Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
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The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.60% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.72%, which is forecast to rise to 1.90% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 6.3% in 2009, followed by forecast 0.1% growth in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.6% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption fell from 198,000b/d in 1990 to a low of 138,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated 164,000b/d in 2009. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 11.5bcm in 2009 to around 14.8bcm in 2014 – implying that net gas imports will reach 12.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 128,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 11.5bcm to 18.6bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Hungary holds ninth place just behind the Czech Republic in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place with Croatia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. There is a chance that the Caspian states will break free of Hungary and pull clear. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan and Slovenia. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.


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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Hospitality 

After a significant downturn in 2009, data for the first two months of 2010 show a recovery in the hospitality sector, with the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments up by 3.3% y-oy. Tourist nights by international visitors increased by nearly 6% y-o-y, but nights by domestic residents only went up by 1.3% y-o-y. Although tourist nights by German arrivals -- an important source market -- showed negative growth y-o-y, nights spent by tourists from Austria and Italy were rose strongly. In 2009, the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by 8.4% y-o-y, with tourist nights by international visitors falling by 10.0%. Nights by domestic residents fell slightly less, by about 7% y-o-y. Tourist nights by German arrivals were down by a 10% y-o-y, while the number of British tourist overnight stays fell by 22% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate was 47% in 2009, compared with nearly 48% the previous year.

Forecast Scenario

Largely due to the recent pickup in growth in foreign tourist arrivals, we have raised our growth forecast for visitors to 3.2% y-o-y in 2010. We also expect growth in arrivals to accelerate slightly in 2011, although further weakness is anticipated over the forecast period. The short-term forecast is based on economic recovery in Hungary’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, which is expected to tentatively emerge from recession this year and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011, as well as Romania and Slovakia, which are also expected to record moderate growth in 2010, accelerating in 2011. While volatility across Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets will likely remain pronounced in the short term, our forecast for the Hungarian forint is for further appreciation, which will restrict growth in tourist arrivals.

Malev Hungarian Airlines

The national flag carrier, Malév Hungarian Airlines, reported a considerable loss of HUF24.4bn (US$130mn) in 2009, compared with a HUF14.5bn (US$77mn) loss in 2008 - but the airline remarkably increased its passenger numbers by an 6% y-o-y to 3.3mn people. After lengthy negotiations, the state reacquired a majority 95% ownership of Malév in February 2010. The strategic thinking appears to be that government ownership will guarantee financial stability for the airline while an intensive restructuring programme continues.
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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Commercial Banking Report Q4 2010
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.

The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.

Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investors Service’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
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Browse the complete Report on : Hungary Real Estate Report Q4 2010


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In mid-2010, BMI’s in-country sources in Hungary indicated that they are looking for a fairly sharp recovery in rental rates over the next year or so. After the grim conditions that protagonists in the Hungarian commercial Real Estate sector have endured over the last two years or so, such an outcome would be a major change.
However, it is not an outcome that we expect. A part of the problem is that any economic growth that takes place over the medium-term will likely be driven by net exports – particularly, to Germany and within Hungary’s automotive sector. Spending by households is constrained by rising unemployment and a retrenchment following the debt-funded consumption prior to mid-2008. Retail sales have been falling consistently for the last three years and are likely to contract further. The government is committed to fiscal austerity as a part of its Stand-By Agreement with the IMF. Corporations are restructuring their balance sheets and, collectively, are not in a position to invest heavily.
These negatives will outweigh positives such as: an improvement in the political environment, the return of Hungarian financial markets to stability, and the reduction in official interest rates to record low levels. Information provided to us by our in-country sources in our first interviews – which took place at the beginning of the year – suggests that vacancy rates in the office sub-sector are very high in both Budapest and Györ. New office space is not being absorbed, as tenants tend to prefer to renegotiate existing leases rather than to move. We assume that conditions are similarly difficult in the retail and industrial subsectors. Office rents have fallen over the last year or so. This has contributed to a fall in yields – although not to the levels that were prevailing in 2008 or earlier. While we do not share the optimism of our in-country sources, we accept that much of the adjustments to rents, yields and capital values in Hungary have already taken place. Accordingly, we look for yields to track sideways in the 2011-14 forecast period.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. The questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues for actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, over both the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights to be gleaned by comparing the real estate sector of a country with its regional peers?
In Q3 we introduced a very substantial improvement to our reports. We incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology section of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data through a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.


