Browse the complete Report on : Egypt Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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Political risks are rising, and the Israeli flotilla raid has put the Egyptian government under further pressure ahead of the November election. We have revised down our short-term political risk rating from 64.8 to 59.8, as the likelihood of policy shifts (within the constitutional and electoral framework) has increased. We also think that the presidential polls could be brought forward, to get the risks of a difficult transition out of the way and reassure concerned investors.
Public anger towards President Hosni Mubarak and his party continues to grow. News out of Gaza always plays badly for Mubarak, who is considered to be equally responsible (along with Israel) for the blockade of the territory, and the Israeli storming of a Turkish aid ship heading for Gaza (resulting in the deaths of nine people), is no exception. The popular belief appears to be that if Egypt would open its border with Gaza to allow essential goods, aid ships such as the Mavi Marmara would not have to be there in the first place.
Egypt not only keeps its border closed, it has also destroyed many of the tunnels through which the people of Gaza import goods (often with Palestinian smugglers inside). The government fears the influence of Hamas on its own population, as well as the prospect of losing the support of the US by indirectly supporting Hamas (by allowing goods through). However, such is the strength of Egyptian feeling on the Gaza Strip that Mubarak announced the opening of the Rafah border immediately after the flotilla incident.
On the economic front, the latest figures support our view that Egyptian growth will slightly accelerate in FY09/10 to 4.9%, though we maintain that a drop back to 4.8% in FY10/11 is likely as weakening external demand weighs on growth. In 2011, the economy will be held back by relatively low domestic demand compounded by a downturn in demand in Europe, undermining Egyptian exports. Around 70% of Egypt's exports are directed to the eurozone, which for the time being looks unlikely to see a strong recovery in demand, preventing a substantial contribution of trade to headline economic growth. Through 2011-2014 we forecast the growth rate to improve, averaging 5.2%.
Although Egypt lacks a substantial armaments design industry, it remains the most prolific manufacturer of military equipment among Arab states. Egypt has the capability to produce a variety of trainer aircraft, alongside armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs), artillery pieces, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and M1A1 Abrams tanks. It is the second-largest recipient of US military aid behind Israel and relies almost exclusively on the superpower for its imports. Egypt’s military manufacturing base benefits from coproduction deals with US multinational firms but a self-sufficient industry remains a distant hope.

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Browse the complete Report on: Libya Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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There was a time when the analysis of Libya was quite straightforward. The country was a pariah state, a supporter of multiple terrorist organisations and hardline anti-West. In the cold war dichotomy is was squarely in the Soviet camp.
Over time, though, that simple position has become more complex. Libya is now quite enigmatic. It uses its oil revenues and consequent economic leverage rather than terrorism to bargain for what it wants. It adopts a much more conciliatory approach to the EU and has lowered tensions with the United States, without actually being friendly towards the United States. On the other hand, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi still employs erratic, contradictory and arbitrary changes in policy that makes predicting future decisions almost impossible.
There is an increasingly important but unanswered question hanging over the succession. Qadhafi has been in power since 1969. His son Saif sometimes, but only sometimes, looks likely to succeed. Saif favours a more liberal economic policy and improved international relations. The old guard opposes this. While the old guard holds a degree of power, they are indeed old in a country where one-third of the population is under 15 years of age. Finding jobs for this coming surge of young people entering the workforce will be the most important single factor in maintaining social cohesion.
Underneath the occasionally eccentric behaviours the trend has clearly been towards a more international outlook. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which had supplied almost all Libya’s military equipment, dealt a blow to its capability. Lacking a meaningful industrial base, Libya struggled to even maintain the (slowly obsolescing) equipment it already had.
In recent times. Libya has again been dealing with Russia for military equipment. It was reported in February 2010 that a deal had been struck to buy arms worth US$2bn. The news agency Interfax reported that Libya wants to acquire 20 fighter planes, at least two S-300 air defence systems, several dozen T-90C tanks and other arms. Other reports however say that the signing of any contracts have been continually delayed because a financial agreement cannot be concluded.
For the first time, Libya is now looking outside Russia for its equipment. There have been discussion with French companies with regard to naval purchases. Polish companies have proposed upgrades for Libya’s armoured vehicles and air defence radars as well as a range of new equipment. In 2008, the UK signed a US$165mn contract to supply a tactical communications and data system. Deals have also been mooted with Italy and Ukraine. A Libyan delegation visited South Korea to explore the possibility of buying equipment there. Libya’s oil revenues do give it the ability to complete quite large re-equipment programmes.
While the future remains quite uncertain there is reason for some level of optimism that the process of opening up and modernisation will continue. The greatest risk is probably the potential, unless the level of employment can be increased, that a large pool of unemployed and disaffected youth living under an ageing authoritarian regime will rebel.

