Browse the complete Report on: Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
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BMI’s Q3 2010 Telecommunications Report on Nigeria contains updated forecasts that anticipate the development of the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors through to the end of 2014. Our new internet forecast for Nigeria incorporates the latest figures for internet use in Nigeria from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and other sources. It shows a rapid increase in internet penetration in the country between 2007 and 2009. This is indicative of the overall progress made in the ICT sector in Nigeria following the strong growth of the telecoms sector in the last decade. The mobile sector grew faster in Q110 than in the same period a year earlier. However, for the 12 months to March 2010, the market recorded a significantly slower growth than in any other year since the full liberalisation of the telecoms sector, growing in the first quarter of 2010, albeit at a slower rate than the previous quarter. According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the country’s mobile market gained only 12.5mn subscribers in the 12 months to March 2010, reflecting a 19.5% y-o-y growth. This was significantly lower than the 19.5mn new subscribers in the 12 months to March 2009, which reflected a 44.1% y-o-y growth. BMI believes this could be an early sign of a tailing off in the Nigerian mobile market given the near saturation of mobile services in urban and semi-urban areas. By contrast, the majority of rural areas are still underserved. High roll-out cost, low revenue intake and poor levels of security are some of the factors limiting rural roll-out in Nigeria. To this end, BMI believes that the market will see slower growth going forward even though mobile penetration still hovers around just 50%.
Perhaps the biggest development in the mobile sector in the last few months is the introduction of SIM registration. After many months of uncertainty, the regulator, with full backing from the government, commenced the exercise on May 1 2010. Buyers of new SIMs in the country are now required to register their personal and biometric data with their preferred service provider for onward storage in a central database that can be accessed by the regulator and some security agencies in the country. Registration of existing SIMs is expected to start in August 1 2010 and will last for six months, according to the NCC. Meanwhile, the NCC is mulling the introduction of number portability before the end of 2010. However, BMI is pessimistic that this will take effect as scheduled given in view of the considerable resources that will be channelled towards SIM registration in Nigeria. We expect both regulations to have a significant impact on mobile growth in Nigeria given the high incidence of multiple ownership.
The fixed-line sector continues to underperform in Nigeria. Despite signs of growth in the latter part of 2009, fixed-line subscriptions declined in Q110, almost wiping out the entire gains of the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the sale of fixed-line incumbent Nitel continues to be covered in controversy. A seven-man committee set up by President Goodluck Jonathan to investigate the much criticised auction in March 2010 only submitted its report to the National Council on Privatisation in June 2010, almost three months behind schedule. New Generation Communications Ltd had emerged as the preferred bidder with a total bid of US$2.5bn.


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Browse the complete Report on: Saudi Arabia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
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At the time of BMI’s last update of the Saudi Arabia Telecommunications Report, there was very little new data to present. However, we now have access to a full data set for the mobile market at end of 2009, and an almost complete set for the first quarter of 2010, and we present both in this report. There were 44.8mn mobile subscribers in Saudi Arabia at the end of 2009, signifying almost 26% growth during the year. This is a really strong growth figure and takes the penetration rate at the close of 2009 to 176.6%. In the latter part of the year, this growth was fuelled by almost incredible net additions for Mobily, accompanied by similarly impressive performance from Zain. This all came at the expense of incumbent STC, which appears to have lost subscribers in the final quarter, although it began making a recovery in the first quarter of 2010.
Overall, Q110 has shown continuing impressive growth, with exactly the same number of net additions, 3.576 new subscribers, coming to the market during that time, as did during Q409, according to BMI’s estimates. However, we do not really expect this incredible rate to continue throughout the year, and in the coming quarters we anticipate seeing the whole year quarterly average trending towards 2mn net additions..
BMI estimates that more than 12% of Saudi mobile telephony customers were using 3G services at the end of 2009, although no official figures are available for this. This includes those that are using 3G service through a dongle, to connect a computer to the internet. It now appears that it may not be too long before we will need to start forecasting how many may be using LTE technology, since, with the three major mobile operators either testing or starting to roll out LTE infrastructure, we are waiting only for the official release of 4G spectrum for the roll-out of 4G service to begin.
Wireless broadband in general, including 3G services, the coming LTE services and WiMAX, which has been receiving a lot of investment from Mobily in particular, is growing strongly. We anticipate a number of new services leading to strong broadband growth in 2010. Readers should note that BMI has begun including 3G users in the broadband forecasts, as they undeniably form part of the broadband landscape.

