Browse the complete Report on: Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.55%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.71%.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Bulgarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, followed by a forecast decline of 2.6% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.3% in 2010-2014. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 127,000b/d by 2014. Imports can be expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by 2014, demand is heading for 5.6bcm, requiring imports of 4.1bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 18.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 116,000b/d in 2010 to 140,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 0.2bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.1bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2010 level of 3.8bcm to 6.0bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bulgaria takes 10th place behind Hungary in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now claims a share of third place with Poland in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table, with Russia and/or Turkey likely to challenge during the next few quarters. Bulgaria now holds last place, below even Uzbekistan, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, and gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.

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Browse the complete Report on: South Korea Mining Report Q3 2010
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As a country that lacks many natural resources, South Korea is heavily dependent on imported raw materials. As a result, the country believes that FTAs and JVs are the most reliable ways to secure future supplies of raw materials and it is this mindset which is the driving force behind two planned FTAs with Australia and Peru, both of which are rich in natural minerals and resources. South Korea’s industrial giants are also branching out in a bid to secure raw material supplies. In Q310, POSCO, the country’s largest steelmaker, purchased a stake of 7.8% in a coal mine in Mozambique in order to secure supplies as the prices of raw materials rise. POSCO also announced a JV with Korean Resources to take a 60% stake in Chinese company Yongxin Rare Earth Metal. This US$8.8mn deal is considered an ideal way to bypass China’s restriction on rare earth mineral exports, which are used in industries such as wind energy.
However, at the time of writing, POSCO is still facing frustration with its planned plant in Orissa, India. With construction being halted for five years due to protests from local land owners, there have been further land disputes in 2010 which has led to another delay. Licences have still not been issued and this has forced POSCO to begin looking for investment opportunities elsewhere in India. The company is currently in negotiations for the construction of a new steel plant in Karnaka.
Despite this, one of South Korea’s biggest success stories in H110 has been its steel industry. Showing clear signs of recovery, the South Korea Iron and Steel Association announced that steel consumption in H110 had increased by 12% y-o-y and risen to 51.4mn tonnes. Meanwhile, steel output increased by 11% y-o-y, reaching 63mn tonnes and back to the pre-downturn levels of 2008. The country’s steel exports are expected to grow by 5% to 21mn tonnes, a substantial improvement on 2009 levels which dropped 3% to 20mn tonnes.
Meanwhile, as environmental concerns become ever more familiar, South Korea is looking to further develop its nuclear power industry and seek out new uranium supplies. A number of companies are searching for global uranium deposits in which to invest. South Korea currently operates 20 nuclear power stations and aims to build eight more by 2016, as well as develop small and medium-sized nuclear power reactors. As a result, a consortium has been arranged which will invest US$81.8mn in technical advances and design. The consortium is headed by state owned Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) and includes 13 local companies, of which POSCO and STX Heavy Industries Co are two.
Mining Forecast
BMI forecasts that while the Korean mining industry has improved in Q310, the rate of growth is stable and there is unlikely to be any unexpected growth spurts in the coming years. We forecast that by the end of 2010, the industry value will have increased to US$2.98bn and will continue to grow until 2014 when we expect the total industry value to reach US$4.26bn.

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Browse the complete Report on: Ukraine Mining Report 2010
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Despite having a difficult year in 2009, our forecast for Ukraine’s mining industry is overall a positive one. At the end of 2009, the mining sector fell by 30.2% in real terms, but H110 saw the start of a recovery and by the end of the year, BMI forecasts that the sector will have increased its real growth to 1% %, taking the industry’s value to US$5.95bn.
In order for the industry to keep improving over the next five years, however, it will need to focus on its coal industry as outdated, inefficient and dangerous mines are having a stagnant effect on much-needed production levels. Ukraine’s coal mining industry has seen some very negative press throughout this year. Accidents resulting in fatalities have forced the government to look at its safety standards and consider extensive redevelopment.
Indeed, the coal industry requires major investment and the government has responded by announcing funding of UAH47.3bn (US$5.98bn) by 2015. The authorities have also revived plans to privatise parts of the industry, which will bring in further capital. Privatisation is controversial in the Ukraine but there is growing acceptance in government circles that increased productivity requires financing and methods from the private sector. In total, the government measures are expected to increase the total coal output in 2015 by 54% from 64mn tonnes in 2009.
This year has also seen improvements in the iron ore sector. Ukraine is listed as being the sixth largest iron ore producer in the world and despite 2009 seeing the lowest production rates of steel since 2000, iron production has improved in H110. The Industrial Policy Ministry announced that iron ore concentrate production had risen to 26.378mn tonnes in May 2010, a 37% increase y-o-y. In March 2010, Ukraine exported 2.522mn tonnes of iron ore, this was an 8% increase y-o-y, but to offset this, Q110 saw the country import 620,600 tonnes of iron ore concentrate; almost double what it did in Q109. BMI forecasts that with the much-needed improvements in the coal sector coupled with continued increased production levels in the iron sector the country’s mining industry will be on target for our predicted total value levels of US$13.63bn by 2014. However, China is expected to reduce its demand for iron this year and this threatens to reduce output levels in the short-term.
Despite being the site of the infamous Chernobyl disaster, Ukraine remains interested in nuclear power and the country has announced plans to construct 22 new nuclear power stations. Indeed, following news that a Russian bank had agreed to lend Ukraine US$2bn, in June 2010 it emerged that the funds will be used to build new nuclear reactors in the country. The news follows an improvement in Russia-Ukraine relations, with energy appearing to be a key area of co-operation.


