Browse the complete Report on:  Croatia Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Tourism Overview
Foreign tourism to Croatia has been poor in recent years, with growth in arrivals of 1% and -1% year-onyear (y-o-y) in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Data for January-April 2010 show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals was down by 2% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by nearly 12% y-o-y. Of the Croatia’s key European source markets, only Slovenia provided positive y-o-y growth in arrivals over the four-month period. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by about 6% compared with the corresponding period in 2009. What is particularly noticeable this year are the sharp movements in the monthly data for foreign tourism, with arrivals down by 24% y-o-y in January but rising by 23% y-o-y in March.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector recorded a weak performance in 2008 and 2009 in terms of the total number of tourist nights. In the first four months of 2010, tourist nights fell by 4.5% y-o-y, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 1.3% and 10.7% respectively. Domestic tourist nights also fell relatively sharply last year. In regards to the key source markets, although Slovenia showed buoyant growth of over 20% y-o-y in tourist nights over January-April, nights attributed to German and Austrian tourists were down by approximately 3% and 10% y-o-y respectively.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Our forecast for growth in foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 has been edged down marginally this quarter to 2% y-o-y, although growth in arrivals though is anticipated to pick up slightly in 2011. These forecasts are based on a mild economic recovery in major foreign source markets, with the eurozone emerging from recession in 2010 and growth improving to 1.6% in 2011. During the summer tourism season, we also expect appreciatory pressures on the Croatian kuna to pick up. That said, short-term appreciation will be modest. Our forecast exchange rate for the kuna against the euro for end of 2011 also shows slight appreciation compared with 2010. This is likely to act as a constraint on growth in foreign arrivals from the eurozone.
Air Passenger Traffic
Following a 12% y-o-y fall in international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers in 2009, traffic remained weak in Q110, with numbers down by 11% y-o-y. During the first five months of 2010 at Zagreb Airport – the main international airport in Croatia – passenger traffic was poor, falling by 7% y-oy, after declining by 6% in 2009, although the downturn has eased since the beginning of this year.
Croatia Airlines
Weaker tourism took its toll on the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines in 2009, with the airline recording a 6% annual fall in traffic to 1.75mn passengers. This followed relatively strong growth in the previous two years of 9% y-o-y each. The airline launched a direct, three times a week service between Zagreb and the Greek capital Athens in June 2010.
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Original Source : – Croatia Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on: United Kingdom Tourism Report Q4 2010
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A great number of visitors will be travelling the UK to attend or be a part of the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics in London. Although tourism in 2012 will increase due to the amount of people from around the world who will attend the games, tourism arrivals are also forecast to increase following the events. The ‘legacy effect’ of the games, thanks to the media exposure and publicity associated with the Olympics - 3.9bn people watched the 2000 Olympics in Sydney - can last for up to a decade following the event. According to research by the national tourism agency VisitBritain, VisitLondon and Oxford Economics, for the post-games period of 2013-2017, a legacy effect worth GBP1.27bn is forecast for the UK and of GBP0.88bn for London.

After dropping in 2009 to US$27.26mn, tourist expenditure is beginning to climb back up in 2010, reaching an estimated US$28.38mn by the end of the year. BMI forecasts expenditure by tourists in the UK to continue to increase, totalling nearly US$40mn in 2014. Also forecast to increase is tourism expenditure’s contribution to the UK’s GDP. In 2010, tourism expenditure is forecast to account for 2.01% of GDP. This is expected to increase to 2.40%, by the end of our forecast period. Direct industry employment, which in 2009 stood at 1.43mn, is forecast to increase as a result of the 2012 Olympics.

Europe is the UK’s main source market for inbound tourism. The region is forecast to account for 24.43mn tourists in 2010, and this is predicted to increase to 30.98mn by 2014. In second and third place are the Asia Pacific region and North America. In 2010, 4.37mn tourists are expected to visit the UK from North America, while 3.40mn will come from Asia Pacific. By 2014, Asia Pacific and North American arrivals are forecast to be level at about 4.45mn inbound arrivals each. In terms of individual countries, the US was in the first place in 2007, but has since been overtaken by France, which is forecast to provide 4.15mn tourists by 2014.