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Browse the complete Report on: Egypt Telecommunication Market
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In the latest update of the Egypt Telecommunications Report, we have analysed the latest data available from the Egyptian telecoms market. This has not led to big revisions of the forecasts, as the data for the first part of 2010 appear to fit very well within our previous expectations.
In the last update, we revised our forecasts for all sectors, with changes in fixed-line particularly notable. Egypt’s fixed-line sector contracted by 11.9%, which saw its fixed lines in service reach 10.313mn. That the country has managed to hold onto growth in the sector compared with the global decline in fixed lines is perhaps related in part to the deployment of fixed lines in ADSL connections. However, with mobile penetration rates now passed 70%, it is not surprising that greater mobile substitution is taking the place of fixed lines, which has contributed to the latter’s decline. We have found no reason to changes these. There were 58.628mn mobile subscribers in Egypt at the end of March 2010. BMI estimates the mobile sector to expand by 23% in 2010 to reach 69.383mn subscribers and a penetration rate of 85.1%. By the end of 2014, we forecast penetration of 132.4%, which, however, contains a number of inactive SIMs. Mobile broadband connections over 3G networks are seen as the second largest technology access group next to ADSL lines in the broadband market and have helped to bring connectivity to areas where there is a lack of fixed-line network coverage. No-one, neither the various agencies nor the operators, is at present providing good data on the number of 3G dongles in use in Egypt, but BMI’s own observations of the market suggest that they are popular among high-end users and businesses. Some have suggested that they may soon overtake fixed-line connections as the principle form of connection to the internet in Egypt.
Egypt has moved down one place within our Telecoms Business Environment Ratings in this latest update. Falling ARPUs have led to a drop in the Telecoms Market score, but the overall rating for Egypt was bolstered slightly by improvement from a Country Risk perspective.
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Browse the complete Report on:  Iraq Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
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BMI’s Q310 Iraq Telecommunications Report includes full year figures for 2009, following data published by the country’s two largest operators Zain and Asiacell, together with changes to our forecasts. Furthermore, we have provided latest data for March 2010, after Asiacell published its figures and combined with media reports on figures for Zain and the few other smaller operators that occupy the market.
At the end of 2009, there were 20.312mn mobile subscribers in Iraq, following 61,000 net additions in the final quarter. The market’s Q409 performance was lower than in previous quarters. During Q309, there were 373,000 net additions, in Q209 there were 487,000 net additions and in Q109, there were a impressive 1.078mn net additions added to the market. The lower performance in Q409 is attributed to the government’s prepaid registration scheme. As for the first quarter of 2010, this was not able to match the performance of that in Q109, but the market did see 489,000 net additions to reach a total of 20.801mn subscribers. This lower performance was the result of an estimated decline in Zain’s subscriber base, which reached 10.07mn, as it continued to face competitive pressures from second-ranked Asiacell. Asiacell continues to place pressure on the market leader through price competition as well as its network expansion in order to reach its goal of becoming a national operator. In June 2010, the operator announced that it had expanded its network to the governate of Anbar, including the cities of Rawah, Ubaidi, Karbalah, Husaibah and Haditha, as part of its drive to achieve countrywide coverage in 2010. Asiacell's Chairman Faruk Mustafa Rasool said the operator prides itself on being the first to provide coverage on a national scale.
Since we last reported that the Iraq mobile market was to see the UAE-based operator Etisalat purchase a majority stake in Kurdish operator Korek Telecom, following media reports in February 2010. Etisalat’s CFO announced in April 2010, that it had no interest in the operator and was not nearing any deal with Korek. Furthermore, Etisalat, in June 2010, expressed interest in Iraq's fourth mobile licence. In May 2010, the Baghdad government approved a fourth licence to operate mobile services in the country. The awardee of the licence will hold a 65% stake in the venture, and the rest will be owned by the Iraqi communications ministry.
Iraq rose to ninth place from tenth position in BMI’s most recent set of Business Environment Ratings for the Middle East and North Africa. However, Iraq’s own scores have seen no further changes this quarter.
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Browse the complete Report on:  North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2010

