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BMI has taken the opportunity to revise upwards its forecasts for the mobile telephony services market in the Philippines this quarter. Q110 showed stronger than expected growth in terms of subscriber additions and the media reports that even stronger growth may have been achieved in Q210. The market is being propelled ever upwards by growing demand for 3G and mobile broadband services. The key operators - Smart Communications, Globe Telecom and Digitel (Sun Cellular) are all aggressively marketing their nextgeneration services, accompanied by a blitz of pricing promotions and the inclusion of must-have handsets and related devices as a means of enticing customers onto their networks.

In the meantime, they are also slashing the prices of basic voice and data services, to the extent that ‘bucket’ offerings now predominate and account for the majority of ‘new’ customers. Thanks to the launch of a number of new unlimited call packages, Smart and Digitel are thought to have done exceptionally well in Q210, although actual data were not forthcoming at the time of writing. We now expect that this trend will continue for the next few years, at least until basic ARPUs fall below acceptable levels. By 2014, we expect there will be 117.5mn mobile subscribers. 3G connections will account for 12.9% of the market by that time. There may even be two new operators on the scene, assuming the regulator can extricate itself from a potentially messy court battle that places the entity’s controversial 2005 3G licensing contest at the heart of the issue.

We remain concerned that the apparent strong growth is actually built on the cannibalisation of the existing mobile subscriber base. In other words, 2G customers are taking advantage of very low cost 3G services yet keeping their 2G phones active. Multiple SIM ownership is less of a problem than subscriber inactivity and we believe that many millions of inactive subscriptions remain on the operators’ databases, artificially inflating reported subscriber numbers.

The real growth story in the Philippines, though, is that of broadband, with uptake of both fixed and wireless offerings a very long way from running out of steam. The fixed broadband market is constrained by the limitations of the fixed-line operators’ networks (from both a technological and a geographic coverage perspective), but interest in xDSL and fixed WiMAX services appears to be strong. Mobile broadband, however, appears to have attracted a great deal of interest, and market leaders PLDT (along with its Smart Communications subsidiary) and Globe Telecom are reporting rapid subscriber growth for 3G/3.5G-based wireless broadband offerings, fuelled by very attractively-priced offers.

BMI forecasts that, by the end of 2014, there will be around 5.044mn broadband subscribers, reflecting a penetration rate of 5%.

The Philippines remains in 12th place in this quarter’s Business Environment Ratings analysis; its score was down by 0.8pps quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). Despite better than expected mobile subscriber growth, average mobile ARPUs remain low at around US$3.74 in Q110 and the likelihood is that this will remain the case (or maybe even fall to a flat US$3 before too long) as the three major operators unveil further heavily-discounted services and unlimited call-and-text buckets.
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Original Source : Philippines Telecommunication Market

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Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 update on Bulgaria’s telecoms sector contains Q110 operational and financial data published by the country’s leading mobile network operators Mobiltel, which is owned by Telekom Austria, Globul, which is backed by OTE/Deutsche Telekom. Together, these two operators accounted for 87% of Bulgaria’s mobile customer base at the end of March 2010. This report also includes latest figures on the Bulgaria’s fixed-line subscriptions, internet usage, and broadband connections as published by international organisations, including the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the European Commission (EC).

The growth in Bulgaria’s mobile subscriptions continued to slowdown in Q110 as operators discounted inactive SIMs while the government introduced mandatory registration of prepay SIMs. In the 12 months to March 31 2010, the the Bulgariam mobile market increased by just 1% y-o-y to reach 10.467mn. However, this was a 0.6% q-o-q decline over the figures for December 2009 as the operators’ embraked on inactive SIM discounting. Going forward, we expect less rapid subscriber growth in the market, especially as penetration rate hovers around 140%. Rather, BMI expects advanced services, such as data, multimedia, and other advanced VAS to drive revenue growth for operators. Meanwhile, migration of subscribers to postpaid services and the reduction in the prevalence of multiple SIM ownership due to lower termination rates are also factors that will slowdown the subscriber growth in Bulgaria’s mobile sector.

The completion of the CableTEL-Eurocom merger in early 2010 has created a new major player in Bulgaria’s broadband sector hitherto dominated by incumbent operator Vivacom. Both companies already offer triple-play, cable TV, local, long-distance and international telephony and internet services, and the combined entity, branded Blizoo, is believed to control more than 25% of the broadband market and over 80% of the paid-TV market. BMI expects the new company to challenge the dominance of Vivacom. BMI estimates that the imcumbent had over 31% share of the retail broadband market at January 2010. Vivacom’s market dominance has been helped by the continued delay in the design and implementation of an apprioprate framework for local loop unbudling which could see more alternative operators venture into the DSL market.

Latest figures from the ITU indicate that Bulgaria’s fixed-line market declined, but at a slower than expected rate, in 2009. BMI believes the growing interest in multi-play product bundles, often including fixed-line services, is a main factor in the reduced rate of decline in fixed-line subscriptions. Although we do not expect the downtrend to reverse anytime soon, at least within our forecast period, we believe the slowing rate of decline will continue in the medium term.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
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Tel: +1-888-989-8004
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Original Source : Bulgaria Telecommunication Market
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