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BMI View: At the time of writing Thailand's political tensions had eased and the country's farmers had returned to their homelands in the north and north east. The El NiƱo Southern Oscillation weather pattern continued to frustrate conditions in the country's farmlands. The drier than normal conditions alongside the threat of floods in October should see sugar yields decline. The additional menace presented by plant hoppers will see damage done to crops of rice and cassava.
The local price for milled rice fell from THB19,000 per tonne in December 2009 to THB11,800/tonne in late April 2010. The government plans to sell nearly half of its rice stocks of more than 5mn tonnes, further fuelling fears of falling prices.
Despite Thailand being the world's second largest sugar exporter, the first half of 2010 saw fears grow of shortages on the domestic market. As retail prices for the sweetener rose in the provinces, the government said it plans to extend price controls enforced in greater Bangkok to the whole country. We believe the government's interference in the internal sugar market through quotas and price controls are the major cause of the shortages.
In the dairy sector, a combination of the recovering Thai economy and the expansion of the government's free school milk programme has seen a wave of new investments in processing capacity. The Dairy Farming Promotion Organisation (DPO), which sells Thai-Denmark branded dairy products, and Nongpho Dairy Co-operative both announced they would increase their processing facilities to meet the demand for milk from schools.
Meanwhile, in January French dairy giant Danone said it was considering using Thailand as a production base for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) market following the implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area. The company has already shown its confidence in the potential of the Thai market by investing THB572mn in a processing plant in Ayutthaya that opened at the start of 2010.
In the first quarter of 2010, a number of coffee shop chains announced ambitious expansion plans in both Thailand and neighbouring countries. The investments will help boost consumption of coffee in Thailand which still lags behind other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea. Telecommunications conglomerate and Charoen Pokphand Group subsidiary True Corp announced it would open branches of its True Coffee fascias in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in 2010 and plans are also underway for direct investment in China.
In late June, the managing director of Golden Donuts (Thailand), the Thai franchisee and operator of US-based Dunkin' Donut chain, announced the opening of the first Dunkin' Coffee outlet in Thailand. Plans called for the opening of over 130 such outlets in Thailand over the proceeding month, with hopes of increasing the coffee proportion of their total sales from 10% to 30% in the next five years.


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Original Source : –Thailand Agribusines Market
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