Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Insurance Report Q3 2010
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‘Resilient’ is a word that has appeared frequently in corporate reports published by South African insurers, whether they operate mainly in the non-life or life segments. The economic slowdown has contributed to downwards pricing pressure in many lines within the non-life segment, while in the life segment a lack of financial security has inhibited customers from committing to long-term savings products. Nevertheless, published results indicate that 2009 was far from disastrous for South Africa’s insurers.
Although none mention it, it is possible that the structure of the market has helped participants to maintain prices and margins. Both the life and non-life segments continue to be dominated by companies from South Africa’s large domestic financial services groups. In the life segment the largest players are Old Mutual (among much else, the owner of Nedbank) and Sanlam. In the non-life segment Mutual & Federal, Santam and the local operations of Zurich account for nearly 40% of total premiums. Absa has non-life and life subsidiaries. FirstRand Group is represented by Momentum Group (life insurance) and OUTsurance (non-life). Standard Bank owns Liberty Group, a major life player. Nevertheless, there are several substantial independent companies, including Discovery, which focuses on health insurance, Metropolitan and Hollard, a private company expanding into Australia and elsewhere. A key development in the life segment has been the announcement – at the end of March 2010 – of the proposed merger of Metropolitan with Momentum. Metropolitan will make an all-share purchase of Momentum. FirstRand will then distribute its shares in Metropolitan/Momentum to its own shareholders, who will dominate the share register of the combined company. The deal will create a new and large listed life insurer out of two broadly complementary businesses, with an embedded value of around ZAR30bn. Metropolitan has traditionally focused on the low-to-middle income segment of the retail market, while Momentum has concentrated its activities in the upper-income segment. This transaction, which should ‘unlock’ the value of the investment in Momentum held by FirstRand’s shareholders and give them a controlling interest in a stronger business, is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010.
The responses to a challenging year vary. However, in general, the impact of the downturn on profits was softened by at least one of: lower claims; lower administrative costs; corporate restructurings to emphasise more profitable lines and businesses; restructurings to reduce volatility of earnings; growth in healthcare products (thanks in part to the Government Employees Medical Scheme, or GEMS); foreign expansion (usually into embryonic markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa, but also in Australia’s nonlife segment) and, perhaps most importantly, higher investment earnings.
Of the insurers that emphasise niche businesses, it is possible that the one affected least by the downturn was Guardrisk, an element of Alexander Forbes (a broker of short-term insurance and provider of various risk management solutions). Guardrisk is one of the world’s leading providers of captive cell solutions to its clients. Guardrisk grew by virtually all measures in the year to the end of March 2009, as its customers sought the advantages of underwriting their own risks through captives.
A theme that runs through virtually all corporate reports is that the South African insurers’ levels of capital are well in excess of statutory requirements. Whether by retaining earnings within their businesses or by tapping into funds from shareholders or global capital markets in the good times prior to 2007, South African insurers ensured that their balance sheets were in good shape before the slowdown. At the time of writing, in June2010, we were able to ensure this report included actual data for 2008. We have generally been able to use data published in 2009 to adjust our figures for the year as a whole. We expect total premiums for 2009 of ZAR239,423mn. This includes non-life premiums of ZAR58,446mn and life premiums of ZAR180,977mn. In 2014 the corresponding figures are forecast to be ZAR322,072mn, ZAR110,361mn and ZAR211,711mn respectively. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we expect non-life penetration to rise from 2.44% in 2009 to 3.45% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$440 to US$532 per capita. BMI’s insurance industry Business Environment Rating for South Africa is 66.5 out of 100.
Issues To Watch
Overseas Expansion
Although a number of niches are unquestionably growing rapidly, the South African insurance sector as a whole is fairly mature, particularly in relation to GDP per capita. The structure of the industry is such that players cannot look to expand by way of mega-mergers. An obvious solution for the South African insurers is to draw on their strong balance sheets in order to expand outside the country.
Claims Costs
The South African Insurance Association (SAIA), the trade association for the non-life insurers, has emphasised the need to reduce the number of deaths on the road. Further initiatives by the industry to lower the incidence of accidents could be beneficial.
Lapses And Surrenders
Figures from the Association for Savings and Investment South Africa (ASISA), the trade association for life insurers and investment managers, show that lapses of life insurance policies fell from ZAR38bn in 2008 to ZAR32bn in 2009, a little over the level of 2007. This is another sign of the overall resilience of the industry in 2009, although lapses and surrenders in 2008 and 2007 may have been inflated by one-off value enhancements. Continuing slippage in the level of lapses and surrenders of life policies would be a positive sign.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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The South African public sector does not have the funds it needs to invest in the long-term development of the country's freight transport infrastructure. In mid-2010 there were early signs of a new approach to the problem. In June Transnet Freight Rail announced plans to open up all 7,300km of its branch lines, by offering private concessions, which would operate the lines over a fixed long-term period. The move is geared towards attracting investment to the often underinvested in and frequently under-used branch line sector; while also freeing up much-needed funds for the state-controlled logistics company in particular, allowing it to focus efforts on its ambitious five-year capital expenditure (capex) plan. A decline in volumes has made it difficult for Transnet to maintain the necessary level of investment in South Africa's branch line sector, which accounts for 35% of the country's entire 20,953km rail network, of which only 3,928km are currently operational. Given this poor state of repair and with an ZAR80.5bn (US$10.4bn) capex spending programme to execute over the next five years, which Transnet is struggling to fund, BMI is not surprised that the company is seeking to open up this neglected area to private investment, as it concentrates on mainstream freight services. However, while BMI views Transnet's decision to privatise this part of its network as a positive one for the company, it remains unclear how much interest is likely to be generated among private investors. For instance, much of the track in question was built over 100 years ago and subsequently requires a great deal of investment; while other stretches were closed altogether as they were no longer commercially viable.
