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The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.41% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.24%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.92% by the end of the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Czech real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.1% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.2% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.2% in 2010-2014. Assuming an average post-2009 rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 228,000b/d in 2014 – implying imports of at least 216,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise by an annual 4% from an estimated 8.3bcm in 2009 to around 15bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech oil consumption of 19.8%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 187,000b/d to 236,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 120% from an estimated 8.8bcm to 17.9bcm by 2019, met by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The Czech Republic takes eighth place behind Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings with Hungary, Croatia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It shares fifth place with Kazakhstan and Romania. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Azerbaijan below is likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.
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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.41% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.24%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.92% by the end of the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Czech real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.1% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.2% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.2% in 2010-2014. Assuming an average post-2009 rise in consumption of 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 228,000b/d in 2014 – implying imports of at least 216,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming that gas demand will rise by an annual 4% from an estimated 8.3bcm in 2009 to around 15bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech oil consumption of 19.8%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 187,000b/d to 236,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise 120% from an estimated 8.8bcm to 17.9bcm by 2019, met by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The Czech Republic takes eighth place behind Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings with Hungary, Croatia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. The Czech Republic is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. It shares fifth place with Kazakhstan and Romania. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and for oil demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against the country, but gas demand growth is relatively high. Azerbaijan below is likely to challenge the Czech Republic over the medium term.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
Buy Now : Market Research Report
