Browse the complete Report on: Croatia Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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BMI Industry View
Our expectations for Croatia’s short-term outlook for its food and drinks market is relatively guarded, given the challenging economic environment, including the high unemployment rate and weakened consumer confidence. While some recovery of annual growth levels are expected in the medium-to-longer term, they will fall short of those recorded pre-recession, with the Croatian consumer increasingly becoming fond of private label items. From the mass grocery retail (MGR) perspective, the Croatian market will fail to attract major foreign direct investment (FDI) programmes, which will further serve to hamper the development of the country’s food and beverages consumption values.
Headline Industry Data
2010 per capita food consumption = +0.6%; forecast to 2014 = +8.4%
2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.4%; forecast to 2014 = +12.3%
2010 soft drinks sales = +0.5%; forecast to 2014 = +7.3%
2010 mass grocery retail = +3.2%; forecast to 2014 = +23.7%
Key Company Trends
Consolidation in Food and Drink – The key company event in the past month was the acquisition agreement struck between Croatian functional food and drink producer and distributor, Atlantic Grupa and Slovenian food company Droga Kolinska. The former, which is poised to acquire the latter for EUR382mn (subject to regulatory approval), would create one of the region's largest food and drink firms by annual sales. Although tactical product synergies with Atlantic's core functional food and drink
products are probably lacking, acquiring Droga would open up routes to the hot drinks and snack food industries in particular. Atlantic is also poised to pursue promising organic growth projects in 2010, with the Czech Republic and Slovakia likely to be targeted.
Key Risks to Outlook
Croatia’s Flagging Investment Potential – Having been placed 24th in 2009, according to A.T.Kearney’s recently published Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) for 2010, Croatia has been pushed out of the top 30 most attractive retail investment destinations for global chains. Additionally, private labels were reported by market research agency GfK to account for a growing share of the total market (or for 19.4% of the food market). If this trend persists – despite the benefits provided by the eventual EU membership – our forecasts will be adjusted accordingly, as the above factors will have a negative impact on the value of consumer spending.
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Original Source : – Croatia Food and Drink Market

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Browse the complete Report on: Mexico Autos Report Q4 2010
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Mexico has inched nearer to becoming Latin America’s largest vehicle market, Brazil, in BMI’s Business Environment Rankings for the auto industry in the Americas this quarter, supporting BMI’s view that the country will continue emerging as an important auto hub in the region. However, a key factor driving recovery for Mexico’s auto exports and hence production will be the increasing diversification of export destinations.
Not only do we expect carmakers to gear an increasing proportion of their exports to Latin America, but also to markets outside the Americas. Japanese carmaker Nissan Motor’s Mexican subsidiary plans to kick-start its diversification strategy by exporting close to 20,000 Tiida sedan and hatchback cars to the Middle East from as early as this year and we expect more carmakers to follow suit. After a moderate recovery in auto production, to a growth of 15% y-o-y, to just over 1.8mn units by the end of this year, we expect Mexico to grow at an average 9.3% y-o-y between 2011 and 2014, to 2.59mn units – marking an almost 50% increase compared with 2009.
Prospects for domestic demand are less optimistic though. Domestic demand only managed to register its first quarterly sales growth in Q210, taking the end of H110 auto sales only 7.7% higher compared with the same period last year, at 370,967 units. Mindful of this, the Mexican government is therefore stepping up efforts to promote domestic vehicle sales. On top of forcing banks to increase lending to car buyers, it is abolishing the over 40-year-old tax on new car purchases – tenencia – in the hope of kick-starting a recovery in sales.
However, BMI remains sceptical and continues to hold its forecast for sales of 834,000 vehicles by the end of the year, a rise of just over 6% y-o-y. BMI continues to stress that improved vehicle finance offers the best possible support for a recovery in sales.
Supporting our view that Mexico will continue to emerge as a production hub, BMW is looking to triple its parts purchases from Mexico by 2012. More evidence of the growing confidence in Mexicomade components came to light in October last year when Volkswagen de Mexico revealed it was looking to increase its local supplier chain. BMI points out that although the supplier segment in Mexico has historically been under-developed to meet international specifications and quality standards, the increasing presence of leading global brands is helping a globally competent industry emergence.

