Browse the complete Report on: Romania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Romania Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.79% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.53% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Romania’s estimated share of 2009 regional gas consumption was 2.09%, while its share of production is put at 1.32%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.13%, with the country accounting for 0.84% of supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level. Romanian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.0% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.0% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. Beyond the weakness of 2009/2010, oil demand could potentially grow at 3.0% per annum, rising to 254,000b/d by 2014. In spite of greater efforts by the OMV-backed national oil company Petrom, we see domestic oil production slipping from an estimated 95,000b/d in 2009 to 77,000b/d by 2014. This implies rising import levels, with volumes up to 177,000b/d by 2014. Natural gas consumption of an estimated 14bcm in 2009 can be expected to reach almost 17bcm by 2014. Romania’s gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.6bcm by 2014, providing an import requirement of at least 8.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian oil consumption of 31.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 126,000b/d to 241,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Domestic production is forecast to fall from an estimated 95,000b/d to 53,000b/d during the period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from 14bcm to 20bcm by 2019, which will be met by 13bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Romania holds sixth place just ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, behind Turkey and Russia. Its gas production growth outlook, asset maturity and under-developed competitive landscape work against the country and are exacerbated by poor country risk factors. There is little immediate chance of Romania catching up with either Turkey or Russia in the rankings. Romania is above the mid-point of the table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but progress from its current joint fifth-place ranking (shared with the Czech Republic and Azerbaijan) rather unlikely. The country achieves decent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and retail site intensity. Azerbaijan is capable of pulling ahead of Romania over the medium term.


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Browse the complete Report on: Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2010
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to the Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to the Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investors Service’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.


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Browse the complete Report on : Romania Tourism Report Q4 2010

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Tourism Overview
In 2009, the Romanian tourism sector experienced a tough year, after very good performances in the previous two years, with the number of foreign visitors down by over 14% year-on-year (y-o-y). The EU accounted for 63% of total arrivals. Data for January-May 2010 show a continuing decline in arrivals, of 3.5% y-o-y in those five months, although the rate of decline has shown improvement during the course of the year. Data for the early months of 2010 also show a fall in the number of resident departures abroad, although at a slightly less steep rate than in 2009 when the number of visitors going abroad declined by about 11% y-o-y.
Hospitality
In the wake of a major deterioration in the hospitality sector in 2009, with tourism nights by foreign and domestic tourists in all accommodation establishments down 16% y-o-y, figures for the first five months of this year show an improving trend after a poor start. The total number of tourist nights in all accommodation establishments fell by over 3% y-o-y in January-May 2010, with nights by foreign and domestic tourists declining by about 1% and 4% y-o-y respectively. Foreign tourists accounted for nearly 21% of total overnight stays.
Forecast Scenario
This quarter, we maintain our view that there will be a slight recovery in visitor arrivals to Romania in 2010, with further acceleration in growth expected in 2011, to 7.2% y-o-y. This outlook is based mainly on economic recovery in Romania’s main source markets, including, most importantly, the eurozone, where growth is forecast at 1.1% and 1.4% – downgraded from 1.6% this quarter – in 2010 and 2011 respectively. However, in Hungary, an important source market, a relatively strong economic recovery is not expected until 2011. Although the leu looks set to remain under pressure against the euro in the short term, helping to boost the recovery in foreign tourism, BMI’s forecast of an appreciation trend from 2011 is likely to constrain the growth of domestic tourism over the forecast period to 2014.
Tarom 
The Romanian national flag carrier Tarom reported negative annual growth of almost -7% in passenger numbers last year but data for the first five months of 2010 show a sharp turnaround, with passenger traffic up by over 30% y-o-y to about 730,000 travellers.
Blue Air
After very strong growth in passenger numbers of about 30% y-o-y in 2008, Romanian low-cost airline Blue Air recorded growth in passenger traffic of 54% y-o-y in 2009, well above target, with 1.7mn customers. Starting in 2010, the airline offers tickets to destinations outside Europe in partnership with Blue Panorama Airlines from Italy.


