Browse the complete Report on: Poland Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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The shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland has taken a step closer with a consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) winning the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. BMI believes that the construction of the terminal is set to change the make-up of Poland's maritime sector, which until now has been geared towards containers and dry bulk cargo such as coal.
The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Poland's gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the country's reliance on Russia for its gas. As well seeking diversification of its gas supplies, Poland needs to boost its gas imports as consumption is increasing while production is falling. The country is developing gas-fired power stations that will need to be fuelled, with Radoslaw Dudzinski, CEO of Poland's state-owned Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), estimating an additional 1.5-2.0GW of power could be brought online by 2015. The construction of the terminal is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. The launch date gives the terminal plenty of preparation time before its first shipment of LNG, which is due, according to BMI's oil and gas estimates, in 2014. BMI's forecast for Poland's air freight shows a year on year growth of cargo traffic in 2010. We anticipate Poland's air freight volume recovering by 6.7% y-o-y this year to 55,910 tonnes, after an estimated contraction of 9.89% in 2009.
We expect cargo handled at two of Poland's key ports, the Port of Gdansk and the Port of Gdynia, to grow at a moderate rate this year in general tonnage terms. The Port of Gdansk throughput will increase by 6.6% to 20.11mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession. Volumes grew 6.1% to 18.86mn tonnes last year. This year total volume at the Port of Gdynia will gain 7.2% to 14.21mn tonnes. Last year volumes there dropped by 14.3% to 13.26mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we expect the volumes to recover 3.78% to 216.5mn tonnes this year, after falling an estimated 16.17% in 2009. The pace should accelerate in 2011 with a growth of 5.4%. BMI forecasts higher growth pattern for the country's road freight, which tries to recover from a huge drop in traffic. We predict the 2010 volumes to reach 153.1mn tonnes, a y-o-y increase of 14.23% after an estimated fall of 48.15% in 2009. 2011 will see road freight volumes to grow by 18.46%.

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Browse the complete Report on: Belgium Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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In June 2010, Shanghai International Port (Group) (SIPG) acquired a EUR27.16mn (US$33.2mn) 25% stake in Belgium's Zeebrugge container port that is wholly owned by APM Terminals, a subsidiary of AP Moller Maersk. The purchase follows comments from SIPG chair Lu Haihu that the company will not seek further short-term opportunities for container terminal expansions at the Port of Shanghai. Lu told Seatrade Asia: 'Overall, Shanghai is suffering from an oversupply of box facilities, so we will not be launching any new facilities for the time being.' Zeebrugge, Belgium's second largest container port with a capacity of more than 2mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), is an important gateway for trade and has remained relatively resilient to the difficult global macroeconomic environment, recording positive throughput growth in 2008 and 2009.
The collapse of the five-party coalition government in April 2010 started a new period of potential instability in Belgium, with complex negotiations taking place across the linguistic and ideological dividing lines of Belgian society. At the time of writing, the government has remained in office on a caretaker basis as talks continue. The danger was that during this time economic policy would drift and attention could be distracted from dealing with pressing fiscal problems. The country's deficit is calculated at around 6% of GDP and unemployment is also high at over 8%. BMI forecasts a slow recovery from 2009's recession, when the economy contracted by 3.1%. Our macroeconomic forecasts remain unchanged from our previous quarterly report but the downside risks have edged up. We expect GDP growth of 1.1% in 2010, accelerating gradually to 1.3% in 2011. Across our five-year forecast period to 2014 we expect average annual GDP growth of 1.5%.
We estimate Belgian airfreight volume fell very sharply in 2009, down by 21.9%. In 2010, we continue to project a very weak recovery of just 1.6%. The road freight story is similar. In 2009, the amount of cargo hauled by road contracted by 18.3%. For this year we predict growth of only 0.2% in road freight volumes. We also expect a modest recovery in railfreight in 2010 after a sharp fall in 2009. Volume was down by 14.6% last year and we forecast it to rise by only 0.6% in 2010.
At Belgium's major ports the picture is L-shaped, with a very big drop in cargo handling last year and a modest recovery in 2010. At the country's largest port, Antwerp, we expect volumes to go up by 0.4% this year, after a 16.7% fall in 2009. Container volumes will fare only marginally better. Belgium's foreign trade has not been volatile in recent years, rather the pattern has been for very slow growth in real terms. Total trade grew by 0.4% in 2009 and we forecast it expanding by the same amount in 2010. In fact, for the next five years imports and exports are projected to grow by an average rate of 0.4% per annum.
There are downside risks to our freight transport forecasts for Belgium. The most significant of these is that the negotiations to form a new coalition government drag on for a few more months, postponing urgent fiscal and economic policy decisions. This would almost certainly lower the country's growth prospects, with consequential knock-on effects for freight demand.

