Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 update on Bulgaria’s telecoms sector contains Q110 operational and financial data published by the country’s leading mobile network operators Mobiltel, which is owned by Telekom Austria, Globul, which is backed by OTE/Deutsche Telekom. Together, these two operators accounted for 87% of Bulgaria’s mobile customer base at the end of March 2010. This report also includes latest figures on the Bulgaria’s fixed-line subscriptions, internet usage, and broadband connections as published by international organisations, including the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the European Commission (EC).

The growth in Bulgaria’s mobile subscriptions continued to slowdown in Q110 as operators discounted inactive SIMs while the government introduced mandatory registration of prepay SIMs. In the 12 months to March 31 2010, the the Bulgariam mobile market increased by just 1% y-o-y to reach 10.467mn. However, this was a 0.6% q-o-q decline over the figures for December 2009 as the operators’ embraked on inactive SIM discounting. Going forward, we expect less rapid subscriber growth in the market, especially as penetration rate hovers around 140%. Rather, BMI expects advanced services, such as data, multimedia, and other advanced VAS to drive revenue growth for operators. Meanwhile, migration of subscribers to postpaid services and the reduction in the prevalence of multiple SIM ownership due to lower termination rates are also factors that will slowdown the subscriber growth in Bulgaria’s mobile sector.

The completion of the CableTEL-Eurocom merger in early 2010 has created a new major player in Bulgaria’s broadband sector hitherto dominated by incumbent operator Vivacom. Both companies already offer triple-play, cable TV, local, long-distance and international telephony and internet services, and the combined entity, branded Blizoo, is believed to control more than 25% of the broadband market and over 80% of the paid-TV market. BMI expects the new company to challenge the dominance of Vivacom. BMI estimates that the imcumbent had over 31% share of the retail broadband market at January 2010. Vivacom’s market dominance has been helped by the continued delay in the design and implementation of an apprioprate framework for local loop unbudling which could see more alternative operators venture into the DSL market.

Latest figures from the ITU indicate that Bulgaria’s fixed-line market declined, but at a slower than expected rate, in 2009. BMI believes the growing interest in multi-play product bundles, often including fixed-line services, is a main factor in the reduced rate of decline in fixed-line subscriptions. Although we do not expect the downtrend to reverse anytime soon, at least within our forecast period, we believe the slowing rate of decline will continue in the medium term.


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Original Source : Bulgaria Telecommunication Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Commercial Banking Report Q4 2010
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.

The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.

Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investors Service’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
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Original Source: Commercial Banking   Market
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Browse the complete Report on : Bulgaria Real Estate Report Q4 2010

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Bulgaria is a country where prices and asset values have to adjust in response to imbalances around a fixed currency peg. In our interviews with in-country sources at the beginning of 2010, we learned that rents had fallen by around one-third in all three sub-sectors and in all three of the cities for which we have gathered data – Sofia, Bourgas and Varna - since early 2009.
Pessimists indicated that further decreases in rentals were likely through 2010. Bulgaria remains in the grip of a long and deflationary recession, characterised by weakness in investment, net government spending and – in particular – consumption. Consumer sentiment and spending is likely to stay soft as unemployment remains high. Only a major devaluation of the lev relative to the euro (to which the currency is currently pegged at a rate of 1.96) could change the dynamics of the economy. However, as yet, such a devaluation has not taken place.
The implication of all this is that Bulgaria is a country where there is unlikely to be substantial supply of new office, retail or industrial space over the coming years. Some of our in-country sources also suggest that the lack of greenfield development sites represents a constraint on new supply. However, demand for new space is likely to remain weak.
Our interviews in mid-2010 indicated that rents had tracked sideways. The impact of softness in demand had been offset by the effect of restricted new supply. There had not been a wholesale fall in capital values. Surprisingly, our in-country sources are looking for modest rises in rents in Sofia and Varna. Looking forward, we expect that rental yields will continue to track sideways over the next year or so, as movements in rents are matched by changes in capital values. From 2010, though, yields should start to rise. In our forecast scenario, we expect that rental yields for office space in Sofia will rise relative to yields for other sub-sectors.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. The questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues for actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, over both the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights to be gleaned by comparing the real estate sector of a country with its regional peers?
In Q3 we introduced a very substantial improvement to our reports. We incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology section of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data through a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Real Estate Report Q4 2010