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Browse the complete Report on: Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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BMI Industry View
Kazakhstan is easily our favourite Central Asian consumer market. Its growth over the coming years will be supported by a positive economic outlook, with food and drinks values not nearly as affected by the 2009 global financial crisis as those of its regional counterparts. The considerable market potential, which has already been recognised by a number of foreign players – in both food and drinks and mass grocery retail (MGR) industries – will continue to ensure dynamism through foreign direct investment (FDI). The government’s drive to diversify the oil-dependent economy also bodes well for the market’s longer-term growth, with private consumption set to be a key driver of value increase.
Headline Industry Data
2010 per capita food consumption = +3.3%, forecast to 2014: +41.5%
2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +4.9%; forecast to 2014= +41.5%
2010 soft drinks sales = +4.6%; forecast to 2014= +51.1%
Key Company Trends
Consolidation of Fragmented Industries – In June 2010, the French and Russian dairy majors, Danone and Unimilk respectively, were poised to combine their operations in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Although the companies have direct manufacturing presence in Kazakhstan, the combination of their global branding and local expertise will considerably increase their competitive potential. Danone-Unimilk (in which the former will have a 57.5% share) is expected to capture over 20% of Russia’s large dairy market. While the dairy industry in Kazakhstan remains largely fragmented, further consolidation is likely in the coming years, especially as larger players explore the power of marketing and the development of modern retail channels.
Key Risks to Outlook
Shortcomings of Overall Operating Environment – While foreign investment into relatively nascent sectors of the economy will help shield Kazakhstan's economy from future fluctuations in energy prices, the authorities will also need to address certain shortcomings of the current operating environment. For example, while Kazakhstan boasts one of the more investment-friendly regimes within the CIS, more efforts are required in terms of opening up of the non-resource sectors and of combating corruption.
Shift Towards Doing Business with Europe – Kazakhstan's growing economic and political clout may allow it to expand export routes away from Russia further down the line. We therefore expect to see new trade relations emerging, with the EU likely to take a greater share of Kazakh exports and vice versa, impacting product mix, although this is more of a longer-term scenario.
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Browse the complete Report on: United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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While the UAE is in the middle of a fairly robust economic recovery, with GDP growth of 4.8% forecast for 2010, much of the growth will be driven by external factors. Underlined by the fact that real private consumption growth of just 1% is forecast for 2010, consumer spending remains weak with Dubai in particular continuing to feel the effects of the 2009 Dubai World crisis.

Consequently, demand for premium goods is expected to remain fragile over the near term with a pickup expected in 2011. We continue to see plenty of room for premiumised growth over the medium-to-long term. The UAE’s economy has grown at phenomenal speed over the past decade and it has been almost impossible for the consumer goods industry to keep up with the pace at which tastes and preferences have evolved.

Given the UAE’s position as a regional hub for multinational food and drink companies and the fact that consumer spending across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to grow considerably over the next few years, companies are expected to continue following through with major fixed asset investments.

Headline Industry Data

• 2010 per capita food consumption = +2.68%; forecast to 2014 = +9.36%
• 2010 soft drinks value sales = +3.44%; forecast to 2014 = +14%
• 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +8.02%; forecast to 2014 = +40.33%

Key Company Trends 
MNC Expansion Ongoing - multinational companies are continuing to pursue fixed asset investments in the UAE despite the ongoing downturn in consumer spending. In May 2010, Mars GCC announced the launch of a US$40mn manufacturing facility in Dubai as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region assumed greater strategic significance. In March 2010, it was announced that Nestlé had launched a new plant in Dubai with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tonnes.

Duty Free Sales Flying - The ongoing strength of Dubai Duty Free (DDF) continues to contrast with onthe- ground caution in Dubai - up until now the driving force behind the Gulf premiumisation wave. DDF H110 sales increased 16% year-on-year (y-o-y) to US$607mn. The performance of DDF matters a lot to premium food and drink companies targeting the Gulf region in our opinion. It is the world’s largest dutyfree retailer in terms of annual sales and is responsible for nearly 50% of duty-free sales in the Middle East region.

Key Risks to Outlook

Downside risks to our UAE consumer view are largely based on external factors. Over the H210 (calendar) period it will remain vulnerable to external developments, namely oil prices and external trade. If the outlook for these two factors deteriorated, the pace of the consumer recovery will be adversely affected.
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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Turkey's short-term consumer spending outlook emphatically distinguishes it from the rest of emerging Europe, with trends far detached from a region that for the most part has been systemically negatively affected by the economic turbulence of the past 18 months.

Turkey is expected to be one of Europe’s strongest performing economies over the next decade. Able to call on a dynamic long-term economic outlook (by 2019 its per capita GDP is expected to resemble that of Portugal’s, according to our Europe team), a business friendly regulatory environment and a growing population already in excess of 70mn, Turkey is likely to emerge as one of the world’s highest potential consumer markets over the next decade.

