Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Commercial Banking Report Q3 2010
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to the Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to the Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investors Service’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.


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Original Source : Commercial Banking Market
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Browse complete Report Public Sector IT Opportunity – Philippines

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The primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive background of public sector dynamics in Philippines to enable vendors to address market opportunities more successfully.

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.

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Browse the complete Report on:  Philippines Infrastructure Report Q3 2010

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Real growth data for the Philippines construction industry value in 2009 has been revised down to 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) from a previous 5.8% y-o-y. While this represents a notable revision, it still indicates solid growth for the country against a difficult economic backdrop. On the plus side, nominal industry value has been revised upwards, from PHP378.67bn to PHP390.45bn (US$8.46bn), for 2009. Despite the slowdown in construction industry growth experienced in 2009, we are still optimistic for growth to rebound in 2010 to previous highs. In 2010, we are anticipating real growth of 7.16%, with this increasing into double digit growth later in the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2014 we are anticipating average growth of around 10% y-o-y.
Evidence that our optimism for 2010 and beyond is well founded is shown in the number of investment pledges recorded by the Philippine Board of Investments. In the first half of the year investment approvals increased by 318% to PHP124.42bn in the same period in 2009 and higher than those approved in the whole of 2009. Investment pledges have been received for 87 projects, of which, 70% were for power projects, including renewable energy and rehabilitation projects. This data presents further upside potential to our forecasts.
However, there are a number of threats to our outlook. Rising construction material prices will threaten the execution of projects. Prices for construction materials increased in April and May 2010, and in June Holcim Philippines announced it would increase its cement prices in the country, starting June 21 2010, further confirming the announcement made by the Board of Investments (BoI) that Philippine cement is one of the most expensive in Asia, second only to Indonesia. Rising prices for cement in the country have been blamed, in part, on the cost of electricity, one of the key inputs. The high cost of electricity, and the intermittent supply, could also pose a threat to construction industry value growth.
Another risk is to one of the largest areas of potential in the Philippines’ infrastructure sector – the renewable energy sector. Despite the passing of the renewable energy act in 2008, which set up a feed-in tariff for renewables, it has yet to define the levels for each individual technology under the renewable bracket, including - solar, geothermal, biomass, wind and small hydro. This is causing uncertainty in the market; indeed, in June 2010, Northwind Power Development put a new wind farm on hold for a year to be located in Aparri, Cagayan..
Despite this, the creation of the Wind Energy Development Association (WEDAP) of the Philippines by a number of power companies, in June 2010, does present potential for better regulations in the sector, and therefore facilitating investment. The association's main focus is to promote and support the development of wind power in the Philippines, as well as influence policy creation under the Renewable Energy Act. So far, WEDAP has called for a reasonable rate of compensation to counteract the high sunk costs of setting up a wind farm, and has suggested feed-in tariffs to make wind competitive with fossil fuels and has called for investment into transmission lines in order to hook up more remote areas to the national grid.


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Original Source : – Philippines Infrastructure Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Retail Report Q4 2010
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The Q410 BMI Philippines Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a forecast PHP1.33trn (US$29.85bn) in 2010 to PHP1.64trn (US$36.83bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in the Philippines’ retail sales.
The Philippines’ nominal GDP is a forecast US$174.46bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.6% is predicted by BMI through to 2014, reaching US$261.33bn. With the population expected to increase from an estimated 93.6mn in 2010 to 100.9mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 52% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,586. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,419 in 2010 to US$1,938 by 2014.
Although salaries in the Philippines remain low – BMI forecasts the 2010 average annual wage at US$2,000 – household incomes are substantially bolstered by contributions from family members working overseas. Total remittances into the country rose by 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2009, bringing the total to US$12.8bn, up from US$12.3bn in 9M08. BMI forecasts 14.5% growth in remittances in 2010, up from the 5.6% growth estimated for 2009, on the back of the US and global recovery.
With the majority of remittances going into consumption rather than investments, the retail industry is one of the beneficiaries. In urban areas in particular there are also increasing numbers of dual-income, middle-class families and young professionals who are boosting retail sales.
The country’s growing youth population represents a key element of future retail spending. According to UN data, 36.7% of the Philippine population was in the 20-44 age range in 2005. This is forecast to increase to nearly 39% by 2015. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 60.9% in 2005 and should rise to almost 63% by 2015. The urban population, which accounted for 62.6% of the total in 2005, is predicted to reach nearly 70% by 2015. About 50% of the country’s total retail sales are concentrated in the Manila metropolitan area.
Consumer electronic sales are forecast to be worth US$3.78bn in 2010, according to BMI data, rising to US$4.89bn by 2014 (+29%). Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to increase from US$763mn in 2010 to US$1.03bn by 2014, a rise of more than 35%. Vehicle sales should increase by 22%, from US$1.32bn in 2010 to US$1.61bn by the end of forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. For the Philippines, the forecast market share of 1.1% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 0.8% by 2014.
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BMI has taken the opportunity to revise upwards its forecasts for the mobile telephony services market in the Philippines this quarter. Q110 showed stronger than expected growth in terms of subscriber additions and the media reports that even stronger growth may have been achieved in Q210. The market is being propelled ever upwards by growing demand for 3G and mobile broadband services. The key operators - Smart Communications, Globe Telecom and Digitel (Sun Cellular) are all aggressively marketing their nextgeneration services, accompanied by a blitz of pricing promotions and the inclusion of must-have handsets and related devices as a means of enticing customers onto their networks.