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Bulgaria is a country where prices and asset values have to adjust in response to imbalances around a fixed currency peg. In our interviews with in-country sources at the beginning of 2010, we learned that rents had fallen by around one-third in all three sub-sectors and in all three of the cities for which we have gathered data – Sofia, Bourgas and Varna - since early 2009.
Pessimists indicated that further decreases in rentals were likely through 2010. Bulgaria remains in the grip of a long and deflationary recession, characterised by weakness in investment, net government spending and – in particular – consumption. Consumer sentiment and spending is likely to stay soft as unemployment remains high. Only a major devaluation of the lev relative to the euro (to which the currency is currently pegged at a rate of 1.96) could change the dynamics of the economy. However, as yet, such a devaluation has not taken place.
The implication of all this is that Bulgaria is a country where there is unlikely to be substantial supply of new office, retail or industrial space over the coming years. Some of our in-country sources also suggest that the lack of greenfield development sites represents a constraint on new supply. However, demand for new space is likely to remain weak.
Our interviews in mid-2010 indicated that rents had tracked sideways. The impact of softness in demand had been offset by the effect of restricted new supply. There had not been a wholesale fall in capital values. Surprisingly, our in-country sources are looking for modest rises in rents in Sofia and Varna. Looking forward, we expect that rental yields will continue to track sideways over the next year or so, as movements in rents are matched by changes in capital values. From 2010, though, yields should start to rise. In our forecast scenario, we expect that rental yields for office space in Sofia will rise relative to yields for other sub-sectors.

Key Features Of This Report

This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. The questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues for actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, over both the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights to be gleaned by comparing the real estate sector of a country with its regional peers?
In Q3 we introduced a very substantial improvement to our reports. We incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology section of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data through a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.

About Us

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


Contact:

Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Insurance Report Q4 2010

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Writing in July 2010, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2009. We have generally been able to use data published in 2010 to adjust our estimates for the year as a whole. According to the Financial Supervision Commission (FSC), the total premiums for 2009 were BGN1.68bn, which comprised non-life premiums of BGN1.46bn and life premiums of BGN225mn. In 2014 the corresponding figures should be BGN3.01bn, BGN2.32bn and BGN684mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we expect non-life penetration to rise from 2.35% in 2009 to 2.70% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$22 per capita to US$54. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Bulgaria is 51.2 out of 100.
Bulgaria’s Insurance Sector
The figures published by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission (FSC) in relation to the first ten months of 2009 showed that the period was a difficult one for Bulgaria’s insurers. Non-life premiums contracted by 1% to BGN1,613mn, which was a respectable result given economic conditions for much of the year and the financial problems of neighbouring Greece. The figures show that across much of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) non-life premiums changed by 3% in local currency terms in 2009, so this outcome for Bulgaria was unexceptional.
As is the case in Greece, premiums for compulsory motor third-party liability (CMTPL) cover increased, from BGN246mn to BGN302mn, while CASCO insurance premiums fell from BGN565mn to BGN505mn. Fire insurance premiums rose from BGN143mn in the first 10 months of 2009 to BGN170mn from the corresponding period in 2008. Bulgarian operators DZI, Lev Insurance and Armeec increased their market shares within the segment to 14.1%, 11.0% and 10.4% respectively. The other leading players in the non-life segment typically lost market share slightly. The local subsidiaries of Vienna Insurance Group (Bulstrad) and Allianz were the largest foreign groups, with market shares of 15% and 10% respectively.
However, life premiums have slumped, to the extent that we have revised down our forecasts for the segment in 2009 and subsequent years. The FSC’s data suggest a 20% fall in premiums to BGN177mn for the first 10 months of 2009. There were similarly large contractions in life premiums in Hungary, Poland and Russia. In the non-life segment there were even bigger shifts in market shares. UNIQA’s life operation’s market share fell from 15.0% in the first 10 months of 2008 to 9.6% in the same period of 2009. Several of other foreign controlled groups also experienced shrinkage in market share, although Bulstrad’s share of the segment rose to 10.0%. The three largest life groups were Allianz Bulgaria (21.83% market share), DZI (15.7%) and ALICO (10.2%).
Issues To Watch
Stabilisation Of Life Premiums
This will be an indicator that local savers perceive an improvement in the medium-term outlook for Bulgaria’s economy and financial markets.
Motor Insurance Premiums
Given that the growth in CMTPL premiums is probably unsustainable, we expect a more difficult market for non-life insurance overall in the coming months.
The Competitive Landscape
The small Bulgarian insurance market is crowded. Although some companies are committed because they see Bulgaria as an important part of a regional business strategy and/or because they hold dominant shares in at least one of the two major segments, we would not be surprised if there is rationalisation. The contraction in the life segment, from what was a low level of development, is disappointing.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