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Browse the complete Report on : China Freight Transport Report Q4 2010


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China’s move in June towards increased exchange rate flexibility (code for a degree of yuan appreciation against the US dollar) was in BMI’s view unlikely to have a major impact on freight transport operations. Investors were quick to trade on the news with shares in the country’s three largest airlines, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern rising. But any upward movement in the currency is expected to be gradual at best and we are sticking to our forecast that the value of the yuan will end the year at CNY6,8270/US$. Indeed, the initial enthusiasm of investors surrounding the move appears to have given way to reappraisal as the carriers all saw their shares retrench later.
With up to 80% of Air China’s debt believed to be denominated in US$ or dollar-pegged currency, as are the prices of aircraft, like other Chinese airlines, the company would stand to benefit for a stronger yuan, particularly as this would likely offset the effects of reduced overseas demand for Chinese products as exports become less competitive. Though air freight operators could stand to profit from a revaluation, this fillip is unlikely to find its way into the pockets of Chinese ship owners.
Unlike aircraft, most Chinese ships are produced domestically, meaning lines would take little benefit from a relative fall in overseas production costs. Though a decline in the cost of bunker fuel would help cut expenditure, this would go only a small way towards offsetting what would almost certainly be a severe reduction in overseas demand for Chinese exports of clothes, household items and other manufactured products which are the bread and butter of Chinese container lines such as China Overseas Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO) and China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL).
Beijing’s understanding of the potential damage a one-off revaluation of the yuan would have on the country’s export sector is surely a factor in China’s overwhelmingly cautious approach to alteration of its exchange-rate policy. This reality was not lost on investors in the two shipping lines whose shares, unlike those of China’s major airlines, showed little movement amid the market’s otherwise bullish sentiment. China’s massive economic machine will continue supporting the freight transport sector, but there are signs that the engine is beginning to decelerate due to a combination of factors. Slowing property prices, stress in the banking system, weaker global demand for Chinese exports, the formal ending of the CNY/US$ peg, inflation and wage pressures all point to slower growth.
There are also signs that the economy is rebalancing away from export-led growth to a model more strongly based on domestic demand. Political risk factors will focus on potential labour unrest and the likely reaction of the ruling Communist Party. After 11.9% GDP growth last year, we see the economy slowing in both 2010 (to 8.8%) and 2011 (to 7.5%).
China’s airfreight industry is growing strongly and attracting greater interest from investors and international airlines as a ’consolidation play’. In 2010, we now expect airfreight volume to increase by 11.2%, more than offsetting last year’s drop of 3.9%. period to 2014.
We maintain our view that road transport is set for continued strong growth as road connections across the country improve, the number of vehicles grow, and the pattern of freight demand shifts in a lower bulk/higher value direction. This year, BMI projects that cargo volume hauled on Chinese roads will rise by 8.0%.
Rail freight growth rates are beginning to moderate. Double-digit annual growth in tonnage volume is now unlikely looking forward. In 2010, we predict total cargo volume will rise by 7.8%, offsetting last year’s drop of 2.5%.
BMI is projecting an increase in volume at the Port of Shanghai (POS), up by 15.6%, after the 13.6% contraction during the slump last year. Going forward we believe growth will be level off quite abruptly. At the Port of Ningbo Zhoushan (PONZ) we see this year’s volume gaining by a very strong 27%. Shanghai is expected to see 10.6% container handling growth while PONZ will see growth of 5.1%. In real terms, we expect China’s total trade (imports + exports) to surge forward this year, following the sharp 13.5% fall in 2009. The recovery will see growth of 20.3% in 2010, more than making up for last year’s setback. However, 2011 will see the brakes applied again, with trade growth reducing right down to only 2.5%, making for three very volatile years. BMI’s medium term forecast is for average annual realterms trade growth of 7.9%, almost on a par with GDP, and representing something of a slowdown on the earlier part of this decade.
In fact, we believe that behind these rather stop-go figures a fundamental realignment is taking place, with the driver of the Chinese economy shifting from exports to internal demand. Notably, over the next five years we expect imports to grow by an annual average of 9.9%, significantly above exports of 6.3%. The main risk factor for our China freight transport forecasts lies on the downside, and is represented by a greater-than-expected ’double-dip’ global economic slowdown in 2011, potentially in the worst scenario. combined with the outbreak of a US-China trade war. Reciprocal trade sanctions between Washington and Beijing could lead to quite sharp reductions in bilateral trade volume.

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Browse the complete Report on : Iran Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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While economic sanctions loom large among the Iranian freight transport industry's current concerns, shipping liquid natural gas (LNG) is a big issue for the future. Iran's shipping sector was reported to be preparing itself for the development of LNG production in the country with the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) set to receive a fleet of vessels to cater for Iran's planned LNG exports. The NITC is due to take on its fleet of six LNG carriers in phases between 2014 and 2015; the vessels are estimated by the Fars news agency to be worth US$200-220mn.
