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Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s attractiveness to multinational drugmakers has increased, according to BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q410. The region's risk/reward score increased from 51.0 in Q310 to 52.1 in Q410. This improvement is a result of the country rewards and risk ratings both improving by 9% this quarter. However, there has not been a significant increase in the pharmaceutical industry rewards or risks, with the regional ratings broadly unmoved. Moldova has remained 19th out of 20 countries in BMI’s Q410 CEE Regional Ratings and is unlikely to move up the table in the short term, as the country is likely to be slow to recover from the global economic downturn.
In 2009, pharmaceutical expenditure in Moldova reached a value of MDL2.15bn (US$208mn), having grown at a double-digit rate over the previous three years. The next five years should be a period of lower growth, compared with 2004-2009, as the country, characterised by low per-capita consumption, recovers from its economic difficulties. Both the EU and Russia’s recoveries are likely to have an impact on Moldova’s economy. By 2014, we expect the drug market to be worth MDL3.10bn (US$245mn), experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.65% in local currency terms and 3.35% in US dollar terms. Over the extended forecast 2009-2019 forecast period, we calculate that the drug market will experience a CAGR of 9.39% in local currency terms and 7.76% in US dollar terms, reaching a value of MDL5.27bn (US$439mn) in 2019. In 2009, prescription drugs accounted for 65.8% of the total drug market, equating to MDL1.41bn (US$137mn), with patented drugs comprising 7.6% of the total drug market and generic drugs accounting for 58.2%.
Healthcare in Moldova is split between two diverse profiles; that of a developed country in urban areas and that of an underdeveloped country in rural areas. Both profiles have distinctive characteristics and need addressing in different ways. In rural Moldova, where approximately 55% of the population lives, patients are underserved, medicine shortages are commonplace, healthcare professionals are few and obsolete medical equipment causes quality of care concerns. This poor distribution of resources needs to be addressed by the government. In 2009, healthcare expenditure in Moldova reached a value of MDL6.94bn (US$620mn) and by 2014 we calculate the healthcare sector will be worth MDL9.59bn (US$760mn), experiencing a CAGR of 6.70% in local currency terms and 4.26% in US dollar terms. Public healthcare spending accounted for 53.6% of total healthcare spending in 2009 and by 2014 will account for 58.4%.
Meanwhile, in late May 2010, it was announced that the Centre for Combating Economic Crimes and Corruption (CCECC) and the National Tax Inspectorate were inspecting pharmaceutical wholesalers in Moldova, with regards to price increases of up to 150% implemented on medicines. The aim of the inspection is to control and regulate the price setting method and avoid large price increase on medicines.


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