Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Commercial Banking Report Q3 2010
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to the Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to the Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investors Service’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

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Original Source : Commercial Banking Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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At a time of fiscal pressure, Turkey's transport infrastructure is being gradually opened up to private sector investment. At the end of April, the route of the third Bosporus Bridge was finally announced by Turkey's government. BMI notes that this not only solved the issue of the location of the bridge itself, but also set in motion the much anticipated privatisation of a number of highways and the two Bosporus bridges; a privatisation that was predicated upon the existence of concrete plans for the route of the third bridge. The government had been procrastinating over announcing the route, fuelling land speculation on possible locations in several coastal areas of Istanbul. The final route, announced by the country's transport minister, Binali Yildirim, will be near the northern tip of the Bosporus Straits, between Garipce in the European side of the city and Poyraz in the Asian side. The bridge will extend for 1.3km and will be part of the Northern Marmara Highway that will run from Istanbul to Kocaeli and Sakarya. It will be built under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) model, with the tender to take place before the end of 2010. It is unclear, thus far, from the reports in the Turkish press, if the entire Northern Marmara Highway, including the bridge, will be tendered out, or if they will be separate contracts. The estimated cost for the bridge is US$6bn and construction is expected to take between four and five years to complete.
Half way through 2010, the 'macro' operating environment looks quite strongly favourable for the Turkish freight transport sector. The government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is democratic and stable. Most importantly the economy is experiencing a strong and broadly based recovery, leading BMI to characterise it as among the best-positioned emerging markets over the long term. We believe that the strength of the internal market, diversified industrial sectors, a healthy capital market, a pro-reform government and high long-term leverage potential all suggest Turkey will outperform its European emerging market peers. After contracting by nearly 5% in 2009, we expect GDP growth of 4.9% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011 (when the possibility of a global 'double-dip' slowdown will be an important factor). On the medium term to 2014, annual GDP growth will average a healthy 5.2%. Politically, the government's cooling relations with Israel may be part of a pattern where Ankara refocuses relations on Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East, diversifying its trade and therefore also its shipping and port links.
We expect airfreight volume to recover healthily in 2010 with 9.1% growth to 1.45mn tonnes, almost but not quite restoring the 10.0% drop experienced in recession-dominated 2009. Supported by strong fundamentals, we see average annual airfreight volume growth of 7.6%, well ahead of GDP, in the period running up to 2014. The only data series available for road transport is 'road freight carried' (volume x distance). We estimate that this indicator fell by 5.3% in 2009 and will recover by 3.6% in 2010. The trucking sector will benefit from general growth across the Turkish economy, but BMI sees it expanding at an annual average of 3.3% over our forecast period, which will lag behind GDP. Turkey's rail network is small compared to the country's other freight transport modes. In 2010 we expect railfreight volume to grow by 5%. Looking forward, railfreight will grow by 4.7% per year.
The downturn in European trade in 2009 had a massive impact on business at the Port of Ambarli (POA). General and liquid bulk cargoes fell by 57.1%. The recovery is now under way, but it will take four years before pre-2009 levels of business are restored. In 2010 we expect POA tonnage to grow by 31.1%, followed by 27.4% growth in 2011. The recovery will stretch across our five-year forecast period to 2014, during which average annual tonnage growth will reach 23.1%. The number of boxes handled at Ambarli was also hard hit by 2009's recession, contracting by 44.1%. Here, too, pre-2009 levels will not be achieved again until 2013.
In real terms Turkey's total trade (exports + imports) slumped by 10.3% in 2009, but will recover almost all that lost ground in 2010, with growth of 9.4%. Trade will expand a further 9.0% in 2011, and the average annual rate of growth over the next five years will be a healthy 8.0%. Rising living standards and a growing middle class will play their part in boosting import demand, which will grow by a mediumterm average of 8.3% per annum, ahead of exports at 7.6% per annum. In nominal terms exports will rise 19.3% in 2010 to US$169.9bn, while imports will grow 25.1% to US$187.1bn. Turkey will continue to run a balance of trade deficit for the rest of our medium-term forecast period running to 2014. We see downside risks to out Turkish freight forecast. The first is that, despite the country's domestically driven economic recovery, a harsher-than-expected 'double-dip' slowdown in Europe could have an impact, reducing trade, growth and freight demand in 2011. The second risk is political: although Ankara seems to be seeking a 'controlled' cooling in its relations with Israel, there is a possibility that the process could get somewhat out of hand and have a greater-than-desired impact on bilateral trade.