The operating environment was broadly favourable to the local freight transport sector in mid-2010. The country remained Sub-Saharan Africa's strongest and most stable democracy and its role hosting the World Cup football championship was bringing in economic benefits and raising its profile in the eyes of international investors. BMI has revised our 2010 GDP growth forecast upwards to 3.0% (from 2.6%) previously. On the medium term to 2014 we see annual growth averaging 4.1%. While the recovery is in progress, our analysts nevertheless warn it is a rather tepid affair, because the consumer sector remains under pressure, private investment has been weak, and there are concerns over continuing problems with electric power supply.
Total tonnage handled by South Africa's main ports will recover in 2010 after the 2009 slump. At the Port of Cape Town (POCT) we see volume gaining 3.5%, after a 4.6% slump in 2009. Our medium-term prediction is for only moderate growth, with an annual average of 3.6%, trailing behind the rate of GDP expansion in the country. At the Port of Durban (POD) both the recovery and the medium-term outlook are more muted. We see volume there gaining 2.4% in 2010, after a 9.6% fall in 2009. The medium-term outlook at Durban is for annual volume growth of a very modest 1.9%. Box traffic growth will remain modest at Cape Town, where there are capacity constraints, but will be stronger at Durban. In real terms, we see exports gaining 11.1% in 2010, in contrast to a 19.5% fall in 2009. Imports should grow at a lower 6.0% (after slumping by 17.4% in 2009). Over the next five years we expect overall trade (imports + exports) to grow by an annual average of 7.3%. Exports will lead the way with 8.4% annual average growth, while imports will expand by 6.4% per annum.
The risks to our South Africa freight forecasts are on the downside. Perhaps the most immediate risk is of a post-World Cup resumption of strike action in the ports sector, or by railway workers responsible for freight deliveries to the ports. This could have a potentially serious effect on the flow of the country's exports. A second-line risk concerns the wider political scene: disagreements within the ruling ANC or allegations of corruption in the administration could have a negative impact on investor confidence.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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The South African public sector does not have the funds it needs to invest in the long-term development of the country's freight transport infrastructure. In mid-2010 there were early signs of a new approach to the problem. In June Transnet Freight Rail announced plans to open up all 7,300km of its branch lines, by offering private concessions, which would operate the lines over a fixed long-term period. The move is geared towards attracting investment to the often underinvested in and frequently under-used branch line sector; while also freeing up much-needed funds for the state-controlled logistics company in particular, allowing it to focus efforts on its ambitious five-year capital expenditure (capex) plan. A decline in volumes has made it difficult for Transnet to maintain the necessary level of investment in South Africa's branch line sector, which accounts for 35% of the country's entire 20,953km rail network, of which only 3,928km are currently operational. Given this poor state of repair and with an ZAR80.5bn (US$10.4bn) capex spending programme to execute over the next five years, which Transnet is struggling to fund, BMI is not surprised that the company is seeking to open up this neglected area to private investment, as it concentrates on mainstream freight services. However, while BMI views Transnet's decision to privatise this part of its network as a positive one for the company, it remains unclear how much interest is likely to be generated among private investors. For instance, much of the track in question was built over 100 years ago and subsequently requires a great deal of investment; while other stretches were closed altogether as they were no longer commercially viable.
The operating environment was broadly favourable to the local freight transport sector in mid-2010. The country remained Sub-Saharan Africa's strongest and most stable democracy and its role hosting the World Cup football championship was bringing in economic benefits and raising its profile in the eyes of international investors. BMI has revised our 2010 GDP growth forecast upwards to 3.0% (from 2.6%) previously. On the medium term to 2014 we see annual growth averaging 4.1%. While the recovery is in progress, our analysts nevertheless warn it is a rather tepid affair, because the consumer sector remains under pressure, private investment has been weak, and there are concerns over continuing problems with electric power supply.
Total tonnage handled by South Africa's main ports will recover in 2010 after the 2009 slump. At the Port of Cape Town (POCT) we see volume gaining 3.5%, after a 4.6% slump in 2009. Our medium-term prediction is for only moderate growth, with an annual average of 3.6%, trailing behind the rate of GDP expansion in the country. At the Port of Durban (POD) both the recovery and the medium-term outlook are more muted. We see volume there gaining 2.4% in 2010, after a 9.6% fall in 2009. The medium-term outlook at Durban is for annual volume growth of a very modest 1.9%. Box traffic growth will remain modest at Cape Town, where there are capacity constraints, but will be stronger at Durban. In real terms, we see exports gaining 11.1% in 2010, in contrast to a 19.5% fall in 2009. Imports should grow at a lower 6.0% (after slumping by 17.4% in 2009). Over the next five years we expect overall trade (imports + exports) to grow by an annual average of 7.3%. Exports will lead the way with 8.4% annual average growth, while imports will expand by 6.4% per annum.
The risks to our South Africa freight forecasts are on the downside. Perhaps the most immediate risk is of a post-World Cup resumption of strike action in the ports sector, or by railway workers responsible for freight deliveries to the ports. This could have a potentially serious effect on the flow of the country's exports. A second-line risk concerns the wider political scene: disagreements within the ruling ANC or allegations of corruption in the administration could have a negative impact on investor confidence.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: Our newly-revised forecasts incorporate new government data for the production and consumption of grains and beef. Over the next five years, particularly strong production growth is envisaged for poultry, beef, sugar, corn and sorghum; sugar and sorghum stand to benefit from new initiatives aimed at developing renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, disease and the strong rand continue to pose risks to our poultry and beef outlooks, particularly relating to exports. Consumption across all of South Africa's major agricultural sectors is expected to remain positive over our five-year forecast period. Consumption growth will be especially strong in the case of rice, poultry and beef, with rising incomes and population growth being two main factors fuelling growth.

