Browse the complete Report on: United States Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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Having been ravaged by 2009's global economic downturn, a recovering US economy has helped the US freight transport sector back on its feet in 2010, with most transport modes registering steady pick-ups in volumes in the first half of the year. The American Trucking Association (ATA)'s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose by 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2010 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, representing the largest gain recorded by the index since January 2005 and the fifth consecutive month of y-o-y increases. April's rise meant that US truck tonnage volumes had grown by 6% y-o-y in 2010. Meanwhile, according to figures provided by the Port Authority of New York/ New Jersey, freight volumes handled at JFK Airport totalled 115,000 tonnes in April, up by 31.6% y-o-y from the facility's 2009 nadir, though they fell by 5.1% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis.
Things are also looking more positive from a company perspective, and freight transport operators have taken the rebound in economic activity as a cue to expand capacity and chase potential mergers and acquisitions. There is a sense that not all firms are yet out of the woods, however, and despite an improving short-term outlook a number of challenges remain. Indeed, in Q110, the largest US trucking line YRC Worldwide registered a net loss of US$274mn in Q110 and over the same period, the company's revenue was US$1.1bn, down 29% y-o-y and 7% q-o-q. The company's sales were badly affected by harsh weather and shipper concern over its future with industry observers wary that the trucker may be facing a further liquidity squeeze after only narrowly escaping bankruptcy in the final weeks of 2009.
Though the prevailing mood for the sector has so far been positive in 2010, continued uncertainty surrounding the strength and longetivity of the US economic recovery and a nervous consumer and manufacturing sector mean that operators are unlikely to rest on their laurels. With these concerns firmly in mind, for most transport modes BMI is forecasting recoveries which are moderate rather than remarkable and expects the rate of growth for most sub-sectors to relent somewhat in 2011 as the country's economy loses some of its early momentum.
The US port sector is expected to show one of the industry's stronger growth patterns in 2010 with the country's two largest west and Gulf Coast terminals, the port of Los Angeles (LA) and the Port of Houston, forecast to register respective increases of 6.7% and 5.3% in their total tonnage throughput after no growth, and in LA's case an 18.4% contraction in handling in 2009. At the port of New York/ New Jersey, however, the country's largest east coast facility, the rate of increase over 2010 is forecast to be minimal at just 0.8% y-o-y.
The US air freight sector has also enjoyed strong growth metrics and is on course for a sizeable rebound in 2010 after 2009's 10.2% contraction in freight tonne-km flown. BMI forecasts a reverse of 8.3% with carriers projected to fly 21.6bn freight tonne-km.
Road and rail freight, meanwhile, are expected to experience a more moderate rate of growth in keeping with the relatively narrow contraction in volumes seen in 2009. BMI forecasts US rail freight volumes to increase by 4.5% y-o-y to 2.49trn freight tonne-km after a fall of 5.5% in 2009. Road freight, having contracted by 3.2% in 2009 is predicted to increase by 2.9% in 2010 to 1.99trn freight tonne-km. The US's in-land waterways should display an ever more slender growth pattern with total volumes carried predicted to increase by 0.5% to 646.99bn freight tonne-km after contracting by 0.7% in 2009. The recovery in the US freight transport sector is largely consistent with the projected uptick in the country's total trade volumes which in 2009 decreased by 11.9% in real terms. In 2010 we forecast the country's total trade to grow by 7.8% with imports and exports set to increase by 7.7% and 7.9% respectively.
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Browse the complete Report on: Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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At a time of fiscal pressure, Turkey's transport infrastructure is being gradually opened up to private sector investment. At the end of April, the route of the third Bosporus Bridge was finally announced by Turkey's government. BMI notes that this not only solved the issue of the location of the bridge itself, but also set in motion the much anticipated privatisation of a number of highways and the two Bosporus bridges; a privatisation that was predicated upon the existence of concrete plans for the route of the third bridge. The government had been procrastinating over announcing the route, fuelling land speculation on possible locations in several coastal areas of Istanbul. The final route, announced by the country's transport minister, Binali Yildirim, will be near the northern tip of the Bosporus Straits, between Garipce in the European side of the city and Poyraz in the Asian side. The bridge will extend for 1.3km and will be part of the Northern Marmara Highway that will run from Istanbul to Kocaeli and Sakarya. It will be built under a build, operate and transfer (BOT) model, with the tender to take place before the end of 2010. It is unclear, thus far, from the reports in the Turkish press, if the entire Northern Marmara Highway, including the bridge, will be tendered out, or if they will be separate contracts. The estimated cost for the bridge is US$6bn and construction is expected to take between four and five years to complete.
Half way through 2010, the 'macro' operating environment looks quite strongly favourable for the Turkish freight transport sector. The government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is democratic and stable. Most importantly the economy is experiencing a strong and broadly based recovery, leading BMI to characterise it as among the best-positioned emerging markets over the long term. We believe that the strength of the internal market, diversified industrial sectors, a healthy capital market, a pro-reform government and high long-term leverage potential all suggest Turkey will outperform its European emerging market peers. After contracting by nearly 5% in 2009, we expect GDP growth of 4.9% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011 (when the possibility of a global 'double-dip' slowdown will be an important factor). On the medium term to 2014, annual GDP growth will average a healthy 5.2%. Politically, the government's cooling relations with Israel may be part of a pattern where Ankara refocuses relations on Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East, diversifying its trade and therefore also its shipping and port links.
We expect airfreight volume to recover healthily in 2010 with 9.1% growth to 1.45mn tonnes, almost but not quite restoring the 10.0% drop experienced in recession-dominated 2009. Supported by strong fundamentals, we see average annual airfreight volume growth of 7.6%, well ahead of GDP, in the period running up to 2014. The only data series available for road transport is 'road freight carried' (volume x distance). We estimate that this indicator fell by 5.3% in 2009 and will recover by 3.6% in 2010. The trucking sector will benefit from general growth across the Turkish economy, but BMI sees it expanding at an annual average of 3.3% over our forecast period, which will lag behind GDP. Turkey's rail network is small compared to the country's other freight transport modes. In 2010 we expect railfreight volume to grow by 5%. Looking forward, railfreight will grow by 4.7% per year.
The downturn in European trade in 2009 had a massive impact on business at the Port of Ambarli (POA). General and liquid bulk cargoes fell by 57.1%. The recovery is now under way, but it will take four years before pre-2009 levels of business are restored. In 2010 we expect POA tonnage to grow by 31.1%, followed by 27.4% growth in 2011. The recovery will stretch across our five-year forecast period to 2014, during which average annual tonnage growth will reach 23.1%. The number of boxes handled at Ambarli was also hard hit by 2009's recession, contracting by 44.1%. Here, too, pre-2009 levels will not be achieved again until 2013.
In real terms Turkey's total trade (exports + imports) slumped by 10.3% in 2009, but will recover almost all that lost ground in 2010, with growth of 9.4%. Trade will expand a further 9.0% in 2011, and the average annual rate of growth over the next five years will be a healthy 8.0%. Rising living standards and a growing middle class will play their part in boosting import demand, which will grow by a mediumterm average of 8.3% per annum, ahead of exports at 7.6% per annum. In nominal terms exports will rise 19.3% in 2010 to US$169.9bn, while imports will grow 25.1% to US$187.1bn. Turkey will continue to run a balance of trade deficit for the rest of our medium-term forecast period running to 2014. We see downside risks to out Turkish freight forecast. The first is that, despite the country's domestically driven economic recovery, a harsher-than-expected 'double-dip' slowdown in Europe could have an impact, reducing