Electric Vehicle Industry Profitability 2012 – Where, Why, What Next
Electric Vehicle Industry Profitability
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This report spells out the "Rules of the Marketplace" and sets them against the activities of many organisations active in the electric vehicle (EV) value chain to explain how to create success. It analyses the finances and positioning of many suppliers of EVs and their components, covering hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air, because they have increasing commonality in commercial terms. For example, they share the same parts and have the same lessons of success and failure. This report assesses profitability of companies making electric vehicles and their components, how industry rules predict winners and losers and acquisition and investment opportunities. Contrary to popular understanding, people have been making money out of electric vehicles and their key components for over 110 years. Today, there remain a large number of companies profitably participating in the business. Unfortunately there continue to be frequent bankruptcies in the electric vehicle business. The primary difference lies in market positioning and making what will be wanted in the years to come but also in avoiding areas of oversupply but there is more to it than that. For example, the leaders in pure electric indoor forklifts make good money following a shakeout 15 years ago and now that outdoor hybrid forklifts are a new growth sector, others are seeking to lead in them, rather than focussing on the saturated market. Profit V curves, technological roadmaps, experience curves, the Boston matrix and other tools give clarity about what comes next.
Ten years ago, IDTechEx correctly foresaw the collapse of many in the EV business due to wrong positioning and it forecasted the success of others. It now leverages its long history of analysing the financial, technical and marketing performance in this industry to show how to win and how to spot winners. Superb acquisition and investment opportunities abound. Many players headed for the rocks can be turned around before it is too late.
There are about 1600 manufacturers of electric vehicles apart from the huge number making e-bikes. There are about 500 vertically integrated manufacturers of their key components. Nearly all of them will collapse because of wrong technology or market positioning or undercapitalisation. However, many leaders will create enduringly profitable businesses of over $10 billion each and there will be many prosperous niche players too. This report covers the trends in trading performance and relative strength of companies making hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air and their six key components. It gives tools for predicting future trading success both in niches and in volume supply. It identifies gaps in these markets as well as danger areas. The report also gives ten year forecasts for electric vehicles of all types and a guide to winners and losers and optimal strategies for the next decade in the light of what will happen. This report will be invaluable to all those making or intending to profitably make electric vehicles or their components. It is also a vital reference for those investing in and acquiring EV businesses.
Publisher >> IDTechEx
Report Category: Utilities
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.2. Toyota: global leader in EVs by a big margin
1.3. Recent exhibits
1.4. Disruptive product and market options
1.5. Electric vehicle market by application 2012-2022
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Anatomy of Electric Vehicles by Land, Water and Air
2.2. Anatomy of the vehicle
2.3. Choices of motor
2.3.1. Brushed versions are losers
2.3.2. Asynchronous and synchronous battling it out
2.3.3. Axial flux vs radial flux motors
2.4. Sophisticated motors bridging gaps in performance
2.4.1. Advanced asynchronous motor variant – Chorus Motors
2.4.2. Advanced synchronous PM motor – Protean Electric
2.5. Motor position
2.6. Trend to higher voltages
2.7. NEV=Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle which is like a small car but not street legal
2.8. Profitability and structure of the EV industry in 2001
2.9. How things are different in 2012
2.10. Explaining and predicting profitability – rules of the marketplace
2.10.1. The breakeven curve
2.10.2. Type of business
2.10.3. Product and business positioning
2.10.4. Methodology of the Strategic Planning Institute
2.10.5. Product positioning is more important than anything
2.10.6. Detailed SRI findings
2.10.7. Meaningful market segmentation
2.10.8. Redefining the battleground
2.10.9. V curve of sustainable profitability with size
2.10.10. Minimum size for enduring profitability
2.10.11. Setting up a service business is easier
2.10.12. Riding the V
2.10.13. V curve for two wheel and allied Light Electric Vehicles LEVs
2.10.14. Experience curves
2.11. Racing down the experience curve
2.11.1. Disruptive products
3. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL LAND EVS
3.1. Many small markets becoming one?
4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL VEHICLES / MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT
4.1. Leaders
4.1.1. Crown Equipment Corporation
4.1.2. KION Group GmbH Germany
4.1.3. Nacco Industries Inc
4.2. Niche players
4.3. Currently in-between
5. OTHER INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
5.1. Leaders
5.1.1. Daimler AG Germany
5.1.2. Toyota Hino Motors Japan
5.2. Niche players
5.2.1. Polaris Industries USA
5.3. Currently in between
5.3.1. DesignLine International New Zealand
5.3.2. Optare UK
6. CARS, GOLF CARS AND ALLIED
6.1. Leaders
6.1.1. Ford USA
6.1.2. Honda Japan
6.1.3. Mitsubishi Japan
6.1.4. Nissan Japan
6.1.5. Toyota Japan
6.2. Niche players
6.2.1. Ingersoll Rand USA
6.2.2. Tesla USA
6.2.3. Textron USA
6.3. Currently in between
7. TWO WHEEL AND ALLIED LEVS
7.1. Leaders
7.1.1. Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle, China
7.1.2. Tianjin Aima Science and Technology Co, China
7.1.3. Jiangsu Yadea Technical Development Co China
7.2. Niche players
7.3. Currently in between
8. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED
8.1. Leaders
8.1.1. Invacare USA
8.1.2. Pihsiang Taiwan
8.1.3. Pride Mobility Products Corporation USA
8.2. Currently in between
9. AIR, WATER, MILITARY AND OTHER EVS
9.1. Niche players
9.1.1. AeroVironment USA
9.1.2. Kongsberg Norway
9.2. Currently in between
10. KEY ENABLING COMPONENTS
10.1. Three becoming six
10.2. Challenge of competing with your customers
10.3. Traction batteries
10.4. Potential Leaders
10.4.1. LGChem Korea
10.4.2. Panasonic/ Sanyo Japan
10.4.3. SB LiMotive and Samsung
10.4.4. Toyota Japan
10.5. Niche Players
10.5.1. SAFT France
10.5.2. Valence Technologies USA
10.6. Currently in between
10.6.1. A123 Systems USA
10.6.2. Ener1- Enerdel
10.6.3. EnerSys/ ASDL
10.7. Electronics & electrics
10.8. Energy harvesting
10.9. Traction motors
10.9.2. UQM Technologies USA
10.10. Range extenders
10.10.1. Lotus Engineering
10.11. Supercapacitors/ ultracapacitors
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. The main electric vehicle types with market size and niche and volume value leaders
1.2. Toyota results for FY to March 2011 in US dollars billion
1.3. Corporate information for Hino Motors
1.4. Estimate of Toyota EV sales value in 2012
1.5. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
2.1. Typical cost structure of pure electric vehicles as % of total
2.2. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for electric vehicles.
