Electric Buses and Taxis 2011-2021
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The electrification of commercial on-road transport is now being progressed strongly by both paybacks and mandates of local and national governments across the world. Even where paybacks are underwhelming, the green agendas of the participants is driving things forward but there are impediments too, including up-front cost and the poor range and reliability of some versions and the practicality and cost of infrastructure. This report gives numbers and value for hybrid and for pure electric buses and taxis, market drivers and overall transport statistics to put this in context. The most active countries are identified and projections specifically for China are given. Large numbers of suppliers are identifies and some interesting ones are profiled. Drive trains and batteries are examined. Energy harvesting to power up the charging station is analysed – solar is not the only option here. The standards situation is holding things up to a lesser or greater extent across the world and the content, timelines and issues involved are examined. Forecasts of charging station numbers, unit value and total value are given, detailed by charging speed and territory.
Analysis is the essence of this report with many figures and tables comparing the pros and cons and giving detailed new forecasts for 2012-2022. Uniquely comprehensive in scope, it appraises work from New Zealand to Canada and Japan. The charging issues and equipment employed with electric land, water and air vehicles are considered, both hybrid and pure electric, and the solutions now and in future. The recent opinions of many interested parties are quoted. The impact of alternatives is considered such as gas turbine and fuel cell charging of on-road vehicle batteries, with no roadside charging, and the declining percentage of hybrids that do not plug in. The surprisingly large number of companies providing or about to provide solar powered roadside charging and inductive contactless charging, both resonant and conventional, is appraised. The very different standards situations are examined for North America, Europe and East Asia, for both charging stations and their interfaces, and the battle for the global standards.
Publisher >> IDTechEx
Report Category: Utilities
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Definitions
1.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis
1.2.2. Hybrids are key for now
1.3. Advantages of electric buses
1.4. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
1.5. Demand and production in China
1.6. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
1.7. Taxis
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Electric vehicles in general
2.2. Advantages of electric buses
2.3. Highlights 2011-2021
2.4. Definitions and trends
2.5. Modest success of electric microbuses
2.6. Convergence of hybrid and pure electric buses.
2.7. Convergence of trolley buses and free running electric buses
3. ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES
3.1. History of electric buses
3.2. Main components of hybrid bus power trains
4. PROFILES OF SOME INTERESTING SUPPLIERS
4.1. Alexander Dennis UK
4.2. Anhui Ankai Automobile Company China
4.3. Daimler Germany
4.4. Designline International New Zealand
4.5. Hino Motors
4.6. IVECO Italy
4.7. ISE Corp
4.8. Navistar USA
4.9. Optare UK
4.10. Ryobe Bus Japan
4.11. TATA India
4.12. Wrightbus UK
4.13. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd.