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Browse the complete Report on: Slovakia Mining Report 2010
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Slovakia’s mining sector was worth US$503mn in 2009, contributing only 0.52% of GDP, down from US$552mn and 0.59% in 2008, representing a significant shrinkage of 10.57%, according to BMI figures. The industry had clocked up 18.35% real growth in 2008. Demand for mining products fell in Europe due to the global recession, which had a serious impact both on the domestic economy and those of major export partners. Sector employment fell significantly, by 17.54% to 11,710, following a drop of 13.41% in 2008.
Mining remains a relatively minor concern in Slovakia and it is certainly not a major regional mining centre like Ukraine and Poland. There is not a great deal of scope for scalability and cost advantages have been eroded somewhat by the country’s rising incomes and the effects of EU accession. Nonetheless, for incumbents such as EMED and Slovaco, there will be continuing opportunities. EMED expects that its concessions in Slovakia has ‘potential to add major value’, according to Mining Journal.
A potential regulatory setback for the sector occurred in March 2009, with changes to Slovakia’s mining laws, as reported by Uranium News. The country’s parliament agreed to amendments that will give local communities and municipal and regional authorities more power to control geological research and the mining of uranium. The changes came after a number of large public petitions against uranium mining in the country.
While environmental organisation Greenpeace noted that the new law did not ban uranium mining outright, it said that ‘significant powers’ had been granted to the local and regional authorities in the process of gaining mining permits, and that all 41 municipal governments in areas where uranium mining has been proposed have declared their opposition to the mining. It concluded that ‘there’s an excellent chance that Slovakia’s uranium will never see the light of day’. After several years in which the regulatory environment has improved for private sector and foreign investors in the sector, the changes could strike a significant blow.
Uranium mining is a relatively fledging concern in Slovakia, with explorations ongoing. Slovakia seems potentially well-placed to benefit from rising demand for uranium, particularly from its EU partners, which are increasingly looking to diversify their supply away from Russia. Worldwide demand for the mineral is expected to increase 33% between 2010 and 2020, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Production from mines currently only covers 70% of power station demand, the remainder coming from sources such as ex-military material.
Elsewhere, safety issues have also been raised, particularly after an explosion at a coal mine in August 2009 which killed 20 workers, as reported by UPI. With substantial caveats, sector players are likely to be more confident of the outlook than was the case in 2009. A June report from Bloomberg suggested that Slovak assets could rise as political parties committed to pro-investment reforms and cutting the budget deficit look to take power in the aftermath of the country’s election.
But overall, BMI maintains its expectations of a low-growth outlook for the future. We forecast that the industry will reach a value of US$589mn by 2014 with annual growth averaging just 1.17%. Sector employment will continue to decline, to 7,270 by the end of the forecast period. Pre-crisis value levels may not be achieved until 2013. For 2010, we expect growth of 0.54% with the sector reaching a value of US$511mn.
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Browse the complete Report on - Brazil Mining Report Q3 2010


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BMI’s outlook for the Brazilian mining sector for the remainder of 2010 and beyond is positive. In uncertain global economic conditions, Brazil’s economy has proved resilient and BMI is forecasting an economic growth rate of 6% for the year. We expect the mining sector to mirror this increase with y-o-y real growth of 7.04% this year and a further 5.42% rise in 2011.
Brazil-based Vale, the world’s largest iron exporter, is one of the mining companies driving overall sector growth. Vale along with other industry giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have forced changes resulting in the end of the 40-year-old benchmark system of pricing iron ore. Despite howls of protest from steelmakers and officials in Europe and China, iron prices will now be set by a formula based on the average price for the previous quarter. As a result, Q210 saw a 90-100% rise in the price of iron with a further 30-35% rise expected this quarter. This boon for producers has come at a time when demand for iron is rising due to increased orders from global steel manufacturers.
Meanwhile, there was further good news for ore producers following the decision of the Chinese government to allow more flexibility in the value of its currency. Brazilian mining companies Vale, MMX Mineracao e Metalicos and Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSN) are all expected to benefit from a forecasted 5% increase in the value of the renminbi. China’s domestic iron ore producers, already struggling to be competitively priced, will further lose out in dollar terms. Brazil’s ore miners stand poised to pick up the slack.
Elsewhere in the sector, gold mining is seeing increased activity because of the rise in demand from investors. As many European countries experience unstable currencies, gold is becoming an attractive alternate investment. Also, Asia has seen an increasing liberalisation of gold markets with significant growth in demand in China and India. As a result, BMI forecasts that Brazil will see an increase in gold investment and exploration projects over the next five years.
While global economies begin to recover, miners across the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the rising cost of mine development. As costs continue to rise, so does the amount of debt major companies are forced to carry. Vale’s net debt (including cash) on December 31 2009 was US$11.8bn. However, the increased development is having a positive effect on employment figures in Brazil. In 2010, BMI forecasts that the mining industry employment levels will increase from 2.56% of the workforce in 2009 to 5.99% in 2010. This is set to remain steady for the next four years.
Overall, BMI forecasts that the value of the mining industry will see a large increase from US$23.95bn in 2009 to US$30.32bn in 2010. This growth is expected to continue through until 2014, when the value will reach an estimated US$46.44bn.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.

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