’ financial contributions as it attempts to ease its own burden. This will be fraught with difficulties, however, as the government has already stepped back from the introduction of greater, universal out-of-pocket payments by confining the measure to high-income groups.
Nonetheless, Santos’s hotly-contested victory in the June 2010 election justifies BMI’s view that the public sector’s share of total healthcare expenditure will fall significantly from 96.4% in 2009 to 68.7% by 2014. High on Santos’s agenda is a rate of economic growth to rival neighbours Brazil and Peru – the new administration hopes to achieve an ambitious 6% growth rate within the next two years. These growth targets, combined with Santos’s endorsement from the country’s business interests, will likely result in a number of swift moves to curb the deficit and cut spending. While the administration focuses on mining, energy and infrastructure to drive economic growth from an estimated 2.2% in 2010, public healthcare expenditure is likely to waver as the government eyes investment grade assessments from the ratings agencies.
In a continuing bid to reform healthcare in the country, Colombia's outgoing Minister of Social Protection Diego Palacio announced in May 2010 that in order to limit repercussions from parallel imports, drugmakers have offered to lower prices (by about 20-26%) for drugs that are not listed on the Mandatory Health Plan (POS). While generating an immediate cut in sales, BMI believes this move will be ultimately rewarding for pharmaceutical companies.
Demand will be partly stimulated by the existing Familias en Accion welfare programme. The programme has been ramped up by the potential addition of 1.5mn families, following an Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) decision in August 2010 to commit US$220mn to the programme’s expansion into urban areas. Since its creation in 2001, Familias en Accion has enrolled over 2mn low-income families. It aims to incentivise healthcare spending, checkups and school attendance among children by offering direct cash payments. By 2014, BMI calculates that spending on healthcare will have reached a value of COP37,325bn (US$24.88bn), equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.20% in local currency terms and 13.06% in US dollar terms. Pharmaceutical spending, meanwhile, is expected to reach COP4.52bn (US$6.78bn) in 2014, a growth of 15.08% in local currency terms.
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