Browse the complete Report on: Saudi Arabia Insurance Report Q3 2010
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But for the underdevelopment of the life segment, Saudi Arabia would be the most attractive prospect for international insurance companies that are looking to operate in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Virtually all other trends are favourable and the market has been opened up to foreign competition. New laws are promoting the development of health insurance. Saudi Arabia’s economy has withstood the downturn in energy prices through 2009 well.
Saudi Arabia’s insurance sector differs from others in the Middle East in that it includes at least one indigenous insurer – Tawuniya – that would rank as a large insurance company in most countries. Figures released by Tawuniya to Tadawul, the local stock exchange on which it is listed, indicate that its premiums nearly doubled over the course of 2009. By contrast, the next two largest players – Medgulf (a regional insurance company substantially owned by Saudi Arabian interests) and Bupa Arabia (the partly-owned subsidiary of UK health insurance giant Bupa) – lost ground.
In this report, we provide a breakdown of the market shares of the various market participants. We also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line, from the point of view of the regulator or trade association. The Saudi Arabian market is dominated by health products, which is double the value of the next most popular insurance, motor. They account for around 40% and 20% of the insurance products marketplace, respectively.
We have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. We have generally been able to use data that has been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. We forecast total premiums in 2009 of SAR17,480mn. This is made up of non-life premiums of SAR16,784mn and life premiums of SAR696mn. In 2014 the corresponding figures are forecast at SAR44,618, SAR43,295mn and SAR1,323mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we forecast that non-life penetration will rise from 1.06% in 2009 to 1.80% in 2014, and life density from US$8 to US$13. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Saudi Arabia is 53.2 out of 100.
Issues To Watch
Islamic Finance
The problems of Dubai World and its affiliates in the UAE in late 2009 have overshadowed the longterm strengths of Islamic finance. The absolute size of the capital pools in Saudi Arabia mean that the country has very strong potential as a market for the issuance and distribution of sukuks. Some estimates suggest that contributions to takaful operators account for about one-fifth of the Saudi Arabian insurance market.
Regional Consolidation
There is, and has been for some time, limited cross border investment by insurance companies based in the Middle East. Medgulf and ARIG are examples of (re)insurers based within the region that operate very effectively across national borders within the GCC states (and slightly further afield). In Saudi Arabia (and all other Arab countries in the region), the vast majority of insurance companies are small by anything other than local standards and lack economies of scale. There is scope for consolidation. Health Insurance
This line has emerged as a major – and growing – line in the non-life segment and should remain so.
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Browse the complete Report on: Saudi Arabia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
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At the time of BMI’s last update of the Saudi Arabia Telecommunications Report, there was very little new data to present. However, we now have access to a full data set for the mobile market at end of 2009, and an almost complete set for the first quarter of 2010, and we present both in this report. There were 44.8mn mobile subscribers in Saudi Arabia at the end of 2009, signifying almost 26% growth during the year. This is a really strong growth figure and takes the penetration rate at the close of 2009 to 176.6%. In the latter part of the year, this growth was fuelled by almost incredible net additions for Mobily, accompanied by similarly impressive performance from Zain. This all came at the expense of incumbent STC, which appears to have lost subscribers in the final quarter, although it began making a recovery in the first quarter of 2010.
Overall, Q110 has shown continuing impressive growth, with exactly the same number of net additions, 3.576 new subscribers, coming to the market during that time, as did during Q409, according to BMI’s estimates. However, we do not really expect this incredible rate to continue throughout the year, and in the coming quarters we anticipate seeing the whole year quarterly average trending towards 2mn net additions..
BMI estimates that more than 12% of Saudi mobile telephony customers were using 3G services at the end of 2009, although no official figures are available for this. This includes those that are using 3G service through a dongle, to connect a computer to the internet. It now appears that it may not be too long before we will need to start forecasting how many may be using LTE technology, since, with the three major mobile operators either testing or starting to roll out LTE infrastructure, we are waiting only for the official release of 4G spectrum for the roll-out of 4G service to begin.
Wireless broadband in general, including 3G services, the coming LTE services and WiMAX, which has been receiving a lot of investment from Mobily in particular, is growing strongly. We anticipate a number of new services leading to strong broadband growth in 2010. Readers should note that BMI has begun including 3G users in the broadband forecasts, as they undeniably form part of the broadband landscape.