In the meantime, they are also slashing the prices of basic voice and data services, to the extent that ‘bucket’ offerings now predominate and account for the majority of ‘new’ customers. Thanks to the launch of a number of new unlimited call packages, Smart and Digitel are thought to have done exceptionally well in Q210, although actual data were not forthcoming at the time of writing. We now expect that this trend will continue for the next few years, at least until basic ARPUs fall below acceptable levels. By 2014, we expect there will be 117.5mn mobile subscribers. 3G connections will account for 12.9% of the market by that time. There may even be two new operators on the scene, assuming the regulator can extricate itself from a potentially messy court battle that places the entity’s controversial 2005 3G licensing contest at the heart of the issue.

We remain concerned that the apparent strong growth is actually built on the cannibalisation of the existing mobile subscriber base. In other words, 2G customers are taking advantage of very low cost 3G services yet keeping their 2G phones active. Multiple SIM ownership is less of a problem than subscriber inactivity and we believe that many millions of inactive subscriptions remain on the operators’ databases, artificially inflating reported subscriber numbers.

The real growth story in the Philippines, though, is that of broadband, with uptake of both fixed and wireless offerings a very long way from running out of steam. The fixed broadband market is constrained by the limitations of the fixed-line operators’ networks (from both a technological and a geographic coverage perspective), but interest in xDSL and fixed WiMAX services appears to be strong. Mobile broadband, however, appears to have attracted a great deal of interest, and market leaders PLDT (along with its Smart Communications subsidiary) and Globe Telecom are reporting rapid subscriber growth for 3G/3.5G-based wireless broadband offerings, fuelled by very attractively-priced offers.

BMI forecasts that, by the end of 2014, there will be around 5.044mn broadband subscribers, reflecting a penetration rate of 5%.

The Philippines remains in 12th place in this quarter’s Business Environment Ratings analysis; its score was down by 0.8pps quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). Despite better than expected mobile subscriber growth, average mobile ARPUs remain low at around US$3.74 in Q110 and the likelihood is that this will remain the case (or maybe even fall to a flat US$3 before too long) as the three major operators unveil further heavily-discounted services and unlimited call-and-text buckets.
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Original Source : Philippines Telecommunication Market

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Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
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The Philippines remains ranked 11th in our Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings (BER) table for Q410. Globally, the country places 49th of the 83 markets now surveyed in our pharmaceutical universe, held back primarily by a range of price-control measures and the government’s lacking stance on intellectual property (IP) regulations. Nevertheless, the market is maturing and there are calls to expand the socialised healthcare system to serve the entire nation, which would boost volume consumption in particular. Generics makers are, however, expected to be the primary beneficiaries of this trend, as patent expirations also increase pressure on the research-based pharmaceutical industry.

However, the practice of lowering the cost of life-saving drugs has led to problems, including restricting the supply of inexpensive generic drugs. According to Edward Isaac of the Philippine Chamber of the Pharmaceutical Industry, generic drug companies have also had to lower their prices after former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s regulations led to cuts in the prices of branded medicines. Some drug retailers have reportedly put their expansion plans on hold due to a decline in their profits. Additionally, the non-government Center for Legislative Development (CLD) conducted a study in 2009 which concluded that the enforcement of drug price cuts by 50-70% had benefited only the middle class. Over the 2009-2014 forecast period, we expect the value of the Philippines’ drug market to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.94% in local currency terms, reaching PHP151.3bn (US$3.69bn). While we expect the new administration (led by President Aquino) to continue some of the Arroyo administration’s programme to reduce prices in order to increase access to medicines, it seems market forces are also likely to play a larger role. President Aquino’s appointment of Enrique Ona as secretary of the Philippines' Department of Health has already been criticised, given Ona’s position as an advocate for the corporatisation of government hospitals and medical tourism - despite the country's healthcare system's inability to cater to all of the Philippines’ population.

