Browse the complete Report on - Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: Consistent economic growth have led to double-digit consumption growth forecasts across all agricultural sectors in Vietnam. However, the industry will continue to produce surpluses in coffee and rice - but few other commodities. Indeed, with a rising population and incomes, the country will remain a net importer of all livestock and dairy goods over the forecast period. Although the Vietnamese government is investing in several sectors to increase production, most of the industry, barring rice, will remain import-dependent and vulnerable to changes in global agricultural prices.
Key Trends:
- Sugar production growth to 2014: 26% to 1.26mn tonnes. Gains will be driven by stronger domestic demand and an increase in yields. Despite this, the country will likely remain a net sugar importer, as demand is expected to outstrip supply.
- Corn Consumption growth to 2013/14: 51% to 8.1mn tonnes. Animal feed will remain the primary use for corn to 2014 and beyond (feed accounted for 73% of total demand in 2009) and consequently our demand outlook for corn is very closely linked to our Vietnamese livestock forecasts.
- Pork production growth to 2014: 31% to 2.4mn tonnes. Rising incomes will stimulate domestic meat consumption growth and production will increase to keep pace. Furthermore, the livestock industry has become a key focus of government efforts to modernise food processing.
- 2010 Real GDP Growth: 6% (up from 5.3% in 2009; predicted to average 6.3% from 2010 until 2014).
- Consumer Price Inflation: 8% y-o-y in July 2010 (up from 3% y-o-y in July 2009). Industry Developments
Vietnam's coffee sector has grown significantly over the last 20 years, with yields doubling over that time, while the area planted has expanded from 42,000 hectares to over 509,000 over that time. Out to 2013/14, we expect production growth of 23% to 22.8mn bags, as the Vietnamese government is aiming to increase replanting of coffee trees. Work on replacing trees, many of which are more than 20 years old, will improve disease resistance and thus yields in the long term. Another growth driver will be export opportunities, given that Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee.
Despite virtually flat production growth in recent years and even a slight decrease in 2009/10, we believes Vietnam's rice sector will experience considerable growth over our forecast period, buoyed by improvements in infrastructure, higher yields and increased domestic demand. Compared with many of its agricultural sub-sectors, Vietnamese rice is actually very competitive relative to many of its regional peers and is well positioned to ensure the country remains a net exporter. Indeed, it will continue to be one of the world's few rice exporters, the second largest in 2009/10.
Vietnamese dairy consumption has expanded significantly in the last 15 years, driven by relatively large increases in domestic consumption and rising incomes, which have fostered increased milk consumption. To 2013/14, we are forecasting 40.9% growth in Vietnamese fluid milk production to 400,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment, in an effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency, will support the strong growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms begin to play a greater part in total milk production.
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
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BMI View: Consistent economic growth have led to double-digit consumption growth forecasts across all agricultural sectors in Vietnam. However, the industry will continue to produce surpluses in coffee and rice - but few other commodities. Indeed, with a rising population and incomes, the country will remain a net importer of all livestock and dairy goods over the forecast period. Although the Vietnamese government is investing in several sectors to increase production, most of the industry, barring rice, will remain import-dependent and vulnerable to changes in global agricultural prices.
Key Trends:
- Sugar production growth to 2014: 26% to 1.26mn tonnes. Gains will be driven by stronger domestic demand and an increase in yields. Despite this, the country will likely remain a net sugar importer, as demand is expected to outstrip supply.
- Corn Consumption growth to 2013/14: 51% to 8.1mn tonnes. Animal feed will remain the primary use for corn to 2014 and beyond (feed accounted for 73% of total demand in 2009) and consequently our demand outlook for corn is very closely linked to our Vietnamese livestock forecasts.
- Pork production growth to 2014: 31% to 2.4mn tonnes. Rising incomes will stimulate domestic meat consumption growth and production will increase to keep pace. Furthermore, the livestock industry has become a key focus of government efforts to modernise food processing.
- 2010 Real GDP Growth: 6% (up from 5.3% in 2009; predicted to average 6.3% from 2010 until 2014).
- Consumer Price Inflation: 8% y-o-y in July 2010 (up from 3% y-o-y in July 2009). Industry Developments
Vietnam's coffee sector has grown significantly over the last 20 years, with yields doubling over that time, while the area planted has expanded from 42,000 hectares to over 509,000 over that time. Out to 2013/14, we expect production growth of 23% to 22.8mn bags, as the Vietnamese government is aiming to increase replanting of coffee trees. Work on replacing trees, many of which are more than 20 years old, will improve disease resistance and thus yields in the long term. Another growth driver will be export opportunities, given that Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee.
Despite virtually flat production growth in recent years and even a slight decrease in 2009/10, we believes Vietnam's rice sector will experience considerable growth over our forecast period, buoyed by improvements in infrastructure, higher yields and increased domestic demand. Compared with many of its agricultural sub-sectors, Vietnamese rice is actually very competitive relative to many of its regional peers and is well positioned to ensure the country remains a net exporter. Indeed, it will continue to be one of the world's few rice exporters, the second largest in 2009/10.
Vietnamese dairy consumption has expanded significantly in the last 15 years, driven by relatively large increases in domestic consumption and rising incomes, which have fostered increased milk consumption. To 2013/14, we are forecasting 40.9% growth in Vietnamese fluid milk production to 400,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment, in an effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency, will support the strong growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms begin to play a greater part in total milk production.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
(Due to the length of these URLs, it may be necessary to copy and paste the hyperlinks into your Internet browser's URL address field. Remove the space if one exists.)
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
