Showing posts with label Infrastructure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Infrastructure. Show all posts

Browse the complete Report on: Mexico Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
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BMI View: Major developments over the previous quarter in Mexico indicate that investors are cautiously returning to the Mexican infrastructure market. However, the stronger outlook in our revised forecast scenario is closely followed by downside risks that stem from BMI’s core view on weak US consumer demand, which in turn could spell another round of macroeconomic woes for Mexico.
  • The SCT launched the tender for the concession of the Riviera Maya airport after a delay of two years. It is the first greenfield public-private partnership (PPP) in Mexico's airport sector, but interest thus far has been low; understandable given the volatile dynamics still underlying the sector.
  • We highlight the opportunities in the water infrastructure segment, one of the most underinvested in, in recent years. A plethora of new contracts for pipelines, water treatment plants and desalination plants will drive growth in the sector - the main factor for our bullish outlook for the water infrastructure industry.
  • Revised historical data series dating back to 2003 indicate a much more robust construction sector in terms of industry value than previously estimated. Mexico’s construction industry value in 2009 was MXN797bn (US$59bn), compared to the previous estimate of MXN556bn (US$41bn). Low base effects from 2010 will accentuate industry value growth in 2011, which will in turn moderate in 2012 onwards, in line with BMI’s forecasts of a deceleration in gross fixed capital formation real growth.
  • We believe that the government will continue to push through projects in the pipeline and public works contracts spell opportunities for the infrastructure and construction builders in the country, particularly the majors Empresas ICA and IDEAL, which spearhead Mexico’s infrastructure development.
  • A BMI core view is being fully mirrored in Mexico that an increasing number of projects will be going after a limited pool of available capital. Mexico's government has expressed great hopes for infrastructure investments in 2010. However, much of these investments are predicated on getting private capital in the sector. Investor interest is reviving, but the available capital available is dwarfed by the government's ambitions.
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Original Source : – Mexico Infrastructure Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Iraq Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
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Iraq’s infrastructure sector continues to be the main focus of reconstruction efforts in the country. While the electricity sector continues to take centre stage, progress is being made in the transport sector, especially in the railways sector, where tenders are under way for new projects.
In May 2010, the government announced a new target for the electricity sector, to generate 27,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2013. With current nameplate capacity standing at around 15,000MW, this includes almost doubling capacity in three years. This target is ambitious to say the least. The plans revolve around installing the turbines purchased from General Electric (GE) and Siemens in 2009. In an effort to set the ball rolling, tenders have been released for installing 28 of the 72 turbines purchased. The tenders appear to be progressing well, but as always with Iraq, there are concerns over funding for the projects, and smooth running of the tender. Another concern is the ability to exploit the gas reserves, which will be required to power the turbines – this is reliant on bidding rounds for the fields going smoothly and a large deal with Shell to capture flared gas going through.
There is increasing pressure for the government to improve the electricity supply. Soaring temperatures over the summer months have resulted in protests over harsh power rationing imposed to preserve what little electricity is generated. These protests have at times turned violent, and culminated with the Electricity Minister, Karim Wahid offering his resignation in late June. The violence illustrates the continued social unrest in the country, and the ease with which the security risk can escalate, something which is also illustrated by the violence linked to the elections in March 2010.
Although the electricity sector has been the main focus of the infrastructure sector over the past year, reconstruction efforts in the transport sector have been progressing steadily. Eight bidders have been shortlisted for the Baghdad metro project, and plans to expand Baghdad international airport were announced in May 2010. The construction of the Port of Al Faw at Basrah is also progressing. Developments mean that we are anticipating Iraq’s construction industry to post strong growth in 2010. In BMI’s Q310 Iraq Infrastructure Report we are forecasting the construction industry to post real growth of 4.67% year-on-year (y-o-y), to reach a value of IQD6,598bn (US$5.64bn).
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Original Source : – Iraq Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
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Browse the complete Report onUnited States Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
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In 2010, the US construction industry is forecast to emerge from a five-year decline, which reached its trough in 2009 at -9.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Bolstered by the stimulus package, which is due to focus on projects in its second year, the industry is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2010. Although this indicates only minimal growth, this is due to the influence of the still stagnant residential construction sector on the construction industry value. In turn, infrastructure, as a component of construction industry value, is forecast to outperform the sector as a whole, with 2.8% y-o-y growth anticipated for 2010.
- Construction industry value growth is to peak in 2011, as the majority of stimulus funding for projects is due to be disbursed in late 2010 and early 2011.
- Infrastructure is to outperform construction industry over the forecast period.
- Increasing private sector participation presents upside potential beyond 2011.
The US construction industry contracted by 9.9% y-o-y in 2009, which although substantial, was no great shock, being largely in line with BMI’s view for the industry. The figure concluded a five-year contraction in the industry, which has only posted real growth twice in the last nine years, and even then this was flat growth. This historic data illustrates what has been all too obvious on the ground: investment in the sector has been poor. This led the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) to assign US’ infrastructure a D grade, defined as ‘poor’, in March 2009. The association estimates that US$2.2trn of investment is needed in the country’s infrastructure to get it up to scratch.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) otherwise known as the stimulus bill allocated tens of billions of dollars to infrastructure and construction projects in general. While the first half of the package focused on immediate economic measures, the second half is focused on projects, which means funds will filter through to the construction sector in the second half of 2010, therefore creating the biggest impact of industry value in 2011. For this reason we believe the industry will grow at a faster rate in 2011 (2.2% y-o-y) than in 2010 (1.6% y-o-y), the reverse of BMI’s view for the economy in general. Industry value will be created in 2010, driven by some projects which are receiving funds quicker than others – such as roads, a subsector, which we believe will post 4.9% y-o-y growth for the year. However, the majority of the large allocations for the sector, such as high-speed rail and large loan guarantees for power plants, will not translate to industry value creation until 2011 and beyond.
This view is backed up by figures for US construction spending, which, for the first time in over a year posted positive growth in March and April 2010. This indicates that investment is returning to the sector, although it is still only a fragile recovery.
Another observation from the data is that infrastructure spending has been higher than construction spending over the past 18 months. This data aligns with our core view that infrastructure will outperform the construction industry in general over our forecast period. The sector is being driven by stimulus funding. Infrastructure was cited as a crucial element of the package, although in reality the around US$100bn allocated was disappointing. However, it will be enough to drive growth in the sector. A growing number of private concessions in the sector will also create industry value, picking up where the public sector, constrained by tight local budgets, has been forced to leave off. Between 2010 and 2014, infrastructure is forecast to grow by 3.4% on average per year, compared to construction as a whole, which is anticipated to grow by 1.7% on average per year.
The stimulus boost is expected to lose its impact in late 2012-2013 – as the stimulus funds recede, it will be down to the private sector to pick up support for the industry. BMI notes that there is plenty of appetite from the private sector to pick up this mantle in the US. Construction companies have been falling over themselves to tap the US public-private partnership (PPP) sector for infrastructure, drawn in by the sophisticated business environment juxtaposed with a relatively untapped market. There are concerns over whether the US will let them in; however, a growing number of PPPs in the transport sector have been moving forward. If this trend continues, there is upside potential for our longer-term forecast for the industry to sustain growth and move out of the quagmire of the past 10 years.