Still, we have recently upgraded our 2010 real GDP growth forecast for the Philippines, from 4.4% to 4.9%, mainly on the back of firmer private consumption as well as capital formation growth. Moreover, heavy government spending due to the May 2010 general elections will also serve as a major boost in the short term. The positive outturn reaffirms our view that the Philippines economy will stage a V-shaped rebound in 2010, which should also bode well for the performance of the pharmaceutical market. However, we have also revised our 2011 economic growth forecast downwards to 4.0% (from 4.4%), due to concerns for a Chinese double-dip slowdown, which will have an impact on fiscal revenues available for public sector expenditure. In the meantime, despite substantial improvements in its investment climate in recent years, the Philippines still has a lot to do if it is to continue to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), which will play into the hands of domestic and overseas generics players.
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Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Shipping Report Q4 2010

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Ports in the Philippines have been on a growth curve as 2010 progressed. In late June the Philippines Ports Authority (PPA) said that cargo volumes handled grew by 23% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter, reaching 39.53mn tonnes. Box traffic was up by 21% to 1.07mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Significant increases in general tonnage were registered at the ports of Iloilo, Puerto Princesa, Iligan, San Fernando and Dapitan. By traded commodities, growth was mainly due to increased shipments of maize, cement, grains, coconut oil, flour, chemicals, coal, mineral fuels and limestone, the PPA said. The maritime industry welcomed the fact that the Philippines' general elections produced a clear winner, the Liberal Party's Benigno Aquino III, who initiated a six-year term, replacing the unpopular outgoing President, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. While this pointed to political stability and strong leadership, less good news for the industry perhaps was that the new president lacked a clear majority in Congress, meaning his policies would be subject to significant horse-trading.
That said, BMI was upbeat about the country's immediate economic prospects, raising our forecast for this years' GDP growth to 4.9% (from 4.4% previously) on the back of dynamic performances from both private consumption and investment. On the other hand, we have eased back the projection for 2011 to 4.0% (down from 4.4%) because of the prospect of a 'double dip' slowdown in global growth rates. Our medium term forecast is for the Philippines' GDP expansion to average 4.6% per annum over the next five years, a respectable number although slower than in the period before the 2009 recession. Data for the first quarter of 2010 showed port tonnage recovering strongly. BMI is projecting an increase in volume at Manila International Container Terminal (MICT), up by 25.2%, after a major 42.0% surge last year. At the Port of Cebu we see this year's volume gaining by 9.2% . The MICT is expected to see 25.5% container handling growth adding to the significant increase already experienced in 2009, when most of the world's ports were suffering from the recession. The Port of Cebu will see growth of 3.3%. In real terms, we expect the Philippines' total trade (imports + exports) to recover this year, following the steep 8.8% fall in 2009. With the domestic economy performing ahead of expectations, we see trade increasing by 9.6% in 2010, making up for the previous year's setback. Across our five-year forecast period we are projecting average annual real-terms trade growth of 7.1%, ahead of GDP. Imports will lead the way with average annual growth of 8.1%, ahead of exports at 6.1%. In nominal terms, BMI is projecting this year's total exports at US$58.3bn, against imports of US$61.4bn. The small deficit on the balance of trade will widen over the next few years, to over US$10bn by 2014.
The risks to our Philippines ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. We have already factored in something of a growth slowdown in 2011, reflecting the 'double dip' pause in global economic growth rates that we are anticipating. However the risk is that the slowdown could be sharper than we are expecting, leading to a weaker foreign trade performance, which would have a negative effect on the industry. A second risk - which we rate as having a low probability , but wich is worth keeping in mind - is that the new government of President Aquino will encounter significant difficulties in building a supportive coalition in Congress, and could therefore encounter an early policy deadlock.