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In this quarter’s update of BMI’s North Africa Telecommunications report, not only have we included the latest mobile subscriber and ARPU figures for the region’s leading mobile network operators, but we have also utilised the latest year-end 2009 data for fixed-line and internet/broadband usage figures from national regulatory authorities and reliable sources such as the World Bank/International Telecommunication Union (ITU). This has extended to certain historical data, which allows us to see that there was more progress in certain markets than previously considered. These new data have fed through to our forecasts – although the general growth trends continue to hold true – as well as to our Business Environment Ratings, which see downgrades for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as well as an improvement to our assessment for the mysterious market of Libya.
In Morocco and Tunisia, new mobile operators launched services in the first half of 2010. Moroccan fixed-line operator Wana has broken through to the mobile market after more than a decade successfully migrating telephone customers onto its wireless local loop platform. Moving those customers on to a fully mobile network should present few difficulties unless the existing operators decide to aggressively compete on the pricing front. Meanwhile, in Tunisia, France Télécom’s Orange will be competing with two well-established market players in a challenging environment. Orange’s offering will be 3G-centric and will be linked to its new fixed-line and broadband platform, so it does at least have some unique selling points on which it can trade. The real question will be whether Tunisians in general will be able to afford its services.
A new mobile player is expected in Libya in the near future. UAE-based Etisalat claims to have won the tender for the licence, even as the government continues to mull over the sale of stakes in the two existing operators. However, the government is proving slow to conclude negotiations with Etisalat, which has a good track record for finding growth opportunities in challenging markets. The problem may not be linked to the price bid for the licence, but rather to the Libyan government’s reluctance to allow an independent player into the market. With a new regulator in place and a new emphasis on ICT modernisation and expansion, BMI hopes to see some movement on this issue before the end of the year.
Algeria can also be described as a challenging market and mobile growth lost its impetus in Q110 after a sterling performance in Q409. We now see that the fourth quarter growth was abnormal and that more sluggish growth will characterise the market from this point on. We would expect to see operators become more proactive in marketing attractively priced services to revitalise the market, but the regulator has been reluctant to let this happen. Whether this can be ascribed to uncertainty regarding the continued participation of Orascom Telecom Holdings via its Djezzy unit, remains to be seen. Orascom would certainly like to exit the market if it can, but its partner – the government – is determined to both keep Orascom on board and penalise it for certain business transactions.


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Browse the complete Report on:  Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010

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For the first time we have included broadband forecasts in our Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report as this area of the telecoms market has such high potential. While the focus is and will remain on mobile services for some time, there is scope for the expansion of broadband services in the region. However, a number of factors will dictate whether broadband services really take off, including literacy levels, the cost of computers and internet equipment and the reach of networks. With fixed-line networks limited to major towns and cities, the proliferation of broadband services has been slow and restricted.
Only Kazakhstan stands out as having any real broadband market, reaching 8.8% penetration at the end of 2009. Continued strong growth is forecast for the market. While there will be growth in the other Central Asia markets, none are expected to achieve 1% penetration by 2014 without considerable changes in the reach of networks and services. Despite there being more competition for services in the internet market than in the fixed-line market, incumbent operators still dominate and the number of subscribers in Central Asian markets – with the exception of Kazakhstan – is only a few thousand.
Political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan has filtered through to the telecoms market as the privatisation of the incumbent was reversed by the interim government. The sale of a 78% stake in Kyrgyztelecom was said to have favoured ‘friends’ of the ousted president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and the stake was taken back into government hands. BMI believes a strong financial investor would benefit Kyrgyztelecom, but also one with the technical expertise to help bring new products, services and technologies to the market. No timetable has been given for the re-privatisation and BMI expects the operator to make few new moves in the meantime.
Although broadband has strong potential in growth terms, the mobile market continues to be the largest in terms of the number of subscribers. By 2014, BMI expects all five markets to have more than 100% penetration, with four passing this mark in 2012. The rivalry between the owners of several of the mobile operators in the region, not to mention the addition of the technical expertise, has driven subscriptions up and generated exceptionally high growth rates.


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Browse the complete Report on:  Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2010