Headline Industry Data 

• 2010 per capita food consumption +6.13%=; forecast to 2014 =+39.76%
• 2010 beer volume sales = +4.36%; forecast to 2014 = +22.06%
• 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +18.06%; forecast to 2014 = +68.41%

Key Company Trends

Discount Retail Outperforming - Discount retail sales continue to perform strongly with the leading players laying down significant expansion plans. In May 2010, the rapidly growing Turkish discount retailer Diasa put forward plans to launch 300 new stores by year-end 2010. One of the much vaunted ‘E7’ emerging markets (along with Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia), we believe a strong case can be made for Turkey’s mass grocery retail industry to be considered emerging Europe’s most promising.

In April 2010, Turkey’s leading discount retailer BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS announced its aim to grow annual sales by 25% in FY10 (12 months to December 31 2010), with growth largely being driven by aggressive organic store expansion. Sometimes called the ‘Turkish Aldi’ due to the similarity of its business model to that of the German discounter, BIM reported above consensus FY09 headline year-onyear (y-o-y) earnings growth of 86% to TRY213mn (US$101.94mn) with annual sales increasing by 25%.
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Browse the complete Report on: Malaysia Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: Malaysia’s food and drink industry continues to recover from the slowdown experienced in 2009 with many of the country’s leading industry players posting robust growth in interim financials. Even allowing for this recovery, however, Malaysia continues to linger within the bottom half of our Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, with neither existing consumption levels nor growth prospects exciting enough to mark the country out among many of its higher growth regional emerging market peers.
Headline Industry Data

• Total Food Consumption to increase by 6.1% in 2010 to reach MYR1,575 as the economic recovery gathers pace.
• Beer Volume Sales to grow by 13.4% to 2014; unspectacular, but value sales growth should exceed this thanks to premiumisation opportunities
• Soft Drink Sales (MYR) to increase by 45.8% to 2014, the process of trading up to higher value beverage items in line with economic growth driving this forecast
• Mass Grocery Retail Sales to grow by 45.8% with all formats expected to witness similar growth levels thanks to sustained local and multinational investment

Key Industry Trends
Beer Competition Remains Intense – both Guinness Anchor Berhad and Carlsberg Malaysia – the country’s two leading brewers – posted strong Q110 financials. Revenues rose by 17.8% and 30.6% respectively, buoyed by the Chinese New Year and the recovering economy. Competition between the two firms – over a fairly small customer base – remains strong.
Carrefour Departure Rumoured – In spite of a strong mass grocery retail sales growth outlook, rumours are once-again circulating about the possibility of Carrefour exiting Malaysia in line with its long-held strategy of exiting any market in which it does not hold, or does not have a chance of holding, a top three market position. We would expect interest in any such divestment to be considerable, with Carrefour’s multinational rival Tesco likely to be among the bidders as it seeks to build its own Malaysian footprint.
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Browse the complete Report on: Kuwait Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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The outlook for Kuwait’s food and drink sector appears to be improving as consumer confidence looks to be on the rise. However, it still remains some way off its pre-downturn 2009 peak with discretion still carrying a marked influence on spending. While spending on food and drink in Kuwait is fairly high, the small size of the market means that long-term volume growth opportunities are limited, as reflected in our forecast figures. While Kuwait does not have as large a high-spending expatriate population as other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets such as Qatar and the UAE, significant economic development over the past decade has led to an influx of high income expatriates, bringing with them spending power and western tastes and preferences. Nevertheless, while some expansion oriented food and drink companies may consider market entry, Kuwait’s investment appeal is unlikely to stretch beyond Gulfbased firms intent on diversifying regionally.

Headline Industry Data

• 2010 food consumption = +3.0%; forecast to 2014 = +18.9%
• 2010 per capita food consumption = +0.58%; forecast to 2014 = +6.74
• 2010 soft drink sales = +3.8%; forecast to 2014 = +21.7%
• 2010 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales = +3.33%; forecast to 2014 = +22.6%
• Key Company Trends

Potential Retail Expansion Ahead? - While the Kuwaiti MGR sector is fairly stagnant, this could soon change. In July 2010 consulting firm A T Kearney released its annual 2010 Global Retail Development Index report which ranks the top 30 emerging markets for retail expansion, based on 25 macroeconomic and retail-specific variables. In the latest report Kuwait came in at an amazing second place, with the report citing its heavily urbanised and wealthy population as key draws for retailers. With such reports playing an important role in helping retailers prioritise their global development strategies, this could have major positive implications for Kuwait’s MGR industry.

