Browse the complete Report onQatar Power Report Q3 2010
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In this report, BMI forecasts that Qatar will account for 2.22% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a modest theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the forecast period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces the market share of thermal generation slightly to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewable such as hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 21.3TWh, or 2.00% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.70% of thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2009, accounting for an estimated 81.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 18.8%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Qatar’s estimated 2009 market share of 2.72% is set to rise to 3.49% by 2014.
Qatar is still ranked first ahead of the UAE in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its market size and low level of energy import dependency, and in spite of its particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the potential to keep the UAE at bay for the foreseeable future.
BMI now forecasts that 2010 real GDP growth will average 8.2% a year in 2010-2014, with 2010 growth forecast at 15.2%. The population is expected to expand from 1.7mn to 1.9mn over the period. GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 21% during 2010-2014 and electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by 28%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 20TWh in 2009 to 33TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a small theoretical generation surplus – assuming 10.4% average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 127.2%, which is among the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 52.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 49.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 45.2% in 2010-2014 to 49.7%, representing 117.2% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 127.2% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.


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