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We continue to view Bulgaria as one of the less attractive pharmaceutical markets in the Emerging Europe region. For the Q410 update to our Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Bulgaria is ranked 15th of the 20 markets surveyed in the region, while – globally – it ranks 53rd out of the total of 77 markets assessed in our ever-expanding pharmaceutical universe. While the country’s regulatory environment is largely considered adequate, especially given the increased controls over prescribing and dispensing practices, the value of the pharmaceutical market will be limited by poor market dynamics, healthcare debts and prolonged economic difficulties.
Through to 2014, we expect the market to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.91% in local currency terms (but just of 2.27% in US dollars), reaching BGN2.44bn (US$1.42bn). Inflationary trends – we expect low and steady inflation to persist over the medium term – will contribute to this pattern, as will the fact that volume sales have been falling. Over the 2009-2019 forecast period, growth rates will average 5.47% and 3.16%, respectively. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) will remain conditional on demonstrable progress in tackling corruption in the country. To this end, the Bulgarian Competition Protection Commission (CPC) imposed a BGN30,000 (US$19,299) fine on the National Health Insurance Fund (NZOK) for abusing its monopoly position in July 2010, while a recent investigation into former Bulgarian health minister Bozhidar Nachev has revealed further offences made by the fund’s high-profile officers.
The share of generics in volume terms has been volatile as older, cheaper medicines have been withdrawn from the market and newer branded generics have been introduced. Nevertheless, the generics market is still calculated to be five times larger than the patented sector by volume. Value-wise, penetration is low compared with many regional markets, despite the country’s reference pricing system. In fact, in June 2010, Mila Vlaskovska, Bulgaria's national pharmacology consultant, stated that the value of generic medicines is 30-60% lower than the originator products. By 2014, and despite low prices, we expect the patented market to account for 35% of the total market by value, due to patent expirations and general climate of cost-containment.
Nevertheless, the constraints of the domestic market continue to push domestic players to expand abroad. In fact, in June 2010, novinite.com reported that major pharmaceutical companies in Bulgaria registered a 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in combined turnover to BGN154.2mn (US$96.92mn) in Q110. The six Bulgarian companies – Sopharma, Medica, Sevtopolis, Momina Krepost, Unifarm and Septona – have attributed the strong performance to exports to Balkan countries, Russia and Ukraine. In Bulgaria, however, Sopharma and eight other companies are being investigated by the country’s anti-trust watchdog, over allegations of cartel formation.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q4 2010

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Bulgaria remains, in our opinion, one of the least attractive food and drinks markets in the emerging Europe region. A poor economic outlook, with little optimism expected in the short term, is one of the key factors responsible for Bulgaria’s low ranking, with local currency depreciation also deterring foreign investment. In 2010, the consumer outlook in Bulgaria will remain suboptimal, given the expected 1% decrease in real private consumption. Additionally, the food and non-alcoholic beverages component of the consumer price basket remains adversely afflicted by deflation, with prices falling 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May 2010, having recorded negative growth since April 2009. While some recovery of food and drinks spending is expected in the latter parts of the forecast period, other emerging markets – both in the region and wider – are likely to attract more attention than Bulgaria.


