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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Poland Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.49% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing less than 0.1% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Poland’s share of 2009 gas consumption was an estimated 2.09%, while it makes an insignificant contribution to regional supply. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.24%.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Polish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.7% in 2009, followed by forecast 3.4% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2014. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 568,000b/d by 2014, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 558,000b/d. We are assuming that gas consumption will reach 17.5bcm by 2014, requiring imports of 13.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Polish oil consumption of 15.5%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 512,000b/d to 604,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 13.5bcm to 20.3bcm by 2019, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 50.9% between 2010 and 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Poland shares third place with Russia in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares third place with Bulgaria in BMI’s updated and enlarged upstream Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. Its licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Russia is three points behind in the regional upstream ranking, and is likely to catch Poland over the longer term. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment Ratings, ranked third behind only Russia and Turkey. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-topping competitive landscape


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Original Source : – Oil and Gas Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
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Propped up by its large population, Poland has surfaced as one of the most important global emerging markets, with its value in 2009 calculated at PLN30.25bn (US$10.26bn) at retail prices. Over a five-year period, BMI forecasts that pharmaceutical sales in Poland will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% in zloty terms, or 9.1% in US dollar terms. By absolute value, the market will have grown to PLN41.80bn (US$15.83bn) by 2014, making Poland the ninth-fastest growing market globally.

In BMI’s Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Emerging Europe in Q410, Poland remains in second place, supported by increased optimism surrounding the country’s market outlook. On a global basis, Poland is 17th of the total of 83 markets surveyed in our pharmaceutical universe. However, the country’s longer-term demographic outlook is relatively challenging, as are some of the current regulatory issues.

Nevertheless, factors such as an educated workforce and lower manufacturing costs will continue to attract foreign players. To this end, in July 2010, Synexus, a UK-based clinical trials company, was reported to be expanding its presence in Poland with a new research centre in the northern city of Gdynia.

This adds to the company's portfolio of facilities across the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, which includes research centres in Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria and Ukraine. In addition to lower operating costs, Synexus and other clinical research organisations (CROs) are also attracted to emerging markets by their large segments of treatment-naïve patients. The clinical trials industry in Poland is already worth around PLN700mn (US$233mn), with the number of Phase IV trials increasing in recent years.

BMI expects the Polish economy to continue expanding at a healthy clip over our ten-year forecast period, with average annual real growth of 3.3% during 2015-2019. Moreover, Poland's solid macroeconomic fundamentals and credible central bank will likely see euro adoption around 2014, underpinning further integration into the EU and thus further facilitating cross-border business. Inflation of less than 3% for most of our forecast period will also mean that the forecast expansion of the pharmaceutical market is mostly based on direct changes in values and volumes of medicines sold. Still, the operating environment for drugmakers - especially of those offering more expensive patented treatments - will remain challenging, given the focus on cost-containment. While the recently announced PLN590mn (US$187mn) injection into the reimbursement budget will provide a degree of optimism to the pharmaceutical industry, the amount is a shadow of the PLN1.5bn (US$476mn) overall cut in the public health expenditure budget for 2010. Nevertheless, threats remain from potential changes to the reimbursement system, the backlog of approvals for innovative drugs and the introduction of company taxation for reimbursed medicines. The local industry has been consolidating, partly as a result of the government’s privatisation initiatives, but also party due to competitive pressures.
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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2010


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The revival of the Polish petrochemicals industry is being led by domestic consumption, with export markets of domestic plastics transformers set to remain in the doldrums, according to BMIs latest Poland Petrochemicals Report.
A return to solid growth in the construction sector, assisted by developments related to the Euro 2012 Championship, should ensure that Anwils VCM-PVC operations at Wloclawek sustain full capacity production. However, the continued lacklustre performance in consumer products and packaging could hamper polyethylene margins at Basell Orlen Polyolefins plant in Plock. While its 400,000tpa PP production facility will benefit from upward pressure on prices due to a tightening in supply  caused in part to a force majeure at the Plock PP plant in May as well as other European PP facilities  the restriction on propylene feedstock supply will continue to undermine PP margins. Added to this is the effect of the weakening of the European automotive market on domestic carmakers. With the end of scrappage schemes in most countries in Europe, sales have fallen back to lower levels, ending the short term increase created by the incentive packages and giving a bleak outlook for the market.
There are likely to be further challenges to the industry in the wake of the eurozone debt crisis, which will lead to fiscal austerity measures that should dampen consumer demand in major export markets, thereby depressing demand for moulded plastics used in consumer goods as well as engineering plastics used in the automotive industry. Nevertheless, as the only major CEE economy to avoid recession in 2009 (instead expanding by 1.7%), Poland is gearing up to post a healthy rate of growth in 2010 that should feed into an expansion of polymer resins demand.
The future of the Polish petrochemicals industry will be determined by the restructuring and divestment of local petrochemicals producer PKN Orlens assets. Burdened with debt, PKN Orlen is selling off several non-core subsidiaries as part of its strategy for the period up to 2013. As part of its restructuring plan, PKN Orlen has cut back on its annual investment plans and sought to increase its operating efficiency. However, it is pressing ahead with several major expansion schemes, including the construction of a 400,000tpa plant to produce paraxylene and purified terephthalic acid (PTA), scheduled for completion in H210.
In July 2010, reports surfaced that PKN Orlen may sell its Orlen Lietuva (formerly Maeikių Nafta) refinery in Maeikiai, Lithuania. The final decision is due to be made by Orlen’s management, in consultation with the Polish Treasury, in September, after the expiry of an ultimatum on rail infrastructure and freight charges by Poland. BMI believes it is likely Orlen will seek to sell the refinery, which would effectively end Orlens plans for expanding propylene production at the refinery. Meanwhile, PKN Orlens talks to sell Anwil to Polands Zakłady Azotowe Puławy (ZAP), the leading maker of fertilisers and a world-leader in the production of melamine, collapsed in June 2010. The parties decided to terminate discussions due to differences in views over price and non-price conditions of the proposed transaction, according to PKN Orlen which is now reported to be willing to consider selling off the Anwil business in two separate parts, based on its polymers division and the fertiliser operations. Polands score has risen by 0.1 points to 57.8 points due to a modest improvement in its country risk ratings, maintaining its second place position in our Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Business Environment matrix. A significant improvement in its country risk profile now puts Poland just 0.3 points below regional leader Russia and 2.2 points ahead of Hungary. Meanwhile, petrochemicalsspecific scores remain unchanged, with BMI casting doubt on any major capacity additions over the medium-term. Diversification of market suppliers and increased feedstock availability could improve Polands score, although it stands little chance of exceeding Russia  which should retain its dominant position in Eastern Europe.