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Original Source : Turkey Freight Transport Market
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Browse the complete Report on:  Turkey Retail Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s Q410 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by more than 19% by 2014, from TRY293.28bn (US$225.18bn) in 2010 to TRY349.77bn (US$268.56bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$736.9bn in 2010, with 2009’s decline of 4.7% expected to translate into growth of 4.9% in 2010 as the economy begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of 5.2% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from 73.2mn in 2010 to an estimated 76.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 86% to US$18,521 by the end of the forecast period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$6,965 in 2010 to US$12,925 by 2014.
Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 13.5% by the end of 2009. We forecast that this will start to fall in 2010, ending the forecast period at 8.0%. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
Using BMI Food & Drink service data we identify a food and drink retail market share in 2010 of 25.7%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.16bn in 2010 to US$2.11bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 82%. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 68% from US$13.25bn in 2010 to US$22.30bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by more than 52%, from US$7.33bn in 2010 to US$11.14bn by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,153bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,027bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to rise slightly to 83% by 2014. Turkey’s predicted market share of 19.2% in 2010 is expected to fall slightly, to 18.6%, by 2014.


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Original Source : – Turkey Retail Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: The EU green light on Turkish poultry imports and, more recently, a successful Russian presidential visit that resulted in Turkish exporters getting better access to the Russian market show the world is keen to buy Turkey's agricultural produce. Nevertheless, many of the country's agricultural industries remain hampered by government policy. A ban on GM foods has pushed up the price of feed, making it more difficult for Turkish producers to take advantage of willing export markets. For the time being the country remains a powerful but flawed agricultural player.
Poultry production surprised on the upside in 2009, jumping 17.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 1.33mn tonnes. Growing demand from both the home and export markets were key drivers. With the economy set to record a solid recovery in 2010, we are now forecasting a y-o-y gain of 8.2% to reach 1.43mn tonnes in 2010.
We have revised up our wheat forecasts for the 2009/10 season following reports of abundant rains producing favourable levels of soil moisture throughout the country. Although area planted to winter wheat stayed the same, we are forecasting production to rise slightly, up 0.4% y-o-y to reach 20.7mn tonnes.
In 2008/09 corn revenue was not able to meet production costs. This, combined with a boost in government subsidies for cotton and soybean, will produce a fall in area planted to corn in 2009/10. We are forecasting production to fall 8.7% y-o-y to 3.77mn tonnes. 􀂃 The Sugar Board has reduced its quota for 2010/11. We now expect to see a slight fall in production to 2.06mn tonnes that year, a y-o-y drop of 2.53%.
The impact of the new Biosafety Law, which passed on March 18, is as yet unclear. Regulations will need to be put in place to implement the law, which is open to interpretation. According to a biotech regulation already in effect, imports of biotech corn and soy are banned. If the new Biosafety Law results in resumed imports of biotech feed, meat prices will fall again. We are monitoring the situation closely and will have a clearer idea of the impact of the law next quarter.
During a presidential visit in May, Russia and Turkey signed a number of protocols on agriculture, including two aimed at simplifying procedures for Turkish companies looking to export poultry and products to Russia. During the visit the Russian agriculture minister announced that the Turkish poultry import quota would be raised from 57,000 tonnes in 2010 to 150,000 tonnes in 2011 and stated that there were now no legal barriers to Turkish imports. Greater access to the Russian market, while not expected to be a major boon for Turkey, is representative of increased international interest (especially from China and the Middle East) in Turkish poultry and among factors pushing up local production over our forecast period.
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Original Source : – Turkey Agribusiness  Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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Turkey's short-term consumer spending outlook emphatically distinguishes it from the rest of emerging Europe, with trends far detached from a region that for the most part has been systemically negatively affected by the economic turbulence of the past 18 months.

Turkey is expected to be one of Europe’s strongest performing economies over the next decade. Able to call on a dynamic long-term economic outlook (by 2019 its per capita GDP is expected to resemble that of Portugal’s, according to our Europe team), a business friendly regulatory environment and a growing population already in excess of 70mn, Turkey is likely to emerge as one of the world’s highest potential consumer markets over the next decade.

Headline Industry Data 

• 2010 per capita food consumption +6.13%=; forecast to 2014 =+39.76%
• 2010 beer volume sales = +4.36%; forecast to 2014 = +22.06%
• 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +18.06%; forecast to 2014 = +68.41%

Key Company Trends

Discount Retail Outperforming - Discount retail sales continue to perform strongly with the leading players laying down significant expansion plans. In May 2010, the rapidly growing Turkish discount retailer Diasa put forward plans to launch 300 new stores by year-end 2010. One of the much vaunted ‘E7’ emerging markets (along with Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia), we believe a strong case can be made for Turkey’s mass grocery retail industry to be considered emerging Europe’s most promising.