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Original Source : Infrastructure Market
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Browse the complete Report on : Argentina Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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The main developments in Argentina over the last quarter have been centred on utilities. The Inter- American Development Bank (IADB) approved a 25-year, US$300mn loan to fund a power transmission project in the country (December 2009). The loan will be used for completing the deployment of the 1,220km-long Norte Grande power transmission line. Earlier, in November, President Cristina Fernández, and the Brazilian president (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) entered into an agreement to form a joint venture for the construction of the Garabí dam. The hydro-electric project, with an installed capacity of 2.3GW, will be constructed on the Uruguay river.
The country's construction industry remains mired by the ongoing economic downturn. Construction activity in the country fell by 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November 2009, according to the national statistics agency, Indec. On a seasonally adjusted basis, meanwhile, construction was showed to be down by 0.5% y-o-y. There is no change to our core forecasts for Argentina’s construction industry for the second consecutive quarter. BMI estimates a contraction in the real value of the construction industry of 3.4% in 2009. We also continue to expect an even deeper contraction in 2010, owing to the structurally weak condition of Argentina’s economy and concerns about the viability of the government’s spending plans. Indeed, we anticipate a further downward plunge in real construction sector output in 2010, with - 5.3% growth forecast.
Argentina scores in the low to medium range in our Business Environment ratings, with an overall score of 47.1 out of 100. Four countries score higher in our index (Chile, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico), while only three countries are rated below Argentina. Argentina’s overall score is let down by significant constraints on the Limits to Potential Returns (for which it scores 41.7 out of 100), while it does moderately better (in absolute, but not relative terms) in Risks to the Realisation of Returns – where it scores 59.6 out of 100.
Overall, Argentina scores reasonably well for its Project Finance Ratings, sitting in third place in the region, with a score of 57.9 out of 100, behind Peru and Chile. The Commissioning and Operating rating helps to haul up the overall score, especially on a relative basis, as other countries in the region generally fare poorly for this category. However, the country is let down by some very low scores for the Design & Construction phase, particularly in terms of Inputs and Legal and Regulatory risks, with the current government having shown some worrying policy predilections.

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Browse the complete Report on : Saudi Arabia Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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The outlook for the infrastructure sector in Saudi Arabia is improving, with a slew of project announcements in the first months of 2010. Similarly a number of large-scale utilities projects tendered out in the second half of 2009 have also seen movement in early 2010, adding to confidence in the sector. This has helped to boost growth forecasts for the construction sector again with BMI predicting a yearon- year (y-o-y) increase in 2010 of 6.79%, an improvement of nearly one point on last quarter when it was 5.89%. The industry is estimated to be valued at US$22.48bn for 2010. Growth will continue over the forecast period, but at a lower rate averaging just 2.73% up to 2014 when the industry value will be US$28.09bn.
Major project announcements continued apace this quarter with power projects and airports dominating the news. In April 2010, Saudi Arabia announced plans to spend US$80bn increasing its power generation capacity and transmission network. The deputy minister for electricity predicted that the country's power generation capacity will increase by 20,000 megawatts (MW) in the next decade. Projects such as a 1,730MW independent power project (IPP) awarded to a consortium led by France's GDF Suez are expected to drive this.
The airport sector remained buoyant, with the announcement that the first privately owned airport in Saudi Arabia is to be ready by 2014. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) expects to float a tender in May 2010 for the airport. The build, operate and transfer (BOT) contract for the project will be awarded by the end of 2010 or in the beginning of 2011. The construction of the airport is estimated to cost SAR7-8bn (US$1.87-2.13bn). The airport will be able to handle 8mn passengers per year. Saudi Arabia’s business environment remained near the top f the regional ranking; however, it lost one place falling behind Bahrain this quarter with a score of 58.4 to place it in fourth place. In terms of project finance ratings, the country still has room for improvement ranking sixth place this quarter with a score of 66.2. This is a result of weak contract enforceability scores indicating a lack of confidence that contracts are legally binding. Tied to this the PPP legal framework and corruption need some work to become more transparent.


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Browse the complete Report on: Australia Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: Australia’s infrastructure sector is our top pick of the developed markets we cover, due to strong fundamentals for long-term opportunities and a high level of sophistication in terms of project finance operations and business environment. However, we believe a near-term Chinese slowdown will put a damper on Australia’s real infrastructure and construction industry value growth for the remaining of 2010 and the whole of 2011. Consequently, we have revised down our construction industry forecast for 2011, with real growth of 1.4% now anticipated year-on-year (y-o-y), to reflect this slowdown, but expect upside potential during the latter stage of our forecast period, with annual average construction industry real growth of 3.8% anticipated between 2013 and 2018.
Key factors influencing growth for the next quarter included:
Two factors driving new transportation infrastructure investments are China’s insatiable demand for mining exports and the subsequent demand for freight transport services. However BMI’s anticipation of a slowdown in Chinese economic growth is likely to impact Australian raw materials exports, thereby decreasing the demand for infrastructure. As such we have revised our transport infrastructure forecasts downwards to reflect this deceleration.
The Australian government’s plans to privatise and lease a number of freight transport assets is gaining interest – eg the bidding for the Port of Brisbane. Besides public assets, infrastructure funds have also shown interest in purchasing private infrastructure assets – eg Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB)’s takeover offer of Intoll Group. We believe these major infrastructure funds are looking to gain from the long term potential of Australia’s infrastructure sector.
BMI's new data series for Australia's residential and non-residential building industry value indicate that real growth for the sector's value will moderate significantly in 2011 following a tentative recovery in 2010. Combined with our view that the Australian economy is due for a period of underperformance over the coming year, especially on the back of a correction in real estate valuations, we are raising our concern for industry players in the residential and nonresidential building industry over the shorter term.
Australia was one of the first countries to embark on the public private partnership (PPP) scheme and use private funding to develop infrastructure projects. As a result, it has the most sophisticated market for PPP schemes in the world, according to BMI’s Project Finance Ratings. Australia’s score of 77.2 out of 100 reflects a stable and well organised political system, sophisticated financial infrastructure, a competitive operating environment and a transparent and coherent regulatory environment. For BMI’s Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings, Australia achieved a score of 73.8 out of 100, gaining the top spot in the regional table for developed states. The combination of the country’s sizable growth potential in the infrastructure industry, low risks in its operating environment, and coherent strategy for infrastructure investment gives Australia the best risk/rewards profile for investors among the developed states.

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Browse the complete Report on: Iran Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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Given the increased sanctions pressure on Iran, BMI believes that the country will struggle to maintain momentum on its wide array of infrastructure projects. The key factor undermining performance is the financing difficulties that will be encountered – and are already evident – by state entities planning large transport, construction and energy-related ventures. Though opportunities are vast, many construction, utility and energy groups remain wary of signing contracts with Iranian companies. In this respect, the UN/US/EU backed sanctions have proved increasingly effective in starving the Iranian infrastructure sector of investment.
Nonetheless, there have been a series of developments on key projects over recent months: ! There are plans to expand Iran’s main airports, with Iranian Airports Holding Company looking to attract in excess of US$1bn in investment into the aviation sector. The main ongoing expansion project is the Imam Khomeini airport in Tehran, which is to be tripled in capacity to 20mn passengers a year, before hitting its peak capacity of 90mn passengers a year – a long-term target that appears highly ambitious in the current climate.
The most promising sign of new transport sector development is in the invitation to bid in July on a new transport network that would integrate Qeshm island to the mainland via rail and road and in the unveiling of plans to build four new metro rail lines in the capital.
Privatisation efforts advanced during Q2 2010 when the grain terminal at Imam Khomeini port, transferred to the ownership of the local port operator Kaveh Marine & Port Services in a joint venture with MJ Group of Kenya. This is to be the first stage of a full privatisation of the port, which is close to the Iraq border.
Iran appears to be ramping up its efforts to enrich uranium to the 20% level though 2010, in defiance of the international community. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, announced in late Q210 that Iran had enriched 17 kg of uranium to 20% since beginning work in February 2010.
The deputy energy minister Mohammad Behzad, announced plans, in February 2010, to privatise 20 power plants by September 2010. However, Iran's business environment is defined by opacity and corruption, with poor legal and financial frameworks in place, rendering the fruition of the privatisation significantly doubtful.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Korea Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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Like many of its peers, South Korea is currently on an economic cusp as it wavers between inexorable, self-sustained growth and potential stagnation as stimulus spending winds down. The country’s economy grew by 2.1% in Q110, which was faster than many expected, but a weakening in the construction industry slowed the pace of growth to 1.5% in Q210. Although the drop in the growth rate was not by an alarming amount, it does stoke fears that the economic growth may not yet be self-sufficient and that the winding down of stimulus spending may have been disastrously premature. However, BMI remains bullish on the South Korea’s construction sector in the long-term, with growth of 2.54% expected in 2010 to KRW70,386bn (US$60.28bn), similar to pre-crisis levels.
Recent developments impacting our view include:
New historic data for South Korea's construction industry have prompted a revision in our forecasts for the construction sector and its two subsectors – infrastructure, and residential and non-residential building. Based on these forecasts, infrastructure will continue to outperform, overtaking residential and non-residential building in terms of contribution to overall construction industry value by the end of our forecast period – 2014.
Initial impressions suggest that the stimulus plan has been successful and should continue to drive growth in the infrastructure sector as it was designed to be long-sighted. Indeed, some of the investment plans are to take place over 10 years, indicating that value creation will continue in the sector over the coming years, and definitely until the end of our forecast period – 2014 ! The country is continuing its early-stage efforts to move away from reliance on oil as its major industry is expected to spend a combined KRW22,400bn (US$18.5bn) by 2013 on alternative energy projects, such as solar technology.
BMI expects the infrastructure sector to out-perform over the forecast period. Real growth will hit 11.2% in 2010 and remain an average annual rate of 9% from 2011 to 2014, bringing the total sector value to KRW50.6trn (US$50.61bn). South Korea’s business environment score has also risen this quarter sending the country into first place in BMI’s rankings for the Asia Pacific region. Overall, the country continues to perform well thanks to a tightly regulated business environment, and continuing strong growth in areas such as infrastructure.


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Browse the complete Report on - Singapore Infrastructure Report Q4 2010


Singapore’s construction industry has shown excellent performance so far this year. Backed by determined government stimulus efforts the sector is outperforming global growth rates thanks to the country’s unique business environment. For 2010, BMI estimates that the industry will be valued at US$11.66bn. This has been revised down from US$12.97bn last quarter as a result of changes to official figures. Forecasts have increased however on the back of strong performance with industry value set to rise to US$17.64bn by the end of the forecast period in 2014.
Forecasts were based on:
The official statistics agency down rating of its estimates for the construction industry from 2006 onwards. This has had the effect of boosting current growth rates. As a result the industry is showing remarkable resilience moving into 2010. Current estimates indicate 18% year on year growth for the first half of the year.
Major project developments remained thin on the ground. Key news was the move by Sembcorp Industries to strengthen its position in the water infrastructure sector with the completion of a SGD$266mn (US$192mn) acquisition of Cascal, a NYSE-listed water services firm.
The announcement that infrastructure development work was likely to require an increase in immigration to the island state by as much as 100,000 this year. Immigration remains a sensitive issue in the country and as a result the announcement indicates a high level of anticipate demand.
Construction industry growth is forecast to average 9.28% year on year until the end of the forecast period. Infrastructure industry growth is expected to drive growth increasing as a percentage of total construction value from 36% this year to 43% by 2014. The infrastructure sector will almost double from US$5.93bn in 2010 to US$9.90bn by 2014.

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Browse the complete Report on: Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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Ukraine’s economy is expected to register growth in 2010 and ought to grow steadily, after being battered during the global financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s approval of a roughly US$15.15bn stand-by arrangement in July 2010 will afford the government greater budgetary freedom in 2010 and 2011, which will filter through to construction and infrastructure spending. The country’s construction sector is in desperate need of revival after seeing its value slashed by 40.42% in 2009 to UAH22.11bn (US$2.75bn), according to BMI calculations. Indeed, we expect to see Ukraine’s construction industry stagnate in 2010 as it lags behind an upturn in economic growth, landing around UAH24.85bn (US$3.15bn) in 2010.
Major recent developments:
- Ukraine's infrastructure sector is reaping the windfalls from the new government's foreign policy reorientation towards Moscow. Russia's Sberbank announced recently, for example, that it would no longer restrict its lending in the country while reportedly arranging a loan for Ukravtodor, Ukraine's state-owned highways agency, for investments in Ukraine's road network. This loan presents a strong upside to BMI's forecasts for Ukraine's roads infrastructure industry value forecasts, which indicate that the sector will exit recession in 2010, albeit industry value will remain relatively small through to the end of our forecasts period, rising from a forecasted UAH1.95bn (US$247mn) in 2010 to UAH3.56bn (US$594mn).
- The government has received a Russian-sourced US$2bn loan for the completion of two units at Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant in June 2010. The loan approval again highlights the growing influence of Russia over Ukraine especially in the area of energy policy. Support such as this will help the country’s energy sector climb out of stagnation after 2010.
- During a visit to Lviv stadium by President Yanukovych, vice-premier, Boris Kolesnikov, claimed that a number of problems delaying progress on the UEFA European Football Championship 2012 (Euro 2012) preparations had been resolved and that construction would be back on schedule by February 2011. The self-assessment was corroborated by UEFA’s decision in early-June 2010 to approve the four sites after its latest inspection. However, while preparations appear to have accelerated in recent months, the country’s next assessment is as early as August 2010 and the risk of some of the sites losing host-rights remains a possibility.
Along with preparations for Euro 2012, BMI expects Russian investment to help Ukraine’s recession in the construction sector turn around in 2011, as the industry grows by 5.28% to UAH29.08bn (US$3.93). Beyond this, growth will ease as Euro 2012-related infrastructure construction falls away, hovering at the 3% mark y-o-y through to 2014, when the sector will be worth UAH38.91bn (US6.49bn).

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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
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Browse the complete Report on: Thailand Infrastructure Report Q4 2010
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Despite the sensational scale of the government’s clash with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), or the ‘Red Shirts’ as they are better-known, the Thai economy appears to have shrugged off the impact of the unrest within weeks. With the exception of those linked with the tourism sector, most industries – including the construction industry – have been largely unscathed by the April-June 2010 conflict on the face of it. Thailand’s construction sector will follow the country’s wider economy and exports, which have been growing strongly in recent months. The sector will have emerged from a two-year recession this year, after contracting by 5.35% in 2009 to THB244bn (US$7.12bn). BMI expects to see the sector grow by 1.17% in 2010 to THB253.7bn (US$7.65bn).

Recent developments include:
- Italian Thai Development, one of Thailand's biggest construction companies, has announced an optimistic outlook for 2010, expecting to return to net profit following two years of net loss.
However, BMI notes that growing political risk in the country may yet jeopardise upcoming tenders that are crucial to Italian Thai's growth strategy.
- BMI is forecasting a return to growth in the country's construction industry, but believe the risks are firmly to the downside. Heightened political tensions over recent weeks may compromise the government's ability to tender projects, as the focus may shift to resolving political unrest especially if there is any upturn in conflict
- Other construction companies in Thailand share Italian Thai Development’s confidence. CH. Karnchang, the second largest construction company in the country, has stated that it expects little fall out in terms of its ability to execute its order backlog, according to comments in the Bangkok Post. However, CH. Karnchang is buoyed by the fact that a number of the government contracts driving this confidence have already been approved by the government, and therefore work could move ahead as planned. The case is not the same for Italian Thai, which is relying on the government to award contracts. However, there are also threats to CH. Karnchang further down the line, as both it and Italian Thai may be hit by the government's ability to pay for work done, with payment delays a likely scenario.
In any case, BMI expects growth in the construction industry to trail economic growth going forward as construction makes up a slightly smaller proportion of total GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period. In 2005, the sector made up 3.06% of GDP, which we expect to fall to 2.62% in 2010. Post-2010, we anticipate that the government may have to rein in spending ambitions, given fiscal constraints. We therefore expect the construction sector’s growth rate to accelerate only modestly beyond 2010, breaking 2% in 2013 as the sector grows to THB291.4bn (US$9.25bn). By 2014, we expect the industry to grow by 2.12% to THB305.8bn (US$10.03bn).