After decreasing in 2009 and 2010, international tourism expenditure by UK residents is forecast to increase from US$86.44mn in 2011 to US$110.51mn in 2014. In line with this forecast, the amount of total departures by residents is also forecast to increase, from 68.69mn in 2010 to a forecast 78.42mn in 2014. The majority of UK residents visit Europe, with an estimated 53.23mn heading to the region in 2009 and a forecast 58.85mn travelling to Europe in 2014. In distant second and third place are North America and Asia Pacific. In 2009, 4.57mn UK residents are estimated to have travelled to North America, while 4.09mn travelled to the Asia Pacific region. Out of the two regions, Asia Pacific will have experienced the most growth by 2014, with 6.56mn UK residents making it their destination of choice, and only 4.66mn going to North America.

The UK hotel industry is forecast to grow. Despite the recession, and for some hoteliers because of it, operators are expanding in the UK. The UK’s largest hotel operator, Whitbread, plans to open 29 hotels in 2010 and steadily increasing that number thereafter. A third Four Seasons hotel is scheduled to open in 2014 in London and the budget hotel chain Travelodge is building 13 new hotels in and around the UK’s leading cities, with four in the London area.
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Original Source : – United Kingdom Tourism Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Japan Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to 6.66mn after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals are forecast to rebound in 2010 to 8.45mn. The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased from 2001 to 2007. Tourist arrivals by air are by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007 compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009, leisure arrivals totalled 4.65mn, while business arrivals came to 1.24mn, both falling from 2008 but forecast to pick up in 2010. BMI forecasts that the number of leisure arrivals will continue to grow for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 8.44mn by 2014, while business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.74mn.

Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and plans to ease visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Under the current regulations, to come to Japan as an individual a Chinese traveller must have an annual income of more than CNY250,000 (US$36,600), which is a large sum for most Chinese workers, so visitors tend to come as part of a tour group. Under the new regulations, Japan is expected lower the threshold of annual income to CNY60,000 (US$8,780).

As well as appointing a new commissioner, the Japanese Tourism Agency (JTA) has launched a new slogan and logo. The Japan: Endless Discovery slogan is part of the country’s revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The latest logo depicts white Japanese cherry blossom against a red sun background.

Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to decline over the coming years. The Japanese government’s individual expenditure has risen since it came in at US$15.64mn in 2001 but is estimated to peak at US$22.11 in 2009. We forecast individual government tourism expenditure to decline to US$19.81mn by 2014. The government’s collective tourism expenditure is also expected to decrease during the forecast period. In 2001, collective expenditure came in at US$12.30mn and peaked at US$17.32mn in 2009. From 2010, BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, reaching US$15.43mn by 2014.

There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan’s air industry has been dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country’s expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, 53 miles (85km) north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for low-budget airlines to enter the market. Ibaraki only offers two flights per day so far, one to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines and another to Kobe by Skymark Airlines. ANA is considering launching a low-cost carrier to take advantage of the new runway at Haneda Airport in Tokyo.
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Browse the complete Report on: Hungary Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Hospitality 

After a significant downturn in 2009, data for the first two months of 2010 show a recovery in the hospitality sector, with the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments up by 3.3% y-oy. Tourist nights by international visitors increased by nearly 6% y-o-y, but nights by domestic residents only went up by 1.3% y-o-y. Although tourist nights by German arrivals -- an important source market -- showed negative growth y-o-y, nights spent by tourists from Austria and Italy were rose strongly. In 2009, the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by 8.4% y-o-y, with tourist nights by international visitors falling by 10.0%. Nights by domestic residents fell slightly less, by about 7% y-o-y. Tourist nights by German arrivals were down by a 10% y-o-y, while the number of British tourist overnight stays fell by 22% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate was 47% in 2009, compared with nearly 48% the previous year.

Forecast Scenario

Largely due to the recent pickup in growth in foreign tourist arrivals, we have raised our growth forecast for visitors to 3.2% y-o-y in 2010. We also expect growth in arrivals to accelerate slightly in 2011, although further weakness is anticipated over the forecast period. The short-term forecast is based on economic recovery in Hungary’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, which is expected to tentatively emerge from recession this year and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011, as well as Romania and Slovakia, which are also expected to record moderate growth in 2010, accelerating in 2011. While volatility across Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets will likely remain pronounced in the short term, our forecast for the Hungarian forint is for further appreciation, which will restrict growth in tourist arrivals.