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Browse the complete Report on: Israel Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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The defence and security issues surrounding Israel are well understood, essentially static and seemingly intractable.
On each side is both a house divided and parties ready to make demands they well know cannot be accepted by the other. On the Palestinian side there is no one voice that speaks for Palestine, now effectively divided between Gaza and the West Bank. At the same time Israeli intransigence is a reflection of the dynamics within its ruling coalition.
International attention, almost all of it unflattering towards Israel, focussed on the clumsy way in which the Turkish supported fleet challenging the blockade of Gaza was intercepted.
On the ground though almost nothing changes. Israel remains threatened by rocket attacks and the likelihood of other terrorist activities. The occupied territories remain poor, unstable and dangerous. In this report we discuss several different scenarios, both internal to Israel as well as external to it, that describe how the present steady state position might be destabilised.
From a defence equipment market perspective, Israel is both a large consumer and also a significant producer/exporter of military hardware.
Economically, the position is mixed but mostly positive. The economy has returned to growth, recording GDP growth of 3.2% for the 12 months to the end of Q1, as compared to just 1.7% for calendar 2009. We expect the external sector to bounce back during the next 12 months, but that exports will grow more slowly than imports. The constraint here is that Israel exports principally to the slower growing developed economies. In 2009 the US accounted for 35% of all Israeli exports and the EU for 29%. The key for accelerated export growth will lie in Israel’s ability to develop new markets among the faster growing economies, especially in Asia.
Above all this though hangs the risk of a war that would disrupt both production and investment.


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Browse the complete Report on: Iraq Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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Iraq is at its most stable since the 2003 US-led invasion, but the numerous challenges it faces present significant risks – with the result that it could descend in to chaos once again. That said, our core scenario is for the gradual consolidation of the democratic political system, which will in turn provide a platform for long-term economic development. As well as ridding Iraq of its purported weapons of mass destruction, the 2003 US-led invasion was ‘sold’ by the protagonists as a move to bring freedom to a population living under Saddam Hussein’s tyranny, and as an attempt to seed democracy in the Middle East.
In the subsequent years, as Iraq descended into sectarian violence and the civilian death toll soared, these apparently worthy intentions were dismissed by many observers as having been wildly over-optimistic. Moreover, some commentators suggested that these stated goals were merely a smokescreen for the US’s real objectives, namely ‘stealing’ Iraq’s oil. However, with levels of violence at post-invasion lows, the transition from dictatorship to democracy appears to be on more solid foundations. Indeed, March 2010 saw Iraq’s third round of post-Saddam national elections, contested by a wide range of both religiousbased and secular political parties.
On the macroeconomic front, we have kept our GDP forecasts for Iraq broadly unchanged this quarter: between 2010 and 2014, we are pencilling in average growth of 5.6% per annum. We see real growth coming in at a relatively subdued 3.8% and 4.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, before expansion accelerates towards the end of the forecast period on the back of increases in oil production capacity. The cornerstone of the Iraqi economy for the foreseeable future will remain the oil (and, to a lesser extent, gas) sector. Iraq's proven oil reserves of 115bn bbl are the third highest in the world, behind those of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and given that much of the country is as yet unexplored there are upside risks to this figure. The next decade should see oil output increase considerably as the foreign oil companies, which over the past year have concluded major service contracts with Baghdad, ramp up their investments in Iraq.
Iraq does not have a functioning defence industry capable of meeting the requirements of its security forces. The nascent polity and the current security situation in the country, along with the instability and the widespread lack of infrastructure, have not allowed such an industry to be supported. It is very unlikely that a defence industry of note will be established at any level in Iraq for at least the next decade. Iraq attracts a BMI composite security risk rating of 56, with a relatively strong interstate rating, at 88. Despite recent tensions with Turkey, Iraq’s relatively high interstate rating suggests that it is highly unlikely that it will become a primary party to an inter-state conflict in the medium term. Its security rating is let down by its domestic ratings, which are concerned with threats from terrorism and criminal groups.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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The South African arms industry has yet to recover from the decline brought on by the momentous events in the 1990s, including the end of Apartheid. In 1993, there were 122 firms gaining more than half their revenue from defence; in 2007, there were 49 suppliers in the industry. Before the 1990s, the industry had been heavily protected, and catered mainly to the domestic market. From the 1990s on, the industry has to compete in order to survive.
The Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Related Industries Association (AMD) said in 2007 that the local defence market is small and has many sub-scale capabilities because of industry fragmentation. Also, Research and Development spending has declined. In February, Johan Steyn, MD of BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa, said that the local defence industry has been ‘too dependent on South Africa’s defence acquisition, disposals, and research and development agency Armscor and local customers to provide funds and retain professional skills in the past’, and that ‘the industry must now focus on securing business abroad.’
The defence industry should begin to stabilise, as initial procurement packages and follow-on maintenance bring work to the sector. However, the number of South African defence companies will most likely continue to decline, while overall export figures rise, as attempts to break into the international market in order to survive will inevitably have mixed results. Successful companies will probably be those finding a (high-technology) niche market with which to attract customers.
The significant players remain Denel, the former manufacturing divisions of Armscor, and the subsidiary of BAE Systems, Land Systems South Africa. Others are Thales Defence Systems (TDS),, Saab Grintek Defence & Technologies, Reutech, and the civil and military aviation industry specialist, Aerosud.
The highly successful hosting of the FIFA World Cup in July boosted South Africans’ pride and morale, and acted as a powerful unifying force, cutting across deep-seated racial divides in a similar fashion to the famous 1995 Rugby World Cup, which was the first major sporting event to take place in South Africa after the end of Apartheid. However, despite the euphoria after the World Cup, South Africa’s key political challenges remain – high levels of industrial unrest involving powerful trade unions, the inequalities stemming from the Apartheid era, poverty, joblessness, political unrest in neighbouring Zimbabwe, and the high prevalence of HIV/AIDS.
South Africa’s economy continues its recovery from the 2009 recession, having grown by 1.1% quarteron- quarter in Q110. We expect the economy to expand by 3.0% in 2010 and 4.1% in 2011. Growth will be driven by a recovering export sector as well as continued accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. For 2010, the economic benefits to be gained from the successful staging of the football World Cup are counterbalanced by the effects of recent strikes in the transport sector, weakness in the consumer sector, a small contraction in private investment and a rebound in imports. Looking beyond 2010, we see annual economic expansion accelerating to average 4.4% over 2011-2014, thanks to a stronger consumer sector and the opportunity to leverage off rapid growth in emerging markets through the export sector.