Key Forecasts 

Corn is South Africa's most widely produced and consumed grain. Production and consumption are both expected to be strong over the forecast period, hovering between 16% and 18%; South African white corn continues to be popular as an exported good.

Poultry production and consumption growth will both increase by 32% and 27% respectively to 2014; growth will be fuelled by demand stemming from higher incomes and by an increasing prevalence of fast food outlets.

Beef production and consumption growth will also remain strong during our forecast period, increasing by 20% and 19% respectively to 2014; growth will be demand-driven, reflecting rising GDP per capita and the move by larger numbers of consumers to integrate red meat into their diets.

Rice consumption growth of almost 29% to 2014. Rising incomes will lead people to choose rice over traditional, more labour-intensive carbohydrate sources. African produced 'Nerica' rice could also grow in popularity.

2010 Real GDP Growth: 3.0% (up from -1.8% in 2009; predicted to average 3.1% from now until 2014).

Consumer Price Inflation: 4.6% year-on-year in May 2010 (down from an average of 7.1% in 2009). Key Views

South Africa will remain a world leading corn exporter. Favourable weather conditions and steady rains are expected to result in another bumper harvest in 2009/10, with an estimated 13.32mn tonnes of production. An improved macroeconomic outlook, together with the development of new maize varieties should ensure that production remains robust over the next few years. New initiatives that could also provide the industry with a major boost include the introduction of so-called 'value-chain financing'.

