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Throughout 2009 and 2010, Turkey has shown the potential for its mining industry to be placed among the most exciting in the world (especially in regards to gold), but without adequate funding, it will not develop sufficiently for production levels to meet demand. BMI believes that the government has not allocated enough funds for recovery or development in recent years and with the safety of its mines brought into question after a series of fatal accidents, costs will increase as the industry transforms itself and its safety record.
A key focus over the coming years will be in the gold mining sector as the demand for gold across the world is increasing as it is increasingly considered a safe port in the ongoing European currency/debt crisis. Turkey’s gold industry has an estimated 700 tonnes of useable gold and 6,500 tonnes of untapped gold. However, private investment is needed to fully exploit these reserves. Turkey is already the leading gold producer in Europe and BMI forecasts that it could become a major global gold producer should these much-needed funds surface. In 2009, Turkey produced 15 tonnes of gold and this is set to increase to 38 tonnes by the end of 2010. However, this still only covers 10% of Turkey’s domestic demand.
Our outlook shows the value of the Turkish mining sector rising to US$7.45bn in 2010 which is a significant increase on 2009’s figures which stood at US$7.02bn. This is largely due to improvements in gold production as well as increases in nickel and for the first time in four years, an increase in coal production. By 2014, we estimate that the value will have increase to US$11.8bn, representing a CAGR of 9.5%. We also forecast that over the next four years, the rise in production will ensure that the mining contribution to the Turkish GDP remains stable at 1.1% and the number of people employed in the sector will increase, giving the economy a much-needed boost.
Overall, after the global downturn of 2009 there was a slump in exports but we expect the sector to see a recovery at the end of 2010. There has been an increase in overseas companies investing in Turkey’s mining sector and the number of JV’s has also grown, which should ultimately lead to an increase in efficiency and productivity. The steel market bottomed out in December 2009 but H110 has seen the start of a recovery and despite boron exports dropping 26% to 1.1mn tonnes in 2009, experts estimate that Turkey’s stake in the world boron market will rise from 36% to 39% by 2013. We forecast that chromium exports will also steadily increase in the next four years and copper demand will increase driven by the US, EU and Japan.
However, the Turkish mining industry has been plagued by mining accidents over the last year. There have been three major disasters since December 2009 and this has brought safety standards in Turkey’s mines to the forefront of Turkish domestic politics. The government has passed new legislation on this issue, but this will add further expenses to an already underfunded industry and this could potentially lead to a delay in future development.
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