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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Petrochemicals Report Q4 2010

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Fiscal austerity measures in the eurozone and the effects of the sovereign debt crisis have dashed hopes that exports will help revive the Hungarian petrochemicals industry, according to BMI’s latest Hungary Petrochemicals Report.
Retail sales data paint a particularly bleak picture on the outlook for private household consumption, suggesting a sharp slowdown in plastics end-markets. Investment activity also looks set to suffer through 2010, while construction output also continuing to fall.
Consequently, the decline in domestic demand for petrochemicals is likely to be broad-based affecting all product chains and will remain subdued well into 2011. This was confirmed by Q110 petrochemicals sales figures for petrochemicals producer MOL which showed that despite a 23% rise in HDPE output and a 5% rise in the value of total sales, its level of sales in Hungary fell 3% y-o-y. The LDPE segment was particularly weak, leading to a 9% decline in output. Consequently, the weak recovery observed in Q309 appeared be in reverse in the following two quarters and the effects of fiscal austerity packages and sovereign debt crises in Europe are likely to make matters more difficult in the months ahead.
On the upside, exports may be lifted by the weakness of the forint amid low investor confidence. This should help give the industry something of an edge against Czech and Romanian competitors in the important German market. The forint is forecast to depreciate against the euro by 7.4% in 2010 and 4.8% in 2011 helping to keep Hungarian export prices down in euros. While base effects will be a key factor mitigating the pace of the contraction in the country’s petrochemicals industry over the coming quarters, we maintain our core view that Hungary is set to enter a protracted period of low growth.
The domestic market, which absorbs around 30% of total petrochemicals output, is arguably in a worse state. Hungary's Central Statistical Office reported a 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop in retail sales in May on a calendar-adjusted basis compared with a 4.0% fall the previous month. This constitutes the 39th straight month in which retail sales have declined. The most recent data continues to support our view that household consumption will remain weak as the private sector continues to focus on deleveraging. We believe the current trend could continue through H210 with private consumption set to remain weak over the medium term. This will in turn impact badly on the Hungarian petrochemicals market. The construction industry is set to stagnate in 2010 after shrinking over 11% in 2009, thereby undermining domestic PVC and PE sales. Likewise, sales for local carmakers will be depressed well into 2010, impacting adversely on PP demand.

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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Autos Report Q4 2010

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New car registrations in Hungary fell 28% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June. However, the decrease is less severe than in other months, comparing with declines of over 50% y-o-y nearly every month between January 2009 and April 2010.
The falls can be attributed to the lack of a scrappage scheme in Hungary. Such incentives have helped auto industries in other European countries to recover.
The president of the Hungarian Vehicle Importers Association, Peter Erdelyi, expects 2010 sales figures to come in at least equal to 2009, The Budapest Times reported. However, Erdelyi offered the caveat that the economy would have to pick up and banks resume lending for this to happen. BMI takes a more pessimistic view, forecasting a 24.3% y-o-y drop in sales in 2010 to just over 63,657 units. Given the obstacles faced by Hungary's economy – which is dealing with its biggest challenges since its transition from communism in the early 1990s – BMI does not expect sales to achieve pre-crisis levels by the end of the forecast period.
On a more positive note, while the winding down of clunker plans will remove a key boost for exports, demand will eventually return as the global economy recovers. In an encouraging sign, Audi Hungaria's Gyor plant produced a total of 428,708 engines in Q110, with a 36% y-o-y rise in car production to 10,354 units, registering a 43% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in engine production – figures that are comparable to pre-crisis levels. Audi has focused extensively on cost reductions and increased productivity, which has yielded the group a strong net liquidity of EUR9.3bn leaving it much better placed than most of its regional counterparts at the end of this period of flux.
Meanwhile, in what BMI sees as part of the German parts suppliers long term strategy, Robert Bosch has announced plans to also invest EUR22mn (US$27.9mn) to set up a production unit at its existing facility in Miskolc, north east Hungary. The firm is reported to have invested HUF14bn (US$63.7mn) in Hungary last year, and with new investment still coming in BMI believes Hungary may become a major production base for Bosch in the CEE region. This announcement follows reports that this is part of a larger relocation of other plants to Hungary, namely the Welsh Miskin plant and an Australian testing facility. This would suggest that Hungary is becoming a viable long term option for parts manufacturers, who tend to follow larger CBU facilities. We believe its optimism for Hungary is not unfounded, however. Its Robert Bosch Energy and Body Systems units make starters, drive shafts and windshield washer systems, which together brought the company EUR389mn (US$495mn) in revenue last year, compared with EUR202mn (US$256.8mn) in 2008.
BMI expects it will take time for production to recover – and the road ahead for manufacturers could be bumpy. Although we forecast a slight rise in vehicle production in 2010, it will not be until 2011 that a more resilient recovery is apparent. Thereafter growth should pick up, especially towards the end of the forecast period, and there is a growing trend of a slowing collapse. We anticipate production rising to 423,702 units by 2014, versus an estimated output of 272,127 units in 2009.