South African wheat farmers will potentially benefit from new moves to protect the price of their produce from cheaper imports. In addition to poor harvest conditions in 2009/10, declining profitability in the face of cheaper imported wheat products has provided farmers with a disincentive to produce. In May 2010, South Africa's International Trade Administration Commission reportedly made an administrative change which will effectively increase import duties on wheat. The move has potential to help counteract the recent decline in wheat production. Meanwhile, rising local wheat prices owing to global shortages are likely to result in an increase in the amount of hectares of wheat planted in 2010/11.

The production of crops such as sugar cane and sorghum has potential to benefit from the government strategy to expand into renewable energy and the production of ethanol. The Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa, unveiled in December 2007, envisages a target of 2% biofuels content in national liquid fuel supply by 2013. The use of biofuels in domestic cars could become a strong growth driver for the production of sugar. The relatively young population, together with rising incomes mean that the number of cars on South African roads is expected to double in the five years to 2014. The production of biofuels is seen as a major lucrative prospect for the sugar sector.
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Original Source : – South Africa Agribusiness Market
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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q4 2010

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South Africa’s petrochemicals industry is recovering at an uneven pace, with the expected slowdown in the construction sector set to reduce demand growth for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), while a resurgent car industry will boost sales of polypropylene (PP), according to BMI’s latest report.
GDP growth of around 3.0% in 2010 should provide some more optimism to the petrochemicals sector. Weakness persists in the consumer sector, but we believe that the worst is over. Over the short term, South African petrochemicals production will be more reliant on external demand, particularly from the rest of Africa, and price rises for growth in both volume and margins. This will be somewhat undermined by a surge in capacities in the Middle East and Asia coupled with high oil prices, which are fuelling growth in naphtha feedstock costs.
Construction is likely to remain weak in export markets, thereby dragging down PVC. The domestic market stimulus from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, which led to the construction of stadiums and hotels as well as investment into the country’s transport network, has also abated. As we expect construction activity to die down following the World Cup, we believe that construction industry growth will even out at 3-4% per year until the end of our forecast period. This compares with with average growth of 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2005 and 2008. In the automotive sector, a major end-user of South African petrochemicals, an improvement in domestic demand, coupled with growth in exports, should also feed through to production, although carmakers have previously voiced concern regarding the competitiveness of the local industry as raw material prices and shipping costs rise. There has been no shortage of investment, however, despite concerns raised, with Ford and Volkswagen ramping up their South African production and plant capacity over the medium term. BMI expects such longer-term projects to result in total industry output growth of 40% by 2014, which should raise demand for engineering plastics, particularly in the PP segment.
Capacities are not expected to rise significantly or at a rate that will challenge competitors in the Middle East and Asia. By 2010, South African petrochemical capacities will include 650,000tpa ethylene, 330,000tpa propylene, 560,000tpa PE, 60,000tpa PTC, 200,000tpa VCC/PVC, 680,000tpa PP and 145,000tpa methanol. Sasol’s construction of an ethylene purification unit at its Sasol Polymers plant is et to come onstream by mid-2013. The company hopes it will raise production by around 48,000tpa by 2015 and supply PE production facilities, thereby reducing the import dependency of South African plastics converters. There are no further plans for significant expansion or new plants over the next five years, according to BMI research.
In BMI’s Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment matrix, South Africa comes seventh with 53.1 points, 2.1 points behind Israel and 3.4 points ahead of Egypt. The South African petrochemical industry is the largest in Africa, although relatively small by international standards. It contributes about 5% of GDP and accounts for 25% of manufacturing sales. The industry is reshaping itself, striving to bring plant capacities closer to world production levels, exploiting niche markets, acquiring foreign assets and promoting foreign partnerships, although it will also face challenges from new capacities in the Middle East and Asia. South Africa has the second largest refining sector in Africa after Egypt, with a total refining/liquid fuels capacity of 695,000b/d. It controls a significant portion of the regional market for refined products.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