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Browse the complete Report on : Philippines Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010


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BMI projects that the Philippines’ consumer electronics market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% to US$5.5bn by 2014, driven by rising household penetration of PCs and LCD TV sets. The market is forecast to grow slightly from 2009 to be worth around US$3.8bn in 2010, with more growth coming from areas outside Metro Manila.
Demand in most product categories is expected to strengthen in H210, in line with BMI’s prediction of a V-shaped economic recovery. However, a weak global economy and slowdown in remittances are among factors likely to continue to affect sales of some products. Growth in product categories such as LCD TV sets will help to prevent stagnation, while more than 1mn smartphones were sold in the Philippines in 2009.
Computers accounted for around 42% of Philippine consumer electronics spending in 2009. BMI forecasts Philippine domestic market computer hardware sales (including notebooks and accessories) of US$1.6bn in 2010, up from US$1.5bn in 2009. Computer hardware CAGR for the 2010-2014 period is forecast at about 12%, with much growth coming from increasing PC penetration, which is less than 10% currently. In July 2009, the government launched a new low-cost PC initiative.
Table Of Contents

Executive Summary  5
SWOT Analysis  7
Philippines Consumer Electronics Market SWOT  7
Philippines Electronics Industry SWOT  8
Philippines Political SWOT  9
Philippines Economic SWOT  10
Philippines Business Environment SWOT  11
Business Environment Ratings  12

Table: Asia Regional Consumer Electronics Business Environment Ratings  14
Market Overview  15
Computers 15

Table: Computers Demand  15
AV  17

Table: AV Demand  18
Mobile Handsets  20

Table: Mobile Handsets Demand  21
Consumer Electronics Industry  24

Table: Electronics Output, 2007-2014  25
Semiconductors And Components  27
Computers 28
AV  28
Telecommunications  29
Industry Forecast Scenario  30

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview  30
Industry Developments 32
IT Education Agenda  32
Macroeconomic Forecast  34

Table: Philippines – Economic Activity  36
Competitive Landscape  37
Computer  37
Handsets  39
AV  41
Semiconductors  44
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data  45
Section 1: Population  45

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030  45

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030  46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare  46

Table: Education, 2002-2005  46

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030  46
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power  47

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006  47

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$)  48

Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006  48
BMI Methodology  49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts  49
Electronics Industry  49
Sources  50

List of Table

Table: Asia Regional Consumer Electronics Business Environment Ratings . 14
Table: Computers Demand . 15
Table: AV Demand . 18
Table: Mobile Handsets Demand . 21
Table: Electronics Output, 2007-2014 . 25
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview . 30
Table: Philippines – Economic Activity . 36
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 45
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 46
Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 46
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 46
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 47
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) . 48
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 . 48

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Browse the complete Report on : Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010

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The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.02% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.75% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. The Philippines’ estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 0.89%, while its share of production was 1.06%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.85%, with the country accounting for 0.96% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
The Philippines’ real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI to be 4.9%, with an average annual increase of 4.6% expected in 2010-2014. There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 67,000b/d by 2014, with the country pumping an estimated 60,000b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2014, implying end-period demand of 307,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore be about 241,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2010 to 5.3bcm by 2014, with imports required by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Philippines oil production of 22.62%, with crude volumes peaking at 70,000b/d in 2012/2013 before falling steadily to 51,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 29.20%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 349,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from around 4.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 8.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 105%, this will require up to 1.0bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
The Philippines holds sixth place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks eighth, just behind Pakistan, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than-average output growth outlook. The Philippines also ranks eighth, between Thailand and Indonesia, in our downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its modest refinery capacity expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity.

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Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Freight Transport Report Q4 2010