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Browse the complete Report on: Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2010

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The new Saudi Arabia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 16.04% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a growing theoretical supply surplus if there is sufficient additional investment in capacity. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces the market share of thermal generation slightly to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewable such as hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Saudi Arabia’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 199TWh, or 18.67% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 19.46% of thermal generation. Oil was the dominant fuel for Saudi Arabia in 2009, accounting for an estimated 61.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 38.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Saudi Arabia’s estimated 2009 market share of 21.32% is set to ease to 20.85% by 2014.
Saudi Arabia now shares third place with Egypt in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, thanks largely to its considerable market size, low level of energy import dependency and particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Saudi Arabia is eight points behind the UAE, so lacks the potential to catch its Gulf rival.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.20% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 growth assumption being 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 25.9mn to 28.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 18% and 3% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 179TWh in 2009 to 208TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a growing generation surplus, assuming 5.1% average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 64.9%, which is near the middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 33.8% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 23.2% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 18.1% in 2010-2014 to 13.7%, representing 34.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 64.9% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.


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Browse complete Report Saudi Arabia Market Take 2010

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This Springboard document highlights the dynamics of the IT market in Saudi Arabia, the economic conditions prevailing in the country and provides systematic analysis of the key market opportunities in the country. The methodology leveraged to support the findings in this report was driven by qualitative research interviews with IT channels, vendors, consultants and customers in Saudi Arabia as well as by extensive desk research.

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Browse the complete Report on: Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: Government support will remain the decisive factor with regards production and consumption of agricultural commodities in Saudi Arabia over our forecast period. The wheat production industry continues its collapse, following the removal of state supports in 2008. The state is also trying to end the country's dependence on barley imports - the country is by far the world's number one barley importer - by slashing import subsidies on the grain while raising them on alternative feed crops. The poultry industry should also experience healthy growth - albeit on farms located abroad and built on the back of hefty state support, of course.

Wheat production dropped to 1.0mn tonnes in 2009/10, according to latest figures. In 2010/11, we are forecasting wheat production to slip to 691,000 tonnes. By 2013/14, this is expected to have reached 333,000 tonnes, representing an 80.6% fall over our 2008/09-2013/14 outlook window.

In 2009, corn consumption is estimated at 1.70mn tonnes. With corn a popular source of poultry feed, we forecast consumption to rise to 1.88mn tonnes in 2010. Over our forecast period we expect consumption to grow to 2.19mn tonnes by 2014, representing strong growth of 29% over the five years.

Milk production in 2010 is forecast to increase marginally, by 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 1.36mn tonnes. To 2014 we expect an increase in production of 12.2% to reach 1.50mn tonnes. Over the same period, demand is expected to outpace supply - consumption is expected to grow 18.8% to reach 1.67mn tonnes in 2014, entailing imports of around 170,000 tonnes of milk.

Real GDP growth is expected to move from 0.1% in 2009 up to 2.2% in 2010. Population is expected to grow from 25.3mn to 26.0mn over the same period.

Although government loans and subsidies encourage domestic producers to expand, most major Saudi investment in poultry production is set to take place overseas in coming years, and growth over our forecast period will be modest. Between 2009 and 2014 production is forecast is increase by a relatively moderate 9.2% to 623,000 tonnes.

While there has been talk of the country axing barley import subsidies entirely, the government must perform a balancing act of sorts. If subsidies are removed too quickly, buyers may find themselves paying a heavy financial cost if they are unable to source enough cheap alternative feed in time. We nevertheless expect that the country's barley imports, and barley consumption, will decline over our forecast period as alternative feed types begin to look more price competitive against barley.