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Browse the complete Report on: Poland Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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The shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland has taken a step closer with a consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) winning the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. BMI believes that the construction of the terminal is set to change the make-up of Poland's maritime sector, which until now has been geared towards containers and dry bulk cargo such as coal.
The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Poland's gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the country's reliance on Russia for its gas. As well seeking diversification of its gas supplies, Poland needs to boost its gas imports as consumption is increasing while production is falling. The country is developing gas-fired power stations that will need to be fuelled, with Radoslaw Dudzinski, CEO of Poland's state-owned Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), estimating an additional 1.5-2.0GW of power could be brought online by 2015. The construction of the terminal is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. The launch date gives the terminal plenty of preparation time before its first shipment of LNG, which is due, according to BMI's oil and gas estimates, in 2014. BMI's forecast for Poland's air freight shows a year on year growth of cargo traffic in 2010. We anticipate Poland's air freight volume recovering by 6.7% y-o-y this year to 55,910 tonnes, after an estimated contraction of 9.89% in 2009.
We expect cargo handled at two of Poland's key ports, the Port of Gdansk and the Port of Gdynia, to grow at a moderate rate this year in general tonnage terms. The Port of Gdansk throughput will increase by 6.6% to 20.11mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession. Volumes grew 6.1% to 18.86mn tonnes last year. This year total volume at the Port of Gdynia will gain 7.2% to 14.21mn tonnes. Last year volumes there dropped by 14.3% to 13.26mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we expect the volumes to recover 3.78% to 216.5mn tonnes this year, after falling an estimated 16.17% in 2009. The pace should accelerate in 2011 with a growth of 5.4%. BMI forecasts higher growth pattern for the country's road freight, which tries to recover from a huge drop in traffic. We predict the 2010 volumes to reach 153.1mn tonnes, a y-o-y increase of 14.23% after an estimated fall of 48.15% in 2009. 2011 will see road freight volumes to grow by 18.46%.

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.

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Browse the complete Report on : Poland Shipping Report Q4 2010

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The shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland has taken a step closer with a consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) winning the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. BMI believes the construction of the terminal is set to change the make-up of Poland’s maritime sector, which until now has been geared towards catering for containers and dry bulk cargos such as coal.
The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Poland’s gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the country’s reliance on Russia for its gas. As well seeking diversification of its gas supplies, Poland needs to boost its gas imports as consumption is increasing while production is falling. The country is developing gas-fired power stations that will need to be fuelled, with Radoslaw Dudzinski, CEO of Poland’s state-owned Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), estimating an additional 1.5-2GW of power could be brought online by 2015. The construction of the terminal is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. The launch date gives the terminal plenty of preparation time before its first shipment of LNG, which is due, according to BMI’s oil and gas desk estimates, in 2014. We expect cargo handled at two of Poland’s key ports, the Port of Gdansk and the Port of Gdynia, to grow at a moderate rate this year in general tonnage terms. The Port of Gdansk throughput will increase by 6.6% to 20.11mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes grew 6.1% to 18.86mn tonnes last year). This year total volume at the Port of Gdynia will gain 7.2% to 14.21mn tonnes. Last year volumes there dropped by 14.3% to 13.26mn tonnes.
At the Port of Gdansk container movements will grow by a staggering 58.8% to 382,050 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year, overtaking the Port of Gdynia as the country’s largest container port. Gdynia’s box volumes are expected to be down by 23.3% to 288,213TEUs. Port of Gdansk ’s growth has been consistently positive in recent years, greatly aided by Maersk Line’s switch from Gdynia, where container volumes stayed almost flat (-0.59%, y-o-y) in 2008 and slumped by 38.5% in 2009. Affected by the global recession, Poland’s total trade fell by 11.2% in real terms in 2009, and we see a slow 3.5% rebound in 2010, followed by 5.6% growth in 2011. This year exports will grow more strongly than imports in real terms (4.0% vs 3.0%).

About Us

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


Contact:

Ms. Sunita
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