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The South African arms industry has yet to recover from the decline brought on by the momentous events in the 1990s, including the end of Apartheid. In 1993, there were 122 firms gaining more than half their revenue from defence; in 2007, there were 49 suppliers in the industry. Before the 1990s, the industry had been heavily protected, and catered mainly to the domestic market. From the 1990s on, the industry has to compete in order to survive.
The Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Related Industries Association (AMD) said in 2007 that the local defence market is small and has many sub-scale capabilities because of industry fragmentation. Also, Research and Development spending has declined. In February, Johan Steyn, MD of BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa, said that the local defence industry has been ‘too dependent on South Africa’s defence acquisition, disposals, and research and development agency Armscor and local customers to provide funds and retain professional skills in the past’, and that ‘the industry must now focus on securing business abroad.’
The defence industry should begin to stabilise, as initial procurement packages and follow-on maintenance bring work to the sector. However, the number of South African defence companies will most likely continue to decline, while overall export figures rise, as attempts to break into the international market in order to survive will inevitably have mixed results. Successful companies will probably be those finding a (high-technology) niche market with which to attract customers.
The significant players remain Denel, the former manufacturing divisions of Armscor, and the subsidiary of BAE Systems, Land Systems South Africa. Others are Thales Defence Systems (TDS),, Saab Grintek Defence & Technologies, Reutech, and the civil and military aviation industry specialist, Aerosud.
The highly successful hosting of the FIFA World Cup in July boosted South Africans’ pride and morale, and acted as a powerful unifying force, cutting across deep-seated racial divides in a similar fashion to the famous 1995 Rugby World Cup, which was the first major sporting event to take place in South Africa after the end of Apartheid. However, despite the euphoria after the World Cup, South Africa’s key political challenges remain – high levels of industrial unrest involving powerful trade unions, the inequalities stemming from the Apartheid era, poverty, joblessness, political unrest in neighbouring Zimbabwe, and the high prevalence of HIV/AIDS.
South Africa’s economy continues its recovery from the 2009 recession, having grown by 1.1% quarteron- quarter in Q110. We expect the economy to expand by 3.0% in 2010 and 4.1% in 2011. Growth will be driven by a recovering export sector as well as continued accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. For 2010, the economic benefits to be gained from the successful staging of the football World Cup are counterbalanced by the effects of recent strikes in the transport sector, weakness in the consumer sector, a small contraction in private investment and a rebound in imports. Looking beyond 2010, we see annual economic expansion accelerating to average 4.4% over 2011-2014, thanks to a stronger consumer sector and the opportunity to leverage off rapid growth in emerging markets through the export sector.

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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Consumer Electonics Report Q4 2010

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South Africa’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, mobile handsets and video, audio and gaming products, is projected at US$6.8bn in 2010. This expected to increase to US$9.8bn by 2014, driven by demographics, product innovation, rising incomes, and rising computer penetration.
Consumer electronics sales were on an upwards curve in H110 boosted by spending associated with the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, as well as lower interest rates and improved credit availability. BMI forecasts that consumer electronics spending growth will remain in the high single digits in 2010. The consumer recovery could prove fragile however, with higher household indebtedness and rising unemployment acting as restraints on growth.


Computers

Computer hardware accounted for about 61% of South African consumer electronics spending in 2009. BMI projects South African domestic market computer hardware sales of US$4.1bn in 2010, up from US$3.7bn in 2009. Computer hardware’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2010-2014 is forecast at about 10% as a result of rising computer penetration, falling prices and vendor and retailer promotions.


AV

Audio/video (AV) devices accounted for about 18% of South Africa’s consumer electronics spending in 2009. South Africa’s domestic AV device market is projected at US$1.20bn in 2010. This market is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% between 2010 and 2014, to a value of US$1.80bn, driven by new technologies and digital TV transition, which is due to be complete by 2015. Sales of LCD and Plasma TV sets were reported by retailers to be up by as much as 50% ahead of the start of the FIFA World Cup tournament in June 2010, compared with the same period of 2009.
Mobile Handsets
Mobile handset sales accounted for 22% of South Africa’s consumer electronics spending in 2009. South African handset sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% to US$1.8bn by 2014, when mobile subscriber penetration is expected to reach 106%. The replacement market will be increasingly important and demand for 3G handsets has exceeded expectations, while lower prices have boosted sales of smartphones.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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The FIFA World Cup 2010 is being held in South Africa, and is the first time that Africa as a continent are hosting the tournament. 32 teams have qualified for the finals from qualifications that lasted for more than a year.

The top 3 tournament favorites are Spain, Brazil and England.

The official ball of the tournament has been nicknamed - Jalubani. It is manufactured by Adidas.

The mascot of this tournament is Zakumi.

The final will be played at the Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg