Browse the complete Report on:  Singapore Retail Report Q4 2010


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The Q410 BMI Singapore Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated SGD41.54bn (US$29.99bn) in 2010 to SGD47.11bn (US$35.42bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Singapore’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$190.5bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 5.1mn to 5.2mn over the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$37,820 in 2010 to US$45,741 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$15,656 in 2010 to US$20,240 by the end of the forecast period.
The Singapore Department of Statistics’ figures show that median monthly household income from work among all resident households increased by 13% from SGD4,380 (US$3,068) in 2007 to SGD4,950 (US$3,469) in 2008. The number of households in higher income brackets also increased, with the proportion of employed households earning at least SGD7,000 (US$4,900) per month increasing from 33% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.
Visitor arrivals to Singapore declined by 4.3% y-o-y in 2009 to 9.7mn, with the STB stating that its previous target of 17mn visitor arrivals and SGD30bn (US$21bn) in tourism receipts in 2015 will be a challenge. However, with the opening of the World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands resorts, the STB is targeting 11.5-12.5mn visitor arrivals and SGD17.5-18.5bn in tourism receipts for 2010. The year started well, with visitor arrivals in January 2010 up by 17.6% y-o-y to 908,000; and rising by 24.2% to 857,000 in February, the highest total ever recorded for the month.
BMI forecasts the over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector to be worth US$137mn in 2010 and that sales will increase by more than 19% to US$164mn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by 11%, from US$3.26bn in 2010 to US$3.62bn by the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Singapore’s market share of 1.1% in 2010 is forecast to fall to 0.8% by 2014.


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Original Source : – Singapore Retail Market
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Browse the complete Report on : Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
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The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.81% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn b/d in 2001 is set to reach 27.15mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapore’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 2.02%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.03% by 2014. There is no gas production in Singapore. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Singapore’s real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI to be 7.0%, followed by an average annual increase of 5.0% in 2010-2014. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.15mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 10.0bcm in 2010 to 12.7bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 966,000b/d to 1.33mn b/d (+30.48%), with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.39mn b/d to 1.55mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 10.0bcm in 2010 to a possible 18.2bcm by 2019, driven by power generation requirements. LNG imports are expected to commence in 2013 and reach 5.0bcm per annum through the initial import terminal. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Singapore holds seventh place above Japan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks equal 12th (alongside Hong Kong) in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. Singapore ranks equal fourth with Japan in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point behind Australia, but three clear of South Korea, and seems likely to retain its current position.
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Browse the complete Report on : Singapore Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010

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Singapore’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, mobile handsets and AV products, is projected to be worth around US$3.4bn in 2010. This is expected to increase to US$3.9bn by 2014, at a 2010-2014 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%, which is slower than in the preceding five years.
Strong sales of smartphones in Q110 underlined the opportunity for high-end product innovation to drive revenues growth in the mature Singaporean market. In the AV category, vendors will play to consumers’ enthusiasm for new technologies with releases of LED, 3D and internet-enabled TV sets.
Computers
Computers accounted for around 71% of Singapore’s consumer electronics spending in 2009. BMI forecasts Singapore computer hardware sales of US$2.4bn in 2010, up from US$2.2bn in the previous year. With government projects helping to sustain the market, CAGR for the 2010-2014 period will be around 4%, with most consumer growth driven by multimedia and entertainment notebooks and netbooks as second household PCs.
AV
Singapore’s domestic video, audio and gaming device market is forecast at US$689mn in 2010, with low single-digit growth from 2009. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2% between 2010 and 2014 to a value of US$752mn. Video applications will provide revenue growth at a slower rate due to price erosion, but product innovation will support sales. The first internet-enabled TV sets appeared on the market in H110 and the Singapore Media Authority plans to launch 3D TV trials by the end of the year.
Mobile Handsets
Smartphones were the main handset market driver in Q110, thanks to local sales of Apple’s iPhone, the BlackBerry Bold and other popular models. Total Singaporean market handset sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 6% to US$355mn in 2014, with the market driven mainly by replacements as penetration is already above 180%. Smartphones accounted for above 70% of operator handset sales in Q110, with Android smartphones expected to be a key competitive battleground in H210.

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Browse the complete Report on : Singapore Autos Report Q4 2010

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BMI has revised downwards the forecast for Singapore's 2010 vehicle sales again at the mid-point of the year, as sales of small cars below 1.6-litres are still far below the trend for previous years. Our revised forecast for new vehicle registrations in 2010 is for a decline of 18% year-on-year (y-o-y), to a total of 88,938 registrations. The base effect should kick in more strongly from 2011, alongside a gradual acceleration in economic growth to respectable levels for a developed state in 2011-2014. Sales for H110 are still low at 32,334 units, which is 34.8% lower than H109. This is very much out of alignment with our expectations for a strong surge in GDP growth from 2% in 2009 to 12% in 2010, but we believe there is a more industry specific reason behind this, as consumers shift between vehicle segments.
Singapore's motorcycle and scooter market registered an uptick in April, as drivers previously lured to the small car segment started to find the cost too much to cope with and returned to two-wheelers. An increase in the cost of a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) to buy a car has risen 32% since March, compared with just 13% for motorcycles. The small car segment, excluding taxis, fell 47% in H110. The motorcycle segment has been declining since 2006 as more entry level cars have appeared on the market, offering more comfort and space for a similar price. In the January to June period, however, sales of twowheelers were down just 4.3%.
The market's decline is still reflected in Singapore's 11th place in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 48.5 from a possible 100. Singapore, along with Thailand, has the highest number of free trade agreements completed for any Asian market. However, in industry terms, the lack of domestic production facilities and the imposition of vehicle quotas which restrict potential sales growth weigh on the market's overall rating. Nevertheless, Singapore has climbed three places since our first ratings were produced.
Although overall market sales do not reflect our bullish view on the Singapore economy, a breakdown of car sales by brand for H110 shows that growth has been largely recorded by premium brands, which is in keeping with higher GDP growth. BMW has leapt from seventh place at the end of 2009 to second, while conversely, Honda Motor has dropped from second to fifth as its sales for H110 fell 66%. Toyota Motor still leads the market at the half-way point, despite a 33% drop in sales.