Headline Industry Data

2010 per capita food consumption: +0.99%; forecast to 2014:+12.66 %
2010 alcoholic drinks sales (value): +1.07%; forecast to 2014: +12.21%%
2010 soft drinks sales (value): -3.25%; forecast to 2014: +8.66 %
2010 mass grocery retail sales: -2.77%; forecast to 2014: +18.54%


Key Company Trends

Retail Expansion Outside the Capital – Over the past months, Rewe-owned supermarket chain Billa
reported that it was planning to invest BGN65-71mn (US$40.8-44.5mn) per annum during 2011-2014 in Bulgaria. The company plans to open 10 new outlets by investing more than BGN65mn in the country by end-2010 in order to expand its store presence, according to company executives. We expect regional launches to gradually pick up over the H210 period after geographical recalibration in 2009. Along with Russia and Ukraine, Bulgaria was largely responsible for driving Rewe's foreign market sales growth in 2009, boosted by the introduction of its discount banner Penny in Bulgaria.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Autos Report Q4 2010
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So far, 2010 has been a mixed picture for the Bulgarian car market. Car sales have continued to fall compared with 2009, but sales have once again begun to pick up. June 2010 has been the best month of the year so far, indicating that sales have begun to increase as the Bulgarian economy begins to recover from the economic crisis. Over the first half of the year 8,998 vehicles were sold – 5,854 fewer than the first half of 2009. In the first quarter sales shrank by 42.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), a figure which has slowed to 39.4%. BMI expects that many of the lost sales will be recouped in the second half of 2010. China's largest private auto firm, Great Wall Motors, has continued with its large investment in a production facility in Bulgaria. This investment, which will likely spark the expansion of other sectors, has been welcomed by the Bulgarian government as an opportunity for increased ties with China. The two countries are building a close trading relationship and are working to increase Bulgarian exports to China, which have grown 238% in the first five months of 2010. This increasingly cooperative trade relationship bodes well for Chinese investment into the Bulgarian auto industry due to Sofia's focus on developing a successful components sector. Additionally, an agreement between the Bulgarian government and Zhejiang province has been concluded to encourage the development of business contacts and for investment in Bulgarian industry. The province is an important industrial centre, with an increasingly large auto industry.
Beyond the investment in new auto plants, the components sector has also shown signs of improvement. Monbat, the Bulgarian car battery supplier, has reported that sales are up 75.08% in the first half of 2010. This dramatically improved performance reflects broader global economic trends, as car manufacturers around the globe ramp up production to meet post-crisis demand. The increased demand has ensured that the firm's half year profits are up 41% to BGN10.7mn. The trend for further sales growth is expected to continue as the world auto industry begins to exceed pre-crisis production.
Overall, the economic situation in Bulgaria is also improving. In an interesting revision, the Center for Economic Development has increased its 2010 GDP growth prediction from 2009's prediction of negative 1.5% to positive growth of 1%. Growth of any sort should be a boon to the Bulgarian auto market as consumers begin to feel that the worst of the crisis has passed. Despite the market being dominated by the sales of used cars, this will also have a positive effect on new car sales. Growth is expected to pick up further in 2011 as the Bulgarian economy shakes off the worst aspects of the global economic crisis. The improving economy, growing global auto market and the improving ties between Bulgaria and China are promising developments for the country's auto industry and market. Overall, BMI expects car sales to increase 50% in the five-year forecast period to 2014. However, it is important to note that this figure still represents a 30% drop over 2008's car sales. The Bulgarian economy, like the world economy, is not expected to begin booming any time soon and car sales have been impacted by this as used cars continue to dominate the car market.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


Contact:

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