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Since our last update on the Telecommunications markets of Cambodia and Laos, there has been some new data published by these two countries’ various telecoms operators. Specially, limited data has been published by Thailand’s Thaicom, which controls Cambodian mobile operator Mfone (CamShin), and has a stake in Laos’ largest operator Lao Telecommunications (LTC). Q1 2010 mobile subscriber figures have also been published by TeliaSonera and Russian telecoms giant VimpelCom for their respective mobile businesses in Cambodia. We expect a fuller and more detailed set of figures to become available in time for our next update.
Based on the available data, we have ventured to make some slight changes to our forecasts for the mobile and 3G subscriber markets of both Cambodia and Laos. For example, we now believe that the Laotian 3G subscriber base is smaller than we previously thought. Further, we now estimate that Laos had around 35,000 3G customers at the end of 2009, up from approximately 15,000 a year earlier. This was equivalent to just 0.6% of the total customer base. Mobile market leader LTC accounts for around half of the country’s 3G subscriber base. The sector’s future growth depends partly on the successful launch of 3G services by VimpelCom and Star Telecom (owned by Vietnam’s Viettel).
With regard to mobile subscriber growth in general, the latest figures from Thaicom suggest that the Laotian market continued to grow steadily in Q1 2010. However, Thaicom has suggested that the total Cambodian mobile subscriber base saw a 12% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in the first quarter of 2010. According to Thaicom, the drop in customer numbers came on the back of new regulations, which restrict the number of mobile SIMs an individual customer can hold. Given that very little subscriber data has been published by Cambodia’s other operations for the first three months of 2010, it is difficult to verify Thaicom’s arguments. Indeed, fierce competition in the Cambodian mobile sector does appear to have resulted in a decrease in number of Mfone subscribers in Q1 2010. However, according to the subscriber data published by TeliaSonera (for Star-Cell) and VimpelCom (for Sotelco), both operators experienced exceptionally strong customer growth in Cambodia in the first three months of 2010.
Cambodia and Laos have swapped positions in our latest set of business environment ratings for Asia Pacific. Laos now sits in 13th position ahead of Cambodia. The main reason for the change relates to the higher and lower Country Risk scores which Laos and Cambodia respectively receive. The lower Country Risk score, which Cambodia receives this quarter reflects the way the country has struggled to recover from the lingering effects of the recession. In June, union officials announced the start of a three day strike to pressure the government to raise minimum wages for garment workers by 40%. Meanwhile, Laos’ higher Country Risk score reflects the increased investment the country has been receiving. Recent months have seen several investment deals signed with Vietnamese corporations. It was also recently announced that Laos and Thailand had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the construction of a fourth so-called Friendship Bridge expected to be completed in 2012.

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Browse the complete Report on:  United Kingdom Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
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This update of BMI’s UK Telecommunications Report for Q310 contains our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets through to the end of 2014. The mobile market, though expected to continue expanding, will do so at a much slower rate as it approaches saturation. The contraction in the fixed-line market will also continue at a slower rate as operators increase bundled services.
Following the regulatory approval of the merger between T-Mobile UK and Orange UK, a new holding company called Everything Everywhere has been formed to manage both operators. The two brands will continue to trade side by side in the market, targeting different segments, while the integration of backroom operations is performed by the new management of Everything Everywhere. A timeframe for the complete integration of both operators into one brand is yet to be disclosed.
The UK mobile market suffered a decline in the first three months of 2010. After an impressive 2.37% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase and 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase at the end of December 2009, the market fell by 0.2% q-o-q at the end of March 2010 to 79.855mn subscribers. The performance in Q110 mirrors a similar trend in Q109, when the market slid into subscriber net loss following a strong performance the previous quarter. Four of the five mobile operators – Vodafone, T-Mobile, Orange and 3 – reported subscriber net losses in Q110, largely driven by losses to prepaid subscriptions. O2, which also lost prepaid subscribers in the quarter, recorded an impressive postpaid subscriber growth to end the quarter with subscriber net gain. BMI expects the market to expand but at a slower rate given that it is approaching saturation, with penetration hovering around 130%. We also reiterate our view that future growth in the market will be driven by increase in postpaid subscriptions as customers opt for high-end smartphones, often offered with competitively priced contracts.
BT continues to lead in the broadband market but much of its lead has been eroded by Talk Talk, which has migrated Tiscali subscribers unto its own network. Other alternative providers, including O2 and Orange, have reported strong uptakes of their broadband services. Cable operator Virgin Media and satellite broadcaster BSkyB have also reported strong broadband subscriber growth on their networks. Although the fixed-line sector has been in a state of decline for years now, and is likely to remain so in the short term, we see it experiencing increased activity in the medium-to-long term. One key factor we expect to have an impact on the sector is the IPTV initiative Project Canvas. In June 2010, the BBC Trust gave its approval for the project that brings together members from the telecoms and broadcasting industries. With BT having received permission to offer triple-play packages, we expect it and Talk Talk to offer bundled packages including fixed-line services.
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Browse the complete Report on: Venezuela Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
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BMI’s latest quarterly update on Venezuela’s telecommunications market sees significant changes to our five-year forecast for the growth of the country’s mobile subscriber base. The latest data from Venezuelan telecoms regulator Codatel suggests that both the number of registered and active mobile customers shrank in Q110. The country’s second largest operator Movistar, which is owned by Spain’s Telefónica, reported a significant drop in customer numbers in the first quarter, owing to the deduction of inactive prepaid users from the operator’s reported total. State-owned Movilnet also saw a shrinking customer base in the first quarter. As a result of inactive customer deductions, Venezuela’s mobile market penetration rate fell to 102.9% in March, from 104.5% in the previous quarter, according to the regulator’s data. Furthermore, even when only active mobile subscriptions are counted, the penetration rate appears to have fallen in the first quarter of the year, dropping 0.8 percentage points to reach 98.4%. This development suggests that a larger number of mobile users fell into the inactive category as defined by the regulator.

