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The Q410 BMI Singapore Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated SGD41.54bn (US$29.99bn) in 2010 to SGD47.11bn (US$35.42bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Singapore’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$190.5bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 5.1mn to 5.2mn over the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$37,820 in 2010 to US$45,741 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$15,656 in 2010 to US$20,240 by the end of the forecast period.
The Singapore Department of Statistics’ figures show that median monthly household income from work among all resident households increased by 13% from SGD4,380 (US$3,068) in 2007 to SGD4,950 (US$3,469) in 2008. The number of households in higher income brackets also increased, with the proportion of employed households earning at least SGD7,000 (US$4,900) per month increasing from 33% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.
Visitor arrivals to Singapore declined by 4.3% y-o-y in 2009 to 9.7mn, with the STB stating that its previous target of 17mn visitor arrivals and SGD30bn (US$21bn) in tourism receipts in 2015 will be a challenge. However, with the opening of the World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands resorts, the STB is targeting 11.5-12.5mn visitor arrivals and SGD17.5-18.5bn in tourism receipts for 2010. The year started well, with visitor arrivals in January 2010 up by 17.6% y-o-y to 908,000; and rising by 24.2% to 857,000 in February, the highest total ever recorded for the month.
BMI forecasts the over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector to be worth US$137mn in 2010 and that sales will increase by more than 19% to US$164mn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by 11%, from US$3.26bn in 2010 to US$3.62bn by the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Singapore’s market share of 1.1% in 2010 is forecast to fall to 0.8% by 2014.


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