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Browse the complete Report on : Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010


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The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.61% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn b/d in 2001 will have risen to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.47mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bcm, with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2010 is an estimated 1.64%, which is forecast to rise to 1.89% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.
Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.1% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.8% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption reached an estimated 165,000b/d in 2010. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2010 to around 13.8bcm in 2014 – implying that net gas imports will reach 11.8bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 130,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 10.5bcm to 17.5bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Hungary now shares 10th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds 13th place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect nearterm progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.

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Browse the complete Report on : Hungary Insurance Report Q4 2010


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Writing in July 2010, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2009. According to figures published by the regulator and the trade association, total premiums in 2009 amounted to HUF825.18bn. This included non-life premiums of HUF414.11bn and life premiums of HUF411.07bn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be HUF916.26bn, HUF550.52bn and HUF365.74bn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise very marginally from 1.62% of GDP in 2009 to 1.63% in 2014. We also expect that life density will remain unchanged at about US$200 per capita over the forecast period. BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Hungary is 57.0 out of 100.0
The results for H110 posted by Vienna Insurance Group, Allianz, Generali and other major crossborder groups who have focused on Central and Eastern Europe were, as of late July 2010, yet to be published. We expect, though, that they will show that conditions – in both the non-life and the life segments – have remained difficult throughout much of the region this year. In Hungary, for instance, the 12% contraction in life premiums in 2009 followed a similar-sized reduction in the previous year. At this stage, we are looking for the life segment to shrink further in 2010. In terms of gross written premiums, both of the major segments of Hungary’s insurance sector are about the same size as they were in 2006.


Issues to Watch

Pricing In The Motor Insurance Lines
The weakness of CMTPL and CASCO premiums in 2009 implies that even Allianz, which accounts for nearly 40% of CMTPL premiums written in Hungary, lacks pricing power. If Hungary’s economy weakens further through 2010, the slide in non-life premiums could accelerate.


Investment Earnings

Relative to their peers in other countries across Central and Southern Europe, Hungarian insurers are highly exposed to volatility in local bond markets, whether as a result of problems that are specific to Hungary or as a result of contagion.


Rationalisation

There is a long-tail of small insurance companies in Hungary. Operating conditions may be such that some of these groups rethink their commitment to the market.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


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Browse the complete Report on : Hungary Food and Drink Report Q4 2010


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Since establishing itself as a fairly high-spending and business-friendly market for Western food, drink and retail companies up until 2006-2007, Hungary has lost major ground to the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia in the food and drink sector. With the Hungarian food and drink industry already fairly well developed, and lacking scope for major long-term growth – especially given the modest population of about 10mn - established multinational companies are likely to continue cutting spending in Hungary in favour of markets with stronger medium- and long-term growth visibility.


Headline Industry Data


2010 per capita food consumption: +2.18%; forecast to 2014: +20.97%
2010 alcoholic drinks sales: +0.86%; forecast to 2014: +24.42%
2010 soft drinks sales: +2.47%; forecast to 2014: +21.07%
2010 mass grocery retail sales: +3.15%; forecast to 2014: +26.49%


Key Company Trends

Looking Abroad for Growth – Although it posted a 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in its sales revenues for FY09/10 (ending March), dropping to HUF24bn, leading Hungarian spirits producer and distributor Zwack Unicum took some comfort from the fact that exports outperformed its domestic markets. To this extent sales were down by a lower margin of 8% y-o-y in this subsector. Exports are likely to continue taking greater strategic importance to the company, bearing in mind that Zwack is already strongly placed domestically, and that the Hungarian alcoholic drinks market is among Central Europe's most mature. Long-term growth is, therefore, likely to be increasingly driven by foreign markets, where Zwack can leverage off its strong brand portfolio. Key regional frontier markets like Romania should provide promising long-term upsides.

Key Risks to Outlook

Economic Weakness – Restocking of inventories, positive base effects, and a poor showing for imports relative to exports delivered most of the improvement on the 4.0% y-o-y contraction witnessed in the last quarter of 2009. Going forward, while we believe that Hungary's economy is on the road to recovery, with real GDP forecast to expand by 1.1%, Hungary's short-to-medium term macroeconomic outlook remains far from sanguine. Beyond this year, we reiterate that Hungary will underperform both its historical trend average through to 2014, as well as its peers in Central Europe, due to cuts in government consumption, weak consumer demand and limited credit availability. Such factors, in addition to the falling population numbers (as well as population ageing), will hamper the development of the premium foods and drinks segments, along with higher volume uptakes. If the performance of the Hungarian economy is worse than currently expected, our forecasts will have to be adjusted accordingly.


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