Continued foreign investment in the Saudi dairy market shows there remains much confidence in the potential for demand to grow. Most recently, Dairy Queen announced it would be opening its first store in Saudi Arabia in the first half of 2011. By 2015, the chain expects to have 15 branches in the country.
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Browse the complete Report on : Saudi Arabia Infrastructure Report Q4 2010

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The outlook for the infrastructure sector in Saudi Arabia is improving, with a slew of project announcements in the first months of 2010. Similarly a number of large-scale utilities projects tendered out in the second half of 2009 have also seen movement in early 2010, adding to confidence in the sector. This has helped to boost growth forecasts for the construction sector again with BMI predicting a yearon- year (y-o-y) increase in 2010 of 6.79%, an improvement of nearly one point on last quarter when it was 5.89%. The industry is estimated to be valued at US$22.48bn for 2010. Growth will continue over the forecast period, but at a lower rate averaging just 2.73% up to 2014 when the industry value will be US$28.09bn.
Major project announcements continued apace this quarter with power projects and airports dominating the news. In April 2010, Saudi Arabia announced plans to spend US$80bn increasing its power generation capacity and transmission network. The deputy minister for electricity predicted that the country's power generation capacity will increase by 20,000 megawatts (MW) in the next decade. Projects such as a 1,730MW independent power project (IPP) awarded to a consortium led by France's GDF Suez are expected to drive this.
The airport sector remained buoyant, with the announcement that the first privately owned airport in Saudi Arabia is to be ready by 2014. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) expects to float a tender in May 2010 for the airport. The build, operate and transfer (BOT) contract for the project will be awarded by the end of 2010 or in the beginning of 2011. The construction of the airport is estimated to cost SAR7-8bn (US$1.87-2.13bn). The airport will be able to handle 8mn passengers per year. Saudi Arabia’s business environment remained near the top f the regional ranking; however, it lost one place falling behind Bahrain this quarter with a score of 58.4 to place it in fourth place. In terms of project finance ratings, the country still has room for improvement ranking sixth place this quarter with a score of 66.2. This is a result of weak contract enforceability scores indicating a lack of confidence that contracts are legally binding. Tied to this the PPP legal framework and corruption need some work to become more transparent.


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Browse the complete Report on - Saudi Arabia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010
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Saudi Arabia’s consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, mobile handsets and video, audio and gaming products, is projected at around US$3.8bn in 2010. This is expected to increase to US$4.8bn by 2014, driven by growing popularity of LCD TV sets, notebook computers and other key products, and by ongoing expansion of the electronics retail sector. Saudi Arabia’s addressable market for digital devices is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0%, driven by a steadily growing economy.. Indeed Saudi Arabia is forecast to be one of the strongest economies in the MENA region going forward, and the country will continue to be a lucrative market for consumer electronics vendors. Youthful population demographics, a regional economic boom and a buoyant real estate sector will all drive retail growth, with per capita consumer electronics spend reaching around US$168 by 2014.
Computers
Computer hardware accounted for approximately 46% of Saudi consumer electronics spending in 2009. BMI forecasts Saudi domestic market computer hardware sales (including notebooks and accessories) of US$1.8bn in 2010, up from US$1.6bn in 2009. Computer hardware CAGR for the 2010- 2014 period is forecast at about 7%, with stronger demand for notebooks the main factor driving retail segment growth.
AV
AV devices accounted for about 32% of Saudi consumer electronics spending in 2009. Saudi Arabia’s addressable AV device market is forecast at US$1.2bn in 2010. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% between 2010 and 2014 to reach a value of US$1.4bn, with increased sales of flat panel television sets in 2009 compensating for a contraction in overall TV set demand.
Mobile Handsets
Mobile handset sales accounted for 22% of consumer electronics spending in Saudi Arabia in 2009. Handset sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7% to US$1.1bn by 2014, as mobile subscriber penetration reaches 214%. Sales will be dominated by the replacement market, with growing demand for smartphones, PDAs and 3G handsets as the proportion of 3G users rises to over 38% of the mobile subscriber base.
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