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Browse the complete Report on Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2010





Four themes dominated developments in Russia’s infrastructure over the previous quarter:
- Orlovsky Tunnel PPP awarded
- VINCI strengthened its presence in the Russian infrastructure sector.
- 2009 construction industry figures revealed a much worse picture that originally anticipated, with construction industry value down by 28.2% in real terms and gross fixed capital formation almost down by 10%.; 
- Privatisation of several state owned assets still on the table
The government of St. Petersburg and a consortium led by VINCI signed the concession agreement for the design, financing, construction and operation of the Orlovsky Tunnel. This is the second major concession agreement for VINCI in Russia and based on recent progress on both projects, the company is on a strong course to cement its presence in the market. 
Our bearish forecasts for Russia’s construction and infrastructure sector for 2009 turned out to be not bearish enough. Our expectation that higher oil prices and reduced volatility in the economic outlook would provide some support for the industry in the second half of 2009 did not play out. On the contrary, H209 losses in industry value growth were in fact greater than those recorded over H109. Overall, the industry shrank by a massive 28% in value in real terms over 2009, a decline precipitated by curtailed government spending and the contraction in residential and commercial construction. Our forecasts for 2010 onwards have been revised down. The construction industry value as a whole will not recover as robustly as the infrastructure sector, because the steep decline in residential and commercial construction will weigh on the sector for longer. 
Privatisation is also a theme for 2010, as the government seeks to finance the budget deficit (forecast to be US$73bn in 2010, or 6% of GDP) by offloading of assets. Transport and energy assets have been earmarked among the 5,500 state-owned companies in which the state plans to divest stakes.




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Browse the complete Report on : Germany Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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Construction and infrastructure forecasts were revised down this quarter despite strong Q210 GDP figures. This is in light of our view that the Q2 robust economic growth is not sustainable and our expectation that the weakness recorded in construction in the first quarter could offset the possible gains made in Q2. Our new forecasts for the construction industry value show moderate growth of 1.13% for 2010 and 2.3% in 2011. Accordingly, industry value is forecast to be EUR99bn and EUR103.3bn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, down from our previous forecast of EUR102bn in 2010 and EUR107bn in 2011. Key developments that contributed to forecasts include:
- Railway development was the major project news this quarter. Deutche Bahn announced plans to invest EUR41bn in capital expenditure on its transport network over the next four years. Around 75% of the amount into rail network and station modernisation the remaining 25% of funds will be put toward acquiring new trains. The company also announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) to develop a railway link, connecting Switzerland and Germany. SBB has agreed to invest CHF1bn (US$945mn) in the rail link, which is likely to become operational by the end of 2014.
- BMI forecasts indicate that infrastructure will account for almost 30% of the total construction sector and gain ground in the coming years as the residential and non-residential building activity stagnates.
- Delays were announced for upgrade work to Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport, as larger security zones must be built in compliance with new EU safety regulations. The airport is now scheduled to be opened on June 3 2012, rather than October 30 2011 as planned. Extra investment of EUR50mn (US$61mn) will be made to upgrade the terminal – this will include the installation of 32 security lines to handle 4,500 passengers and the construction of two pavilions. There will be 36 security screening lines from 2013.
We forecast that Infrastructure industry value is forecast to reach nearly EUR30bn in 2010 and to rise to EUR33bn in 2011 – a real growth of 11%, down from our previous forecast of 18% real growth in 2011. The bullish scenario specifically for the infrastructure sector is based on the German index for orders received in civil engineering, which indicates that orders have been in the black (albeit erratically) in H1 2009 and beginning of 2010. This means growing orderbooks for the industry, which will translate into new activity in the coming months.


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ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
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