5. BUS DRIVE TRAINS
5.1. Adura Systems USA
5.2. Allison Transmission USA
5.3. Azure Dynamics USA
5.4. BAE Systems UK, USA
5.5. BLK
5.6. Eaton USA
5.7. ISE Corporation
5.8. SIM Drive Corporation Japan
5.9. SR drives UK, Green Propulsion Belgium
5.10. ThunderVolt USA
6. ELECTRIC TAXI MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES
7. TRACTION BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, RANGE EXTENDERS
7.1. Traction batteries
7.2. Who is Winning in Traction Batteries and Why
7.2.1. The needs have radically changed
7.2.2. It started with cobalt
7.2.3. Great variety of recipes
7.2.4. Other factors
7.2.5. Check with reality
7.2.6. Lithium winners today and soon
7.2.7. Reasons for winning
7.2.8. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
7.2.9. Winning chemistry
7.2.10. Titanate establishes a place
7.2.11. Laminar structure
7.2.12. Niche winners
7.2.13. Fluid situation
8. FUEL CELLS
8.1. Trials of fuel cell powered vehicles
8.2. Fuel cell 2000 summary of fuel cell bus trials in 2010
8.3. Range extenders
9. MARKET STATISTICS AND FORECASTS
9.1. Past trends
9.1.1. Commercial vehicles
9.2. Buses – historical trends
9.3. School buses – North America
9.4. Past trend in bus production by country
9.5. US population of buses by type
9.6. Transport modes in India
9.7. Motor vehicle production by leading producers
9.8. Global electric bus deliveries to start of 2011.
9.9. Forecasts to 2021
9.9.1. Global demand for electric buses and taxis
9.9.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis
9.10. Technology future
9.10.1. Hybrids are key for now
9.11. Future leading manufacturers
9.11.1. Today’s leading electric bus manufacturer
9.11.2. Future leading user nation
9.11.3. Buses and taxis a good launch pad for new technologies
9.11.4. Global conventional and electric bus demand 2010-2021
9.11.5. Advantages of electric buses
9.12. Decade of the hybrid
9.13. Liberty Electric Cars
9.14. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region
9.15. Conventional and electric bus demand and production in China
9.16. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars
9.17. Global electric vehicle manufacturers by application
9.18. Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by application
9.18.2. Taxis
9.19. Adoption of green taxis
9.20. Electric vehicles in East Asia
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY
APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
APPENDIX 3: INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES
TABLES
1.1. Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2010-2021
1.2. Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total
1.3. Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 in thousands rounded
1.4. Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2021 and impediments
1.5. Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
1.6. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
1.7. Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
1.8. Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
1.9. Unit pricing, number and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
1.10. Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
1.11. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
1.12. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
1.13. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2010-2021
1.14. Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
1.15. Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 – forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
1.16. Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
1.17. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands and % market share
1.18. Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021 by number, unit value and market value
1.19. Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis
1.20. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
1.21. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
1.22. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
1.23. 2009 production statistics
2.1. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
2.2. Challenges of electric buses and taxis
2.3. Main market drivers 2011-2021
2.4. Electric vehicle highlights 2011-2021
2.5. Limitations of trolleybuses and trams
3.1. 78 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses, with country of headquarters and image
3.2. 53 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
6.1. Some projects testing pure electric taxis
7.1. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
7.2. 68 Lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
9.1. 2009 production statistics
9.2. Bus production by country in 2002
9.3. Global sales of buses by region 2002
9.4. Country percentage share of heavy bus and school bus production in 2009
9.5. US aircraft, vehicles and other conveyances 1995-2006
9.6. US transportation capital stock by mode 1995-2007 current $ billion
9.7. Indian Cities Mode Split, 2007 (Wilbur Smith 2008)
9.8. The UK top five bus suppliers in 2006 and 2007
9.9. Global demand for electric buses and taxis $ billion 2010-2021
9.10. Global electric bus demand market forecast for 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and numbers pure electric in thousands with total.
9.11. Electric vs all buses purchased globally and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 in thousands rounded
9.12. Market drivers of global growth of bus and electric bus sales 2011-2021 and impediments
9.13. Approximate annual purchase of hybrid electric replacement buses by major cities in the period 2015-2021
9.14. Advantages of pure electric buses, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric buses
9.15. Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
9.16. Pricing of hybrid buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
9.17. Unit pricing, number (thousand) and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
9.18. Pricing of pure electric buses in 2010 and premium over conventional equivalent
9.19. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
9.20. Market drivers of future purchasing of buses by region and % growth
9.21. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2010-2021
9.22. Estimates of hybrid bus transmission sales by manufacturer in 2009
9.23. Hybrid bus sales 2008-2013 – forecasted numbers globally for some leading suppliers
9.24. Growth rate of market by numbers for buses and electric buses, hybrid and pure electric, 2011-2021
9.25. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands and % market share
9.26. Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021 by number, unit value and market value
9.27. Demand in China for taxis and electric taxis, thousands and % penetration of taxis in China and of global electric taxis
9.28. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
9.29. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
9.30. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
9.31. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011-2021
FIGURES
1.1. Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021.
1.2. Global electric bus demand market forecast 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands and total
1.3. Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 rounded
1.4. Bus size vs fuel consumption
1.5. Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
1.6. Unit pricing, number and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
1.7. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
1.8. Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
1.9. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2010-2021
1.10. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
1.11. The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
1.12. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
1.13. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
1.14. Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021.
1.15. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
1.16. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
1.17. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
1.18. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
2.1. Isuzu sales of buses 2005-2009
2.2. Electric bus in Nepal
2.3. PhUV pure electric bus
2.4. Tara pure electric Shuttle
2.5. A Volvo hybrid powertrain for buses is shown below
2.6. Orion VII NG hybrid bus
2.7. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric buses showing the convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies as the conventional internal combustion engine ICE is abandoned.
2.8. Rome trolleybus raising its trolley arms to switch from battery to overhead-wire power. In the view on the right the pick-up has yet to properly locate itself around the overhead wires.
