Browse the complete Report on: Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Slovakia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.39% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing no significant contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Slovakia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.82%, while its share of production was negligible. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast be 0.86%. We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Slovak real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 4.9% in 2009, followed by forecast 2.7% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.0% in 2010-2014. Beyond the likely weakness of 2009/10, oil consumption is forecast to rise rapidly, averaging around 4% per annum. There is scope for oil consumption to reach 93,000b/d by 2014. This volume will be imported, largely from Russia. Natural gas demand may also rise at a more rapid rate if the power industry builds new gas-fired plants, although the residential gas market is close to saturation. Our forecast is for Slovakia to be consuming 6.7bcm of gas by 2014, virtually all of which will be imported.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovak oil consumption of 29.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 81,000b/d to 107,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to up from an estimated 5.5bcm to 8.2bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Slovakia holds 13th place behind Croatia and Turkmenistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked 13th ahead of Ukraine in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Licensing, privatisation and country risk factors help its score, although these are offset by hydrocarbons weakness. Over the medium term, Slovakia is at some risk from Ukraine below. Slovakia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings. Only in oil demand growth potential does the country score particularly well, and progress further up the rankings from 13th place seems unlikely over the medium term. Country risk factors are generally favourable and there is an established competitive landscape. Uzbekistan is just one point below it in the regional rankings, and there is some longer-term potential for the country to mount a challenge for Slovakia’s 13th place.

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Browse the complete Report on: Slovakia Mining Report 2010
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Slovakia’s mining sector was worth US$503mn in 2009, contributing only 0.52% of GDP, down from US$552mn and 0.59% in 2008, representing a significant shrinkage of 10.57%, according to BMI figures. The industry had clocked up 18.35% real growth in 2008. Demand for mining products fell in Europe due to the global recession, which had a serious impact both on the domestic economy and those of major export partners. Sector employment fell significantly, by 17.54% to 11,710, following a drop of 13.41% in 2008.
Mining remains a relatively minor concern in Slovakia and it is certainly not a major regional mining centre like Ukraine and Poland. There is not a great deal of scope for scalability and cost advantages have been eroded somewhat by the country’s rising incomes and the effects of EU accession. Nonetheless, for incumbents such as EMED and Slovaco, there will be continuing opportunities. EMED expects that its concessions in Slovakia has ‘potential to add major value’, according to Mining Journal.
A potential regulatory setback for the sector occurred in March 2009, with changes to Slovakia’s mining laws, as reported by Uranium News. The country’s parliament agreed to amendments that will give local communities and municipal and regional authorities more power to control geological research and the mining of uranium. The changes came after a number of large public petitions against uranium mining in the country.
While environmental organisation Greenpeace noted that the new law did not ban uranium mining outright, it said that ‘significant powers’ had been granted to the local and regional authorities in the process of gaining mining permits, and that all 41 municipal governments in areas where uranium mining has been proposed have declared their opposition to the mining. It concluded that ‘there’s an excellent chance that Slovakia’s uranium will never see the light of day’. After several years in which the regulatory environment has improved for private sector and foreign investors in the sector, the changes could strike a significant blow.
Uranium mining is a relatively fledging concern in Slovakia, with explorations ongoing. Slovakia seems potentially well-placed to benefit from rising demand for uranium, particularly from its EU partners, which are increasingly looking to diversify their supply away from Russia. Worldwide demand for the mineral is expected to increase 33% between 2010 and 2020, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Production from mines currently only covers 70% of power station demand, the remainder coming from sources such as ex-military material.
Elsewhere, safety issues have also been raised, particularly after an explosion at a coal mine in August 2009 which killed 20 workers, as reported by UPI. With substantial caveats, sector players are likely to be more confident of the outlook than was the case in 2009. A June report from Bloomberg suggested that Slovak assets could rise as political parties committed to pro-investment reforms and cutting the budget deficit look to take power in the aftermath of the country’s election.
But overall, BMI maintains its expectations of a low-growth outlook for the future. We forecast that the industry will reach a value of US$589mn by 2014 with annual growth averaging just 1.17%. Sector employment will continue to decline, to 7,270 by the end of the forecast period. Pre-crisis value levels may not be achieved until 2013. For 2010, we expect growth of 0.54% with the sector reaching a value of US$511mn.
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Original Source : Slovakia Mining Market
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