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Browse the complete Report on - Turkey Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
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Turkey's role as a regional power is shifting as the country continues to see an evolution in it foreign policy.. This seems to have been prompted by increasingly assertive positions on a variety of issues (e.g. standing up to Israel over the Gaza blockade, and vetoing new UN sanctions on Iran) adopted by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been steering Turkey away from its traditional pro-Western alignment in favour of closer ties with Russia, the Middle East, and other emerging economies.
The announcement by Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Syria that they will form an economic council to establish a free trade zone is also expected to boost influence. The free trade zone is aimed at increasing competitiveness, supporting scientific research and building a strategic partnership to strengthen trade exchange between the four countries. While this will provide benefits in the form of diversified foreign trade and investment, it will also elevate political uncertainty and potentially accentuate domestic social divisions.
In a military context, Turkey is expected to continue in its position as one of the world’s largest arms importers. Within NATO, the country currently has the second-largest armed forces. However a potentially weakening economy and changing risk profile may impact budgets moving forward. Domestic frictions present the most immediate security risk for the country. Tensions remain between religious groups, such as the ruling AK Party, and secularist institutions - such as the military and the judiciary. However, it is very unlikely that this will translate into serious threats such as large scale policy reversal or a military coup as witnessed in 1980s or 1990s.
At present, leading indicators point towards strong performance for the Turkish economy in H210. As a result , we have revised up our 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 4.7% previously. Though external demand is still expected to begin to slow this year, we note that a vibrant domestic consumer segment provides a favourable backdrop for the economy to remain a regional outperformer.
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Browse the complete Report on:  Syria Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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Syria faces a myriad of problems, both internally and externally, which severely impede development of the defence sector. The widespread drought, which is in its third year, has forced large numbers of people to leave their homes - resulting in a significant international refugee problem. While the Assad regime still retains a tight grip on control, the inflationary pressure resulting from the drought is fuelling a simmering wave of discontent.

At the political level, Syria has nonetheless seen significant gains in recent months with international support for stronger ties. The announcement in July that Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Syria would form an economic council to establish a free trade zone adds credence to the country's international status. The free trade zone is aimed at increasing competitiveness, supporting scientific research and building a strategic partnership to strengthen trade exchange between the four countries. .Russia also recently announced plans to invest in a substantial upgrade to its Mediterranean naval base near the Syrian port of Tartus.

The economic picture remains clouded by the ongoing drought however economic reforms promise potential of large investment inflows going forward. Relations with the West remain a key influencer on economic growth rates. Recent events, such as the accusation that Syria was supplying SCUD missiles to Hizbollah, continue to dampen potential development and thwart US-Syrian relations.

The pace of economic reform appears to have picked up over the past year, probably in response to adverse global and domestic conditions. As with neighbouring Lebanon, Syria has shrugged off the effects of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown, and recorded an estimated 5.9% real GDP growth in 2009. We see a slowdown in 2010, mainly due to base effects and the lagged effect of the drought on consumption. However, foreign investment continues apace, and financing conditions are improving. We see above average growth rates over the coming five years (4.7% between 2010 and 2014, compared with a global average of 3.5%, and a MENA average of 3.8%). The key risk to our outlook is lack of political focus, at present. However, despite some cabinet reshuffles, we believe that the government's commitment to liberalisation remains strong.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
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 Contact:
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