2.9. Opbrid pantograph for fast recharging
2.10. Hydrogen fuel cell for buses etc from UTC Power
2.11. Ultracapacitor layout in a MAN hybrid bus
2.12. In-road charging of small buses in Turin Italy.
2.13. Straddling bus concept
3.1. Pure electric bus in 1907
3.2. Proposal for new London double decker hybrid electric bus
3.3. Capoco driverless electric bus concept
3.4. Insectbus concept
3.5. 78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by country of headquarters.
3.6. 78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by continent of headquarters.
3.7. Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by continent.
3.8. Sample of 53 pure electric bus manufacturers by country.
4.1. Alexander Dennis Enviro400 hybrid bus configuration
4.2. Daimler bus production locations
4.3. Unit sales of the Daimler bus division 2008-9
4.4. Daimler bus sales by global region H1 2009
4.5. Daimler bus market share and market share of leading competitors in 2007
4.6. Daimler’s technology roadmap for launching new bus technologies to 2015
4.7. HyFLEET:CUTE fuel cell bus project in Europe and the US
4.8. Hino hybrid bus
4.9. Hino “no plug in” bus.
4.10. Iveco pure electric bus elements
4.11. Iveco configurations
4.12. ISE lean burn hybrid bus
4.13. ISE initial hybrid configuration
4.14. Ryobe solar assisted electric bus
4.15. The Bladon Jets microturbine range extender is the size of two large cans of beans
4.16. Jaguar concept car demonstrated late 2010
4.17. Tata electric roadmap of launches
4.18. A Zhongtong pure electric bus
5.1. Adura’s MESA Powertrain
5.2. Azure Dynamics powertrain.
5.3. BAE Systems Hybridrive series hybrid bus powertrain
5.4. Eaton hybrid powertrain
5.5. ISE Corp hybrid powertrain
5.6. SIM Drive in wheel traction
5.7. SR drives series parallel power unit
5.8. ThunderVolt hybrid drive train for ISE buses
7.1. Traction battery experience curve for pure electric battery electric vehicles
7.2. Volkswagen forecasts the following cost trend for the favoured types of traction battery.
7.3. Progress in improving energy density vs power density of traction batteries.
7.4. Comparison of benefits and challenges for various types of traction battery.
7.5. Geely IG solar car
7.6. Japanese ten meter long deep sea cruising AUV, the URASHIMA
7.7. Bionic dolphin
7.8. Deepflight Merlin
7.9. Cri-Cri pure electric stunt plane new in 2010
7.10. Oshkosh truck
7.11. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
8.1. Series hybrid bus being developed by Mobile Energy Solutions
8.2. MAN hybrid fuel cell bus
8.3. Van Hool fuel cell buses on trial
8.4. Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
8.5. Mercedes Benz fuel cell bus trial
9.1. World heavy bus production by country and type for 2008-9
9.2. North American sales of school buses 2000-2009
9.3. Daimler Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.4. Fiat Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.5. GAZ Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.6. General Motors vehicle production by type in 2009
9.7. Hyundai Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.8. Mahindra Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.9. Navistar Group vehicle production by type in 2009
9.10. Tata Group vehicle production in 2009
9.11. Volvo group production in 2009
9.12. Global market for electric taxis based on regular cars as a percentage of the total electric car market in 2021
9.13. Global electric bus demand market forecast 2010-2021, in numbers hybrid and pure electric in thousands and total
9.14. Electric vs all buses purchased globally of units and % penetration of electric 2010-2021 rounded
9.15. Bus size vs fuel consumption
9.16. Unit pricing, number (thousands) and market value of hybrid electric buses 2010-2021
9.17. Unit pricing, number (thousand) and market value of pure electric buses 2010-2021
9.18. The total global market $ billion for electric buses 2010-2021
9.19. Number of buses purchased in 2011 by region
9.20. In China, demand for electric vs all buses in thousands of units and % share 2010-2021
9.21. Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide by applicational category in 2011
9.22. The approximate number of Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by applicational category in 2011
9.23. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
9.24. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
9.25. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
9.26. Global demand for electric taxis 2010-2021.
9.27. Number of taxis sold 2010-2021 and number of electric taxis 2010-2021 in thousands
9.28. Number, unit value and market value of electric taxis in China 2010-2021
9.29. Registered motorised taxis, with driver provided, by region in the world in 2010
9.30. Examples of taxi population in leading cities
9.31. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2011
9.32. The percentage value share by country of the East Asian electric vehicle market 2021