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Browse the complete Report on – Romania Shipping Report Q4 2010

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The Romanian port of Constantza has become a port of call on a new container shipping line that was launched on the Danube. HELO 1, operated by Austrian company Helogistics Holding GmbH, started operations in Budapest in Hungary, using the container barge SL 139. According to Helogistics, this is the first regular service to operate weekly deliveries to the ports of Budapest, Belgrade and Constantza. HELO 1's service from Budapest to Constantza will take eight days and the journey back 11 days. It will take the line's vessel four days to get to Constantza from Belgrade; the trip back takes eight days. The regular service, as well as serving containers on the Danube, also offers the possibility of transporting project cargoes of up to 250 tonnes. Helogistics promises to stick to the schedule 'regardless of utilised capacity'. Weekly services in both directions, connecting three ports, will use container barges with a capacity of 144 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). We expect cargo handled at Romania's key port, the Port of Constantza (POC), to continue declining this year. In general tonnage terms, the port's throughput will decrease by 13.5% to 36.36mn tonnes, following a poor 2009 performance when the port was not able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes fell 32.1% to 42.01mn tonnes last year). Container movements at the Port of Constantza will fall by 10.4% to 532,424TEUs this year. The port's growth has been consistently positive in recent years, but closely linked to international shipping fluctuations; last year box throughput slumped by a sharp 56.96%, after beginning to slide down in 2008, when it fell by 2.16% year-on-year. Affected by the global recession, Romania's total trade plummeted by 11.9% in real terms in 2009, and we see a slow 2.7% rebound in 2010, followed by 4.7% growth in 2011. This year exports will grow more strongly than imports in real terms (6.0% compared with 4.0%).


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Browse the complete Report on: Romania Food and Drink Report Q4 2010

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Our expectations for Romania’s food and beverages spending are modest. The performance of the markets for the remainder of the current year will be shaped by the recent increase in the value-added tax (VAT) to 25%, which has in turn led the central bank to upwardly revise inflation figures, as well as high unemployment levels. As consumer confidence is far from recovered in relation to pre-crisis levels, we expect that discretion will continue to be exercised in regards to purchases of foodstuffs and beverages, with premium items to suffer the most.
Headline Industry Data - 2010 per capita food consumption = +2.40; forecast to 2014 = +12.01%
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +0.24%; forecast to 2014 = +16.32%
- 2010 soft drinks sales = +3.58%; forecast to 2014 = +24.63%
- 2010 mass grocery retail = +6.50%; forecast to 2014 = +44.11%

Key Company Trends
Foreign Players Increasing Stakes in Local Companies – In July 2010, a 54% stake in Romanian dairy distributor Delaco was acquired by French Bongrain SA, which deals in cheese and dairy products, having been given a green light by regulatory authorities. The Romanian arm of confectionery giant Cadbury – Kandia-Excelent – is to be sold to international investment fund Oryxa Capital, as part of ongoing efforts to meet European Commission competitive requirements following Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury in Q110. Global and regional confectionery giants Hershey, Nestlé and Ülker were all linked with Kandia-Excelent, which is particularly strong in sugar confectionery and chocolates. Finally, although the deal is currently being assessed by the local competition authorities, German mass grocery retail (MGR) player Lidl has moved to take over compatriot Tengelmann’s retail chain Plus, both in Romania and in Bulgaria.
Key Risks to Outlook
Economic Woes – While early signs have been positive, we caution that the Romanian economic recovery will remain fragile, with weaker external demand and the overhang of high unemployment preventing a return to pre-crisis rates of growth. Actual unemployment and the fear over further job losses (especially given the government's plan to shrink the public sector) will keep household spending weak and prevent economic growth from hitting the 9% growth rates recorded at the peak of the previous cycle, especially given the recent VAT hike, from 19% to 25%. While the IMF has allowed Romania to target a larger fiscal deficit this year (6.8% of GDP, rather than 5.9% originally stipulated), this may prove insufficient leeway, with significant risks of delay over the disbursement of outstanding loan tranches. Thus, while fiscal consolidation will further weaken the economy over the medium term, a failure to implement new austerity measures would risk suspension of the IMF loan program, which in turn would lead to deterioration in foreign investment climate and result in Romania being further sidelined by multinationals looking to expand in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).


About Us

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
(Due to the length of these URLs, it may be necessary to copy and paste the hyperlinks into your Internet browser's URL address field. Remove the space if one exists.)


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