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Browse the complete Report on - Singapore Real Estate Report Q4 2010

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Singapore’s economy is recovering strongly from the global downturn, driven largely by a resurgent manufacturing sector, a sharp pick-up in export demand and the spill-over effects into trade-related services industries. Singapore – as an export-oriented economy – was hit early and fairly hard by the economic downturn. Now, it is recovering strongly once more.
Our in-country sources, whom we interviewed in early February 2010 and again in July, indicate that the various sub-sectors have already adjusted to the global financial crisis. Rents and yields have fallen sharply in the office sub-sector. Conversely, rents (and yields) have already started to rise quite strongly in the retail sub-sector. In the industrial sub-sector, there was a sharp lift in yields – from very low levels – in 2008 and 2009.
In short, the overall pace of recovery is such that demand for space is picking up quite sharply, notwithstanding that vacancy rates remain quite high. Our in-country sources suggest that there should be a rise in rental rates of 3-5% in 2011, in all sub-sectors. This may be overly conservative. Over the medium-term, we expect that yields will adjust to the ‘normal’ levels that were prevailing prior to the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This implies that office yields will fall slowly, while retail and industrial yields should rise.
Key Features Of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 we have introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. We have incorporated data and qualitative observations provided to us by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries we survey. As a result we have gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. We have also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, we have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. We gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with our in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from our sources has caused us to make significant revisions to our forecasts for 2011-2014. We asked our sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. We explain their answers in the Forecast Scenarios.


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Browse the complete Report on - Singapore Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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Singapore’s construction industry has shown excellent performance so far this year. Backed by determined government stimulus efforts the sector is outperforming global growth rates thanks to the country’s unique business environment. For 2010, BMI estimates that the industry will be valued at US$11.66bn. This has been revised down from US$12.97bn last quarter as a result of changes to official figures. Forecasts have increased however on the back of strong performance with industry value set to rise to US$17.64bn by the end of the forecast period in 2014.

Forecasts were based on:

The official statistics agency down rating of its estimates for the construction industry from 2006 onwards. This has had the effect of boosting current growth rates. As a result the industry is showing remarkable resilience moving into 2010. Current estimates indicate 18% year on year growth for the first half of the year.

Major project developments remained thin on the ground. Key news was the move by Sembcorp Industries to strengthen its position in the water infrastructure sector with the completion of a SGD$266mn (US$192mn) acquisition of Cascal, a NYSE-listed water services firm.

The announcement that infrastructure development work was likely to require an increase in immigration to the island state by as much as 100,000 this year. Immigration remains a sensitive issue in the country and as a result the announcement indicates a high level of anticipate demand.

Construction industry growth is forecast to average 9.28% year on year until the end of the forecast period. Infrastructure industry growth is expected to drive growth increasing as a percentage of total construction value from 36% this year to 43% by 2014. The infrastructure sector will almost double from US$5.93bn in 2010 to US$9.90bn by 2014.

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Browse the complete Report on – Singapore Shipping Report Report Q4 2010

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Singapore's position as the world's busiest container terminal was likely to be under threat from Shanghai this year, according to press reports. While Singapore is certainly busy, the rebound in world trade levels has been boosting box handling at Shanghai with particular vigour. Data from port authorities showed that in the second quarter, and for the first time, Shanghai handled more containers than Singapore. Data for the first half showed Singapore still barely ahead, having moved 14.05mn TEUs, versus 13.85mn TEUs at Shanghai.
In our last quarterly report we spoke of Singapore's V-shaped recovery, following the 2009 recession. Three months on, the V-shape has become sharper and more pronounced. Data showing a spectacularly strong performance in Q110 led by manufacturing and exports prompted BMI to raise its 2010 GDP forecast to 12.8%, followed by a dip to 3.3% in 2011 as the restocking effect begins to fade. Across the next five years we are predicting average annual GDP growth of 5.9%, which will provide sustained support for the freight transport sector.
As the world economy gathers pace, the Port of Singapore (POS) is experiencing a significant recovery in tonnage throughput. During the global recession last year, tonnage fell by a sharp 8.4%; now, in view if the strength of Singapore's recovery, we see all of that ground being made up. BMI is predicting POS tonnage will rise by 9.5% this year, with growth continuing into 2011 at the more moderate rate of 4.2%. POS will battle it out with Shanghai for the title of the world's largest container port in 2010. Last year POS box traffic slumped by 13.5%. In 2010 we see positive growth of 9.4%, followed by 5.0% expansion in 2011.
In real terms Singapore's total trade is set to expand by 11.7% this year, after a 10.0% contraction in 2009. After restoring last year's lost ground, we expect Singapore to settle down to rather more moderate trade growth. Average annual trade growth in the next five years will be 6.5%, a little ahead of GDP. This year, export growth will be marginally ahead of imports, but over the five-year time span we expect both to be roughly on a par. In nominal terms, exports will surge by 21.2% this year to US$435.5bn, while imports will be fractionally slower, gaining 21.0% to US$391bn.
On the whole, risks to our Singapore shipping forecasts are evenly balanced, perhaps pointing slightly more now to the downside. The main risk in this sense is that world trade could experience a steeper than expected slowdown in 2011, perhaps propelled by further financial difficulties in Europe or elsewhere - indeed, any sudden event that might undermine still-fragile investor confidence.

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