We believe that recent trends in Venezuela’s mobile market point to increasing saturation and the likelihood of limited future growth. Our newly revised forecast for the mobile sector envisages market penetration reaching 99.5% at the end of 2014. Between 2010 and 2014, we predict that the market will grow at an annual average rate of around 2.3%. Although further growth will be supported by Venezuela’s expanding population, we do not expect the penetration rate, based on active users, to cross the 100% mark.

Despite our expectation of limited future growth for Venezuela’s mobile market, second-ranked Movistar continues to report steady growth in the number of postpaid subscribers, as well as higher-spending data service users. BMI believes it is these segments which offer longer-term growth potential. Indeed, there are considerable opportunities for the Venezuelan operators to migrate prepaid users onto contract services.

Although, our fixed-line telephony forecast remains unchanged this quarter, we have made some slight revisions to our internet user and broadband subscriber forecasts, predicting stronger growth in our latter forecast years. In the long-term, we predict that mobile broadband services will emerge as an important way of providing high-speed internet connectivity. In the meantime, we believe that the prepaid broadband service offered by national incumbent operator CANTV (Compañía Anónima Nacional Teléfonos de Venezuela) will remain a popular means for encouraging first-time subscribers to get online.

This quarter sees Venezuela rise from ninth to fifth position in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for Latin America. The new improved position for Venezuela is the result of a higher score in all four of the categories surveyed by BMI. Although Venezuela scores above average for the region in the Industry Rewards and Country Rewards categories, it scores well below average in the Industry Risks and Country Risks categories.
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Browse the complete Report on: Chile Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
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BMI has introduced ARPU forecasts for the Chilean market this quarter, with data showing a declining trend over the next five years. Chile’s mobile operators reported a boost in ARPU in 2008 but the decrease returned in 2009, a trend BMI sees continuing. However, in comparison to other markets in Latin America, the decline will be slight as pressures on voice service revenues are countered by the strong interest in mobile broadband and mobile data services. BMI expects mobile data will continue to grow as a proportion of operators’ overall revenues, providing some relief to the low cost subscribers entering the market.

Data from mobile operators show an increase in mobile subscribers in the first quarter of 2010, with growth higher than the four previous quarters, seeming to show no real impact from the earthquake in February. The increase in subscriptions may be a reaction to the earthquake, as Chileans sought to contact friends and family in the aftermath of the event. Operators offered free messages and extensions for paying mobile bills in order to ease the burden on those most affected by the earthquake. The response by operators and the regulator, Subtel, highlight the developed nature of Chile’s telecoms market with networks brought back on line within days of the event. Incumbent Telefónica de Chile also announced it would be replacing its cabling in the region worst hit by the earthquake with fibre-optic cabling, bringing in the latest technology to the region that will help boost the local economies and businesses in the areas affected.

Chile’s telecoms operators have long been very forward looking, offering the latest services to the market and competing effectively. For this reason Chile has remained near the top of BMI’s Business Environment Ratings. Its weaknesses are few, with a strong Country and Industry Risk scores. However, with a small population, opportunities are more limited, which, when coupled with difficult topography, hold Chile back from reclaiming its place at the very top of the Ratings.

Nonetheless, Chile continues to be a highly developed telecoms market, and one that is emulated by several of its peers. Data from Subtel indicate that around one third of broadband subscribers are using a mobile connection for their internet requirements. At this rate of growth, mobile broadband may well become the preferred technology in future although fixed operators have rolled out faster broadband speeds in an attempt to maintain their competitiveness. The competition for dominance in the broadband market continues to heat up, as fixed operators face down the strong challenge presented by mobile operators with broadband services.
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Original Source : Chile Telecommunications Market
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