Regional Retail Moves - In June 2010 it was announced that premium UK supermarket retailer Waitrose is to launch its first store in Bahrain in a bid to strengthen its position in the high-spending Gulf region. Waitrose is attracted by the Gulf region’s high-spending, expatriate-heavy population and the fact that organised retail remains an only modestly developed channel, particularly outside Dubai. This marks Waitrose's second foray into the Gulf, with the retailer believed to be aiming to grow its international business to about 10% of annual sales over the next 10 years. Having so far focused store launches solely on the Gulf region and with further launches likely to be in the offing, the region will become increasingly important strategically.

Key Risks to Outlook

Dependent on Oil - The maintenance of the current political and economic system which gives the country a great deal of stability, depends on money continuing to flow in, and this in turn depends on high oil prices. If the global economy slows down again and prices fall, or even, over the longer term, alternative fuels take the place of crude, it is unclear as to how accepting to change the population would be.

Inflation Threat Remains - While inflation seems to be under control at the moment, thanks to subdued demand and a strong dollar (to which the Kuwaiti dinar is de facto pegged), it remains a risk on the distant horizon and would have a considerable negative impact on consumer spending.
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Browse the complete Report on: Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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The fiscal problems faced by Greece have prompted us to downgrade our forecasts for food and drink consumption, with austerity measures meaning we now expect a contraction in most headline indicators in 2010. The defensive nature of the industry means it is likely to be hit less hard than industries for which it is easier to withdraw discretionary spending. However, there is likely to be extensive trading down, including a move towards private label options, and these trends could linger beyond the downturn, with consumer caution likely to remain a prevalent feature of the sector.

Headline Industry Data

• 2010 per capita food consumption = -1.1%; forecast to 2014 = -2.0%
• 2010 alcoholic drink sales = -1.1%; forecast to 2014 = -2.9%
• 2010 soft drink sales = -1.1% ; forecast to 2014 = -0.4%
• 2010 mass grocery retail sales = -0.1%; forecast to 2014 = +2.5%

Key Company Trends 

Split up of Vivartia: In April 2010, Greek investment fund Marfin Investment Group (MIG) announced that its food business Vivartia is to sell its bakery and confectionery business unit. MIG will sell the unit for EUR730mn to a group led by Saudi investment group Olayan and Vivartia CEO Spyros Theodoropoulos. MIG has said proceeds from the sale will allow it to deleverage as it looks to adapt to the difficulties in the Greek economic environment. However, the disposal will leave it with less of a hold over the Greek food sector and it is likely to lead to increased competition.

Discounters adapting their strategies: Discount chain Lidl, owned by Germany’s Schwarz Group, has developed a new store concept for Greece as it seeks to overcome the challenges posed by the country’s high land prices. The new stores are to be located in town centres and will be smaller than Lidl’s usual outlets, with fewer than 1,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs). The firm launched its first store under this concept in Thessaloniki, Greece’s second largest city, and is likely to roll out the format if it delivers a better return on investment. Greece’s economic turbulence means the discount sector has high potential, although the problem of high land prices is one that is yet to be fully overcome by either Lidl or its German rival Aldi, which entered the market in 2008

Key Risks To Outlook
Government default: The risks to our outlook are weighted to the downside as we still believe a default is the likely conclusion to Greece’s fiscal problems. Greece’s liabilities are far in excess of its ability to pay and we believe the latest financial support pledges will only push back the recognition of liabilities to a future date. Ultimately, we believe the only options available to Greece are outright default, debt restructuring or a direct transfer of liabilities to eurozone states. The latter two options would still represent a technical default since the government would renege on the original terms of its bond contracts. However, either would clearly be preferable to a full-scale default, which could have very severe consequences for every part of the Greek economy and the EU.
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Browse the complete Report on: Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
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After falling flat in 2009 due to low consumer confidence and high levels of unemployment, consumer spending in Bahrain appears to be recovering and we expect a rebound to 5.0% growth in 2010 and 6.0% in 2011. The Bahraini retail sector is characterised by an increased tendency on the part of consumers to trade up to higher value products, a trend that slowed significantly during the downturn. However, with GDP forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2010, rising again modestly by 1.9% in 2011, a recovery is underway. However, it should be noted that while there are opportunities through premiumisation, the very small size of the Bahraini population, at under 1mn, severely curtails any significant long-term growth opportunities.

Headline Industry Data

• 2010 per capita food consumption = +6.5%; forecast to 2014 = +22.2%
• 2010 soft drinks sales = +4.8%; forecast to 2014 = +32.7%
• 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +10.3%; forecast to 2014 = +63.5%
• 2010 convenience store sales = +18.7%; forecast to 2014 = +125.8%

Key Company Trends

Retail expansion: In June 2010, British premium supermarket retailer Waitrose announced plans to launch its first store in Bahrain in a bid to strengthen its position in the high-spending Gulf region. The 2,000m2 store will be operated under license by Fine Fare Food Market as a part of the retailer’s regional diversification strategy. Waitrose is attracted by the Gulf region’s high-spending, expatriateheavy population and the fact that organised retail remains a modestly developed channel, particularly outside Dubai. This is Waitrose’s second foray into the Gulf, having launched two stores in the UAE in association with Spinneys Dubai. While Bahrain may not appear to be the most obvious choice of market after the UAE, Bahrain is an attractive market due to its positive regulatory environment and a highspending expatriate community that arguably lacks retail options. Most of the investment into retail has so far focused on hypermarkets, which do not have the convenience or premium food and drink options of Waitrose stores.

Investment in agribusiness:In July 2010, it was announced that plans are underway for the establishment of a private poultry firm in Bahrain as a part of a BHD10mn (US$26.6mn) investment project. The government is supporting initiatives spearheaded by the private sector with the aim of promoting the country’s food security. When completed, the facility is expected to produce up to 10mn chickens annually, which will go a long way in meeting consumer demand at affordable prices.

Key Risks To Outlook

A drop in oil prices: While a drop in oil prices does not look likely at the moment, it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility if BMI’s double-dip global downturn scenario plays out. Bahrain will muddle through if the oil price stays high, as is our core scenario, but if it drops again, making the implementation of income tax necessary, then there are serious risks to growth, the size of the expatriate population and the financial sector.

Local dissatisfaction: There is a degree of public discomfort with their government’s relentless pursuit of foreign investment. In a bid to attract foreign business, the government has allowed an increasingly liberal leisure environment and many Bahrainis are unhappy with the level of tolerance of Western cultural imports such as alcohol, which could present a long-term risk for the alcoholic drinks industry, which is well established by regional standards.
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Browse the complete Report on: Australia Food and Drink Report Q4 2010

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BMI View: A mature market, in which we expect reduced consumer confidence in 2011 as a secondary Chinese slowdown and a growing public debt burden weigh on the economy, Australia’s food and drink industry lacks the pull of its Asian emerging market counterparts. That said, high existing consumption levels and susceptibility to higher-value, premium product launches – particularly in categories such as health and functional foods – ensure that expansion and marketing activity remains high as producers and retailers jostle for customers in a highly competitive marketplace.
Headline Industry Data

• Mass Grocery Retail sales to increase by 22.9% to 2014, with the underdeveloped discount sector set to be the key driver of growth – sector sales forecast to increase by 39.7% over that period
• Beer volume sales are forecast to increase by just 2.5% to 1,898mn litres in 2014, although value growth is set to outperform volume growth thanks to ongoing industry premiumisation
• Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 2.6% in 2010, but growth is expected to drop to just 1% in 2011 as the Australian economy, and in turn consumer confidence, is hurt by a slowdown in Chinese demand

Key Trends
Dairy Industry Dynamism – National Foods has again demonstrated its commitment to the country, announcing in April 2010 that it was to invest an additional AUD5.5mn (US$5.1mn) in its milk processing plant in Malanda, Queensland, on top of the AUD1.2mn (US$1.1mn) already spent on the plant in the previous eight months. The company also plans to invest AUD55mn (US$49mn) expanding its Crestmead dairy plant. These investments can be seen as an effort by the company to remain competitive amid increasingly tough operating conditions. Also in this vein, in May, Murray Goulburn Cooperative (MGC) entered into a joint venture with French multinational Danone in a bid to improve its ability to compete and manage volatile dairy prices, while also lifting its domestic competitive position. By entering Australia, Danone will benefit from the high-spending market.
Foster’s Comes To A Decision – After much speculation over what Foster’s Group would do with its underperforming wine business it announced that it would be completely demerging its beer and wine divisions. It is expected that Foster’s beer unit will receive particular attention from potential takeover partners. While the Australian beer market is a mature one, which does not allow for explosive growth opportunities, it still represents a valuable asset in any multinational brewer’s portfolio due to high
existing spending levels and a 104.7-litre annual per capita beer consumption rate. As such, this development is likely to generate significant competition in what is already an intensely competitive industry as brewers compete to land a market leader.
Key Risks To Outlook
A secondary slowdown in China would weigh on demand for Australian exports, in turn impacting domestic economic growth and consumer confidence and spending. Furthermore, there is the risk that a slump in house prices would negatively impact the discretionary spending levels of heavily-indebted Australian consumers.
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Original Source : Market Research