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Philippines national carrier Philippine Airlines (PAL) received approval from the government to launch a massive outsourcing programme aimed at reducing costs in June 2010, after the government ruled against employee opposition. The decision will affect the airline's cargo and ground handling, in-flight catering and call centre reservations units. The workforce will be reduced from the 7,500 to 4,000, which is aimed at saving up to US$22mn per year. Trade unions have decided to fight against the cost cutting decision. PAL, which provides air transport for passengers and cargo within and outside the Philippines, is a subsidiary of Philippine holding company PAL Holdings. It's route network covers 29 cities in the Philippines and 33 international destinations.
The May 2010 general election produced a clear winner, the Liberal Party's Benigno Aquino III, who started a six-year presidential term in June, replacing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. While this suggests there will be political stability and strong leadership, less good news for the freight industry was that the new president lacked a clear majority in congress, meaning his policies could be subject to significant horsetrading. That said, BMI is upbeat about the country's immediate economic prospects, raising our forecast for this years' GDP growth to 4.9%, from 4.4% previously, on the back of dynamic performances from private consumption and investment. However, we have reduced our projection for 2011 to 4.0%, down from 4.4%, because of the prospect of a double-dip slowdown in global growth rates. Based on official data series we believe that total air cargo, measured in tonnes, fell by 4.4% in the recession year of 2009, and it is set to recover with 5.6% growth in 2010. This year's recovery will be based on international traffic rather than domestic.
Data for Q110 showed port tonnage recovering strongly. BMI forecasts an increase in volume at the Manila International Container Terminal (MICT) in 2010, up by 25.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), after a 42.0% surge last year. Over the medium-term, we believe growth will be vigorous. At the Port of Cebu we forecast volumes increasing by 9.2% in 2010. The MICT is expected to achieve 25.5% container handling growth this year, adding to the significant increase already experienced in 2009, when most of the world's ports were suffering during the recession. Growth at Cebu is forecast at 3.3%. In real terms, we expect the Philippines' total trade (imports plus exports) to recover this year, following a 8.8% fall in 2009. With the domestic economy performing ahead of expectations, we expect trade to increase by 9.6% in 2010, making up for last year's setback.
We still believe that the risks to our Philippines freight forecasts are to the downside. With the presidential election complete, political risk is reduced, but there is a question mark over the relationship between Aquino and congress. A deadlock would delay public and private investment decisions, with negative knock-on effects for growth. The second risk to monitor is the possibility of a greater than expected double-dip recession in China, which would mainly affect 2011's growth. China has grown in importance as a Philippines trading partner, and is currently the country's top export market, so it has a major influence on the local economy.


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Browse the complete Report on: Philippines Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: We expect Philippine crop production to improve in the 2010/11 season after 2009/10 crops were hit by a series of typhoons followed by high temperatures. Despite the production increases, the country will struggle to produce a surplus across all agricultural sectors in 2010/11. Although the government is attempting to mitigate some of the production inefficiencies through investments, the agricultural industry will continue to struggle to supply a rising population whose incomes are increasing as well. Over the forecast period, we expect the Philippines to remain either roughly in balance or in a deficit across all agriculture sectors.


Key Views

Coffee Production Growth to 2013/14: 13% to 7.8mn bags. Government and private investment will help increase yields as new trees mature over the forecast period. Despite the growth, the country will not reach the government's planed self-sufficiency in the next few years.
Corn production growth to 2013/14: 20% to 8.1mn tonnes. Beyond a typhoon-weakened 2009/10 output, corn production is expected to recover and return to growth driven by improving yields and an expansion of the area under harvest due to the increasing production in the livestock sector which uses corn as feed.
Sugar production growth out to 2013/14: 33% to 2.8mn tonnes. Over our forecast period, we expect sugar output to keep expanding driven by improvements in yields and rising domestic demand.
2010 Real GDP Growth: 4.9% (up from 0.9% in 2009; predicted to average 4% from now until 2014).
Consumer Price Inflation: 3.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in July 2010 (down from 0.2% y-o-y in July 2009).
Industry Developments
Consumption of dairy products is extremely low in the Philippines given the size of its population. In 2009 fluid milk consumption reached 58,000 tonnes, up by 11.5% y-o-y. We have forecast an increase in consumption of 4.4% in 2010 taking consumption up to 60,560 tonnes of fluid milk. Over the remainder of our forecast period, we see fluid milk consumption growing by 20.7% (compared to 2009 levels) to just over 70,000 tonnes. This growth will be driven by rising incomes and increasing awareness of the health benefits of milk, as well as government action. However, this will still leave the Philippines well below consumption rates of other countries in the region.
By 2013/14 we forecast rice production to reach almost 12.7mn tonnes, surpassing 2009 levels by over 18%. This will be fuelled by continued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiency. The Philippines' agreement with Thailand to purchase 367,000 tonnes of rice per year until 2015 while keeping the 40% import tariff will also encourage domestic producers who feared being unable to compete with cheaper imports. However, we believe the country's goal to become self-sufficient over that time remains unrealistic.
Over our forecast period, we expect the livestock industry on the whole to see steady if unspectacular growth. Growth in demand for poultry will be strong over the period, but we see domestic output failing to keep up with demand, hampered by high costs and poor infrastructure. To 2014 we see poultry production growing by 13.3% from its 2009 level to 821,100 tonnes, meaning more of the country's needs will have to be supplied by imports. We forecast pork production to grow by 12.0% to 1.37mn tonnes driven by an increase in commercial farming, as well as rising domestic consumption. Cattle farming will remain marginal with beef production growing by 2.1% to 224,600 tonnes.

About Us

ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.


Contact:

Ms. Sunita
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Tel: +1-888-989-8004
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