Malev Hungarian Airlines

The national flag carrier, Malév Hungarian Airlines, reported a considerable loss of HUF24.4bn (US$130mn) in 2009, compared with a HUF14.5bn (US$77mn) loss in 2008 - but the airline remarkably increased its passenger numbers by an 6% y-o-y to 3.3mn people. After lengthy negotiations, the state reacquired a majority 95% ownership of Malév in February 2010. The strategic thinking appears to be that government ownership will guarantee financial stability for the airline while an intensive restructuring programme continues.
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Original Source : Hungary Tourism Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Czech Republic Tourism Report Q4 2010
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Tourism Overview 

After sharp falls in foreign tourist arrivals in the Czech hospitality sector in the early part of 2009, there has been a continuing improving trend in recent quarters. Although foreign guest arrivals declined by 8.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009, compared with a 2.6% fall in domestic tourism, the rate of decline in foreign arrivals narrowed to -3.5% y-o-y in Q409. Data for Q110 show a turnaround in foreign tourism, with a nearly 3% y-o-y increase in the number of foreign guests, although domestic guest numbers fell compared with Q109.

Hospitality 

In 2009, total overnight stays by foreign and domestic tourists were down by 6% y-o-y, with foreign and domestic tourist nights declining by 10.5% and 1.3% y-o-y respectively. In Q110, the hospitality sector recorded a rather weak performance, although non-resident tourism showed promising signs of improvement. Total foreign and domestic tourist overnight stays amounted to about 6.9mn in Q110, down just over 1% y-o-y. Of these overnight stays, foreign tourist nights edged up by 0.5% y-o-y but nights by domestic residents declined by nearly 3% y-o-y. Total guest numbers rose by 0.5% y-o-y to over 2.2mn at all accommodation establishments, driven by positive growth in the number of foreign guests, while domestic guest numbers fell y-o-y. Although foreign tourist spa nights also showed signs of an improving trend, they were still down by 3% y-o-y in Q110. In terms of the Czech Republic’s key source markets, the number of guests from Germany, Italy and the UK all declined y-o-y, although arrivals from Germany fell only slightly. The number of visitors from Russia and Poland increased by 4.5% and 1% y-o-y respectively.

Forecast Scenario

Our growth forecast of 2% y-o-y for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 remains unchanged. BMI estimates that there was a 9% y-o-y fall in arrivals in 2009. We anticipate a slight acceleration in growth in 2011 to 4%. This forecast scenario is partly based on economic recovery in the Czech Republic’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, where growth is forecast at 1.0% and 1.4% - downgraded from 1.6% - in 2010 and 2011 respectively; the UK; the US and Russia, with the latter two forecast to achieve relatively strong economic growth over the same period. A factor likely to restrict growth in arrivals over the next few years is the exchange rate, with the koruna expected to resume its broad uptrend, particularly against the euro. We hold to our view that the koruna will appreciate to CZK24.500/EUR by the end of 2010.

Czech Airlines

Domestic carrier Czech Airlines (CSA) recorded a considerable loss of CZK3.7bn (US$198mn) in 2009, with a 3% y-o-y fall in passenger numbers to 5.46mn. The company has a three-year recovery plan approved by the government, with the aim to cut the loss by CZK600mn in 2010. Two of the points in the plan are further sales of assets and the separation of more activities into subsidiaries. CSA reported a recovery in scheduled passenger numbers in the first five months of 2010, with traffic increasing by 4.4% y-o-y. Press reports also indicate improved y-o-y financial results for Q110.

Prague Ruzyne Airport

Following a decline of nearly 8% y-o-y in total passenger traffic at Prague Ruzyne Airport in 2009, including an equivalent fall in international passenger numbers, there are tentative signs of recovery at the airport. Data for period January-May 2010 show a 0.1% y-o-y increase in total passenger traffic to 4mn. Although international traffic was up by 0.4% y-o-y to just under 4mn, domestic passenger numbers continued to fall, declining by 19% y-o-y.
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Original Source : Czech Republic Tourism Market
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