2.3. The main choices of electric vehicle traction motor technology over the next decade.
2.4. A comparison of potential and actual electric traction motor technologies is given below
2.5. Comparison of outer‐rotor and inner‐rotor motors
2.6. Number of EV manufacturers by type of vehicle and market size by type in 2001
2.7. Global electric vehicle manufacturing business in $billion at ex-factory price 2012-2022
4.1. KION Group results
4.2. KION view of leaders in material handling vehicles in 2009 in Euros billion.
4.3. Nacco Industries results in $ million, only some of which are from sale of electric vehicles
5.1. Corporate information for Hino Motors
6.1. Toyota results for FY to March 2011 in US dollars billion
6.2. Estimate of Toyota EV sales value in 2012
10.1. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
10.2. Extract from SEC-10K filing by Valence Technologies for Fiscal Year ended March 31 2011 in thousands
10.3. 123 of the companies manufacturing traction motors for electric vehicles
FIGURES
1.1. Toyota position in Boston matrix for electric vehicles (hybrid and pure electric) globally
1.2. Sales by Business Segment (FY 2011, Consolidated Basis)
1.3. Toyota global technology vision
1.4. Toyota Lexus CT 200, RX450 and GS 450 hybrid cars at Brussels Motor Show 2012
1.5. Toyota Auris hybrid made in the UK for global markets and the new 7 seat Prius hybrid car
1.6. Ex factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2012-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
2.1. Boeing fuel cell aircraft trial
2.2. The anatomy of a pure electric vehicle
2.3. A hybrid electric vehicle, the Orion VII bus with BAE Systems HybridriveTM powertrain
2.4. Greenline 33 hybrid boat with 7kW electric motor
2.5. Bicycle hub motor rotor left and stator right.
2.6. Axial flux in-wheel motor driving a bicycle and a propeller.
2.7. 60/15 kW Chorus Meshcon motor
2.8. Protean in-wheel motor for on-road vehicles
2.9. Mine resistant ambush protected – All Terrain Vehicle MATV
2.10. MATV structure
2.11. Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mild hybrids in red, plug-in hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green
2.12. Frazer Nash Namir
2.13. Number of EV manufacturers worldwide in 2001
2.14. Percent of operations that were profitable in 2001 between manufacturing and service
2.15. Percent of manufacturing operations that were profitable in 2001 by type of vehicle
2.16. Percent of service businesses that were profitable in 2001 by type of service
2.17. Manufacturers of electric vehicles in 2011-12 globally by type of vehicle, with cars including golf cars and light industrial/ commercial including buses and trucks.
2.18. Global electric vehicle manufacturing business in $billion at ex-factory price 2012-2022
2.19. Basic breakeven curve
2.21. V curve of maximum enduring profitability with size of business
2.22. Steep V curve for dairy companies in 1974
2.23. V curve for electric heavy industrial vehicles such as forklifts
2.24. V curve for electric buses
2.25. V curve for electric car manufacture.
2.26. V curve for Golf Car and motorised caddy
2.27. V curve for mobility vehicles for the disabled
2.28. V curve for two wheel and allied Light Electric Vehicles LEVs
2.29. V curve for supercapacitors
2.31. Silicon photovoltaics experience curve
2.32. Experience curve for electricity production
2.34. Frequency of learning rates in 156 studies
2.35. Boston matrix as a predictor
2.36. Typical figures used by BCG in the Boston matrix
4.1. KION Linde and Still brand hybrid electric forklifts
5.1. Polaris Ranger leisure EV
6.1. Ford Focus planned for 2013 as shown at the 2012 Brussels Motor Show.
6.2. Honda EVs at Brussels Motor Show 2012
6.3. Toyota position in Boston matrix for electric vehicles (hybrid and pure electric) globally
6.4. Sales by Business Segment (FY 2011, Consolidated Basis)
6.5. Toyota global technology vision
6.6. Toyota Lexus CT 200, RX450 and GS 450 hybrid cars at Brussels Motor Show 2012
6.7. Toyota Auris hybrid made in the UK for global markets and the new 7 seat Prius hybrid car
10.1. Bnteau family sea-going motor sailer
10.2. Lotus Engineering cutaway hybrid Evora 414Evolution exhibit