The company is expanding other areas of its fleet further - Reuters reported that the company's fleet of 46 vessels was set to increase to 74 ships in 2013. The six LNG carriers will be the first of their type in the NITC's fleet. NITC currently operates a fleet of 28 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), 14 tankers, three chemical carriers and one LPG vessel. BMI notes that the NITC's decision to add LNG vessels to its fleet is in line with Iran's LNG development strategy. The country is expected to export its first LNG in 2013. The managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), Reza Kassaei Zadeh, has stated that by 2025 Iran is planning to control 10% of the global natural gas trade.
Going into the second half of 2010 operating conditions for freight transport companies in Iran remained difficult but of course, not impossible,. The main development was the further tightening of US and European Union sanctions against the country, imposed in reprisal for Tehran's nuclear programme. While this was causing real difficulties (particularly on the financing front) for key state transport companies such as shipping line IRISL and Iran Air, high oil prices and a recovery, albeit weak, in the domestic economy, were partially alleviating the position. BMI is predicting GDP growth of 2.1% this year, up from a low of 1.0% in 2009. There will be some further modest acceleration in 2011 onwards, but our five-year medium term forecast still puts average annual growth at an unimpressive 3.0%, way below the high single numbers achieved during the oil boom years earlier this decade.
Iran's air freight sector will enjoy a weak recovery in 2010 with a y-o-y increase in tonnage of 0.6%, a marginal improvement on 2009. estimated figure of 636,530 tonnes. Iran Air's current difficulties sourcing aviation fuel in Europe is a downside risk to this modest forecast.
The Iranian trucking business is set for strong growth, with volume hauled expected to grow 4.4% this year, and increasing by a further 6.6% in 2011. It is Iran's road freight sector, in BMI's opinion, that holds the most potential for growth over the mid term, with road freight dominating the country's land-based freight mix. Road haulage is also one of the transport modes least affected so far by economic sanctions. Goods transported via Iran's rail freight service are estimated to have been flat in 2009. 2010 in BMI's opinion should see volumes right themselves with a y-o-y growth projection of 1.5%
The port of Bandar Abbas is continuing to defy the downturn. It handled 898,642TEUs in the first four months of 2010 (January 2010-April 2010), a y-o-y increase of 45.6% when compared with the first four months of throughput in 2009. For 2010 as a whole we forecast the port's growth to continue with a y-o-y increase of 8.65%.
Iran's total trade was estimated by our Country Risk team to have decreased by 2.9% in 2009, brought on by an estimated import decrease of 2% and an estimated fall in export volumes of 4%. Trade is expected to pick up again in 2010 with a growth of 2.56% forecast for 2010. Over the mid term, we expect total trade to increase by an estimated yearly average of 4.2%.
BMI warns of the risk potential to these forecasts. Further international sanctions would have a negative impact on throughput and publicity about the port of Bandar Abbas and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) being used for the alleged transport of weapons, will no doubt tarnish the reputation of Iran's port sector.

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Browse the complete Report on : Brazil Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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In mid-2010, BMI discussed the uncertainty surrounding the costs and timetable for the high-speed rail tender in Brazil. Factors that could deter sponsors and that made BMI question the economics of the project included: an increase in the private funding requirement from 30% to 40%; the fares cap was set lower, creating a possible profit margin squeeze; demand risks were to be carried by the private operator; there were inconsistencies in estimated cost; and there were also numerous delays in launching the tender.We should quantify our view by noting that we anticipate that it will be mainly European and North American companies, which have shown interest so far, that are the most likely to be deterred when faced with uncertainty and risk surrounding the contract. Companies from South Korea and Japan, which are scouring the globe for new markets and contracts, are not expected to back down.
The tender was due to start on May 5 2010 but there have been no updates from the government about its status, adding further to the uncertainty to the project. In July, Reuters reported that the national auditing council, Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), had proposed a 9.5% reduction in the project's estimated cost, from BRL36.6bn (US$20.0bn) to BRL33.1bn (US$18.3bn), noting the lack of precision in the government's original cost estimates. The revised bidding terms were due to be published in mid-July 2010 and the project will be awarded to the consortium that offers the lowest fares and the highest level of technology transfer. However, this latest development further skews the economics of the project. Though strategically the project does makes sense, as it provides competition for airlines, especially at these reduced rates, the lack of precedent means that the 7mn passenger estimate could be too bullish in the worst case scenario.
In general, the Brazilian market has appeared to be strongly supportive of the local freight transport sector. Data for Q110 showed that, driven by investment and private consumption, the country's GDP expanded at the fastest rate in 15 years, persuading BMI to raise our forecast for the calendar year to 6.0% (up from 5.0% in our previous quarterly report). The presidential election are due in October, and the candidate for the in-office Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), Dilma Rouseff, is leading in the opinion polls ahead of José Serra from the opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB). However, we believe there will be a lot of continuity in economic policy whoever wins.
