Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Shipping Report Q4 2010
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Ports in the Philippines have been on a growth curve as 2010 progressed. In late June the Philippines Ports Authority (PPA) said that cargo volumes handled grew by 23% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter, reaching 39.53mn tonnes. Box traffic was up by 21% to 1.07mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Significant increases in general tonnage were registered at the ports of Iloilo, Puerto Princesa, Iligan, San Fernando and Dapitan. By traded commodities, growth was mainly due to increased shipments of maize, cement, grains, coconut oil, flour, chemicals, coal, mineral fuels and limestone, the PPA said. The maritime industry welcomed the fact that the Philippines' general elections produced a clear winner, the Liberal Party's Benigno Aquino III, who initiated a six-year term, replacing the unpopular outgoing President, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. While this pointed to political stability and strong leadership, less good news for the industry perhaps was that the new president lacked a clear majority in Congress, meaning his policies would be subject to significant horse-trading.
That said, BMI was upbeat about the country's immediate economic prospects, raising our forecast for this years' GDP growth to 4.9% (from 4.4% previously) on the back of dynamic performances from both private consumption and investment. On the other hand, we have eased back the projection for 2011 to 4.0% (down from 4.4%) because of the prospect of a 'double dip' slowdown in global growth rates. Our medium term forecast is for the Philippines' GDP expansion to average 4.6% per annum over the next five years, a respectable number although slower than in the period before the 2009 recession. Data for the first quarter of 2010 showed port tonnage recovering strongly. BMI is projecting an increase in volume at Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), up by 25.2%, after a major 42.0% surge last year. At the Port of Cebu we see this year's volume gaining by 9.2% . The MICT is expected to see 25.5% container handling growth adding to the significant increase already experienced in 2009, when most of the world's ports were suffering from the recession. The Port of Cebu will see growth of 3.3%. In real terms, we expect the Philippines' total trade (imports + exports) to recover this year, following the steep 8.8% fall in 2009. With the domestic economy performing ahead of expectations, we see trade increasing by 9.6% in 2010, making up for the previous year's setback. Across our five-year forecast period we are projecting average annual real-terms trade growth of 7.1%, ahead of GDP. Imports will lead the way with average annual growth of 8.1%, ahead of exports at 6.1%. In nominal terms, BMI is projecting this year's total exports at US$58.3bn, against imports of US$61.4bn. The small deficit on the balance of trade will widen over the next few years, to over US$10bn by 2014.
The risks to our Philippines ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. We have already factored in something of a growth slowdown in 2011, reflecting the 'double dip' pause in global economic growth rates that we are anticipating. However the risk is that the slowdown could be sharper than we are expecting, leading to a weaker foreign trade performance, which would have a negative effect on the industry. A second risk - which we rate as having a low probability , but wich is worth keeping in mind - is that the new government of President Aquino will encounter significant difficulties in building a supportive coalition in Congress, and could therefore encounter an early policy deadlock.
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
Ports in the Philippines have been on a growth curve as 2010 progressed. In late June the Philippines Ports Authority (PPA) said that cargo volumes handled grew by 23% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter, reaching 39.53mn tonnes. Box traffic was up by 21% to 1.07mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Significant increases in general tonnage were registered at the ports of Iloilo, Puerto Princesa, Iligan, San Fernando and Dapitan. By traded commodities, growth was mainly due to increased shipments of maize, cement, grains, coconut oil, flour, chemicals, coal, mineral fuels and limestone, the PPA said. The maritime industry welcomed the fact that the Philippines' general elections produced a clear winner, the Liberal Party's Benigno Aquino III, who initiated a six-year term, replacing the unpopular outgoing President, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. While this pointed to political stability and strong leadership, less good news for the industry perhaps was that the new president lacked a clear majority in Congress, meaning his policies would be subject to significant horse-trading.
That said, BMI was upbeat about the country's immediate economic prospects, raising our forecast for this years' GDP growth to 4.9% (from 4.4% previously) on the back of dynamic performances from both private consumption and investment. On the other hand, we have eased back the projection for 2011 to 4.0% (down from 4.4%) because of the prospect of a 'double dip' slowdown in global growth rates. Our medium term forecast is for the Philippines' GDP expansion to average 4.6% per annum over the next five years, a respectable number although slower than in the period before the 2009 recession. Data for the first quarter of 2010 showed port tonnage recovering strongly. BMI is projecting an increase in volume at Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), up by 25.2%, after a major 42.0% surge last year. At the Port of Cebu we see this year's volume gaining by 9.2% . The MICT is expected to see 25.5% container handling growth adding to the significant increase already experienced in 2009, when most of the world's ports were suffering from the recession. The Port of Cebu will see growth of 3.3%. In real terms, we expect the Philippines' total trade (imports + exports) to recover this year, following the steep 8.8% fall in 2009. With the domestic economy performing ahead of expectations, we see trade increasing by 9.6% in 2010, making up for the previous year's setback. Across our five-year forecast period we are projecting average annual real-terms trade growth of 7.1%, ahead of GDP. Imports will lead the way with average annual growth of 8.1%, ahead of exports at 6.1%. In nominal terms, BMI is projecting this year's total exports at US$58.3bn, against imports of US$61.4bn. The small deficit on the balance of trade will widen over the next few years, to over US$10bn by 2014.
The risks to our Philippines ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. We have already factored in something of a growth slowdown in 2011, reflecting the 'double dip' pause in global economic growth rates that we are anticipating. However the risk is that the slowdown could be sharper than we are expecting, leading to a weaker foreign trade performance, which would have a negative effect on the industry. A second risk - which we rate as having a low probability , but wich is worth keeping in mind - is that the new government of President Aquino will encounter significant difficulties in building a supportive coalition in Congress, and could therefore encounter an early policy deadlock.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