In April 2010, Turkey’s leading discount retailer BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS announced its aim to grow annual sales by 25% in FY10 (12 months to December 31 2010), with growth largely being driven by aggressive organic store expansion. Sometimes called the ‘Turkish Aldi’ due to the similarity of its business model to that of the German discounter, BIM reported above consensus FY09 headline year-onyear (y-o-y) earnings growth of 86% to TRY213mn (US$101.94mn) with annual sales increasing by 25%.
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

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BMI’s outlook for pharmaceutical companies operating in the Emerging Europe region has improved further over the past quarter, as shown by our updated Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix. However, while Turkey’s compound quarterly score has improved somewhat, its regional ranking has actually worsened to sixth (from fourth), overtaken by Russia and Hungary. Globally, Turkey remains 26th of the 83 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI. While a number of major multinationals have indicated that Turkey is of major interest to them as a key emerging market, the recent pricing and reimbursement reforms will continue to weigh on the growth of market values, as will shortcomings in its intellectual property (IP) environment.
In fact, during the most recent European Union (EU)-Turkey Association Council's meeting, the EU backed Turkey's constitutional amendments, a small step on the long road to accession. However, despite some positive moves, the EU stated concerns over many aspects of Turkey's business environment, including the pharmaceutical industry. The EU called for Turkey to establish legal certainty on regulatory data exclusivity, a theme also raised by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s Special 301 report for 2010, which placed Turkey on the Priority Watch List. The EU has also requested that Turkey suspend new requirements on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), as they impose a 'de-facto ban' on imports of certain products, instead suggesting that Turkey develop its capacity in-line with international harmonisation initiatives for GMP.
Turkey’s pharmaceutical market was valued at TRY16.8bn (US$10.83bn) in 2009, making it the 14th largest market globally. Despite a blip in growth expected in 2010, through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in local currency (and of % in US dollar terms), with the market reaching TRY24.25bn (US$20.38bn) at consumer prices. While the development of the generics segment will be stimulated by cost-containment pressures, international standards and IP protection requirements should also work in favour of patented drugs, which are expected to largely retain their share of the total market by value at the same level as in 2009.
In the meantime, the economic rebound expected for Turkey should also stimulate the development of the pharmaceutical market – in both volume and value terms – once the effects of the 2009 pricing and reimbursement changes are fully digested. We stand by our view that Turkey is among the best positioned emerging markets over the long run. Turkey's domestically-oriented economic structure, diversified industrial sectors, healthy local capital market, pro-reform government and greater leverage potential all suggest that the economy is set to outperform its core emerging European peers, which are some of the other factors providing a solid base for investment in the country’s pharmaceutical market.

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Browse the complete Report on - Turkey Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
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Turkey's role as a regional power is shifting as the country continues to see an evolution in it foreign policy.. This seems to have been prompted by increasingly assertive positions on a variety of issues (e.g. standing up to Israel over the Gaza blockade, and vetoing new UN sanctions on Iran) adopted by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been steering Turkey away from its traditional pro-Western alignment in favour of closer ties with Russia, the Middle East, and other emerging economies.
The announcement by Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Syria that they will form an economic council to establish a free trade zone is also expected to boost influence. The free trade zone is aimed at increasing competitiveness, supporting scientific research and building a strategic partnership to strengthen trade exchange between the four countries. While this will provide benefits in the form of diversified foreign trade and investment, it will also elevate political uncertainty and potentially accentuate domestic social divisions.
In a military context, Turkey is expected to continue in its position as one of the world’s largest arms importers. Within NATO, the country currently has the second-largest armed forces. However a potentially weakening economy and changing risk profile may impact budgets moving forward. Domestic frictions present the most immediate security risk for the country. Tensions remain between religious groups, such as the ruling AK Party, and secularist institutions - such as the military and the judiciary. However, it is very unlikely that this will translate into serious threats such as large scale policy reversal or a military coup as witnessed in 1980s or 1990s.
At present, leading indicators point towards strong performance for the Turkish economy in H210. As a result , we have revised up our 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 4.7% previously. Though external demand is still expected to begin to slow this year, we note that a vibrant domestic consumer segment provides a favourable backdrop for the economy to remain a regional outperformer.
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