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The new Saudi Arabia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 16.04% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a growing theoretical supply surplus if there is sufficient additional investment in capacity. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces the market share of thermal generation slightly to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewable such as hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Saudi Arabia’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 199TWh, or 18.67% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 19.46% of thermal generation. Oil was the dominant fuel for Saudi Arabia in 2009, accounting for an estimated 61.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 38.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Saudi Arabia’s estimated 2009 market share of 21.32% is set to ease to 20.85% by 2014.
Saudi Arabia now shares third place with Egypt in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, thanks largely to its considerable market size, low level of energy import dependency and particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Saudi Arabia is eight points behind the UAE, so lacks the potential to catch its Gulf rival.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.20% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 growth assumption being 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 25.9mn to 28.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 18% and 3% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 179TWh in 2009 to 208TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a growing generation surplus, assuming 5.1% average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 64.9%, which is near the middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 33.8% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 23.2% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 18.1% in 2010-2014 to 13.7%, representing 34.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 64.9% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.


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