Recent reports have noted that Brazil's airport infrastructure is still lagging behind demand. In 2008 and 2009, the industry was shaken by capacity, air traffic control and safety problems. However, we believe a process of gradual improvement is underway and have marginally revised up our forecasts. We project that air cargo volume will grow by 4.3%, following a 7.9% slump in 2009.
Brazil's main ports are in recovery mode. For 2010, BMI forecasts that volume at Santos will grow by a strong 13.1%. For the rest of our five-year forecast period to 2014, the port will be at the centre of Brazil's dynamic trading activity. We predict annual average volume growth of 10.7% to 2014. At the southern Port of Itajaí growth will also be strong. Last year was an atypical year there, with volumes rising sharply following a fall caused by flooding damage at the Teconvi terminal in late 2008. However, for 2010 we project tonnage to increase by 18.6%.
The government is considering new rules to boost competition in the rail sector but it is that growth is already well entrenched as Brazil's commodity exports growth gather pace and investment pours into the rail transport sector. Total tonnes carried by rail, which fell by an estimated 3.6% in 2009, are forecast surge by 14.3% in 2010.
In real terms, Brazil's trade slumped by 10.9% during last year's global recession but it is set to bounce back very strongly in 2010 with 19.6% growth. As domestic demand powers ahead, imports should decisively lead the way with growth of 31%, while exports will grow by a relatively more modest 6.5% in 2010.
We have revised up our freight transport forecasts slightly, and we believe the risks are upside on the short term but downside in the medium term. The scenario we continue to have in mind is one in which the government becomes a little too enthusiastic about pump-priming the economy and domestic consumption ahead of October's general election. An overly strong consumer boom in H210 would increase demand for freight transport, but it is likely to be short-lived and be followed by slower growth in 2011.


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Browse the complete Report on: Panama Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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In mid-July BMI believed a strike conducted by nearly 700 workers involved in the expansion of the Panama Canal was likely to be resolved quickly and would not affect the completion of the Panama Canal expansion project. Nevertheless, we cautioned that political risk, and in particular public unrest, remained a major obstacle to the development of the maritime sector in Latin America, and that it could yet hinder the canal's expansion.
Negotiations had started between representatives of the striking workers and Grupo Unidos por el Canal (GUPC), the international consortium handling the project. It was hoped that the talks would bring an end to the dispute, which had paralysed work on the project for 10 days. Workers were demanding better wages, transportation, more sanitary working conditions and other improvements, taking industrial action just six days after the official inauguration of the US$3.1bn project, which will see a third set of locks added to the canal.
Local market conditions are supportive for the Panamanian freight transport industry, although there is both light and shade in the outlook. Following the 2009 recession, weak demand is persisting in the US economy, and the recovery that is playing out in Panama is consequently moderate. After growth slowed to 3.4% in 2009, we see the pace picking up to 4.1% this year, and then to 5.1% in 2011. Two recent decisions bode well: increased Panama Canal rates and the liberalisation of mining laws to allow the development of the Cerro Colorado copper project could boost fiscal revenues, diversify exports, and in the case of Cerro Colorado create a major new source of demand for dry bulk freight. On the other hand these and other moves on labour legislation by President Ricardo Martinelli could boost opposition protests, particularly from trade unions and environmental groups.
Panama is performing well in the airfreight sector. Copa's June 2010 figures showed significant business growth. Airfreight tonnage growth slowed, but did not turn negative in the recession-dominated year of 2009. For 2010, we see a reasonably strong recovery, with growth of 5.1%.
At the Port of Balboa, Panama's most active terminal, BMI expects volume growth of 5.8% this year, coming after a virtual standstill in 2009. The recovery in world trade and the use of Panama as a transhipment point are key factors in this growth. Recent increases in Canal Zone rates will, we believe, be absorbed without a loss of shipping business. The story at Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) is similar, although a little less pronounced. After a flat 2009, volume at MIT will grow 2.8%.
Total Panamanian trade grew by 3.7% in real terms in 2009, but is picking up pace with an advance of 5.2% expected in 2010. For the five-year forecast period running to 2014, real growth will come in at an annual average of 5.4%, almost one percentage point ahead of GDP. Over that period imports will be a little more dynamic than exports (annual average growth of 6.1% vs. 4.7% for exports).
We believe the risks to our Panama freight forecasts are marginally on the downside. The major risk remains lower-than-expected US growth, which would impact on trade levels. Labour and opposition unrest is, we believe emerging as a potentially important second risk, Government policies to liberalise labour and mining legislation could attract controversy and opposition; while normal in a democracy, prolonged protests might give investors second thoughts.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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