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In this quarter’s update of BMI’s North Africa Telecommunications report, not only have we included the latest mobile subscriber and ARPU figures for the region’s leading mobile network operators, but we have also utilised the latest year-end 2009 data for fixed-line and internet/broadband usage figures from national regulatory authorities and reliable sources such as the World Bank/International Telecommunication Union (ITU). This has extended to certain historical data, which allows us to see that there was more progress in certain markets than previously considered. These new data have fed through to our forecasts – although the general growth trends continue to hold true – as well as to our Business Environment Ratings, which see downgrades for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as well as an improvement to our assessment for the mysterious market of Libya.
In Morocco and Tunisia, new mobile operators launched services in the first half of 2010. Moroccan fixed-line operator Wana has broken through to the mobile market after more than a decade successfully migrating telephone customers onto its wireless local loop platform. Moving those customers on to a fully mobile network should present few difficulties unless the existing operators decide to aggressively compete on the pricing front. Meanwhile, in Tunisia, France Télécom’s Orange will be competing with two well-established market players in a challenging environment. Orange’s offering will be 3G-centric and will be linked to its new fixed-line and broadband platform, so it does at least have some unique selling points on which it can trade. The real question will be whether Tunisians in general will be able to afford its services.
A new mobile player is expected in Libya in the near future. UAE-based Etisalat claims to have won the tender for the licence, even as the government continues to mull over the sale of stakes in the two existing operators. However, the government is proving slow to conclude negotiations with Etisalat, which has a good track record for finding growth opportunities in challenging markets. The problem may not be linked to the price bid for the licence, but rather to the Libyan government’s reluctance to allow an independent player into the market. With a new regulator in place and a new emphasis on ICT modernisation and expansion, BMI hopes to see some movement on this issue before the end of the year.
Algeria can also be described as a challenging market and mobile growth lost its impetus in Q110 after a sterling performance in Q409. We now see that the fourth quarter growth was abnormal and that more sluggish growth will characterise the market from this point on. We would expect to see operators become more proactive in marketing attractively priced services to revitalise the market, but the regulator has been reluctant to let this happen. Whether this can be ascribed to uncertainty regarding the continued participation of Orascom Telecom Holdings via its Djezzy unit, remains to be seen. Orascom would certainly like to exit the market if it can, but its partner – the government – is determined to both keep Orascom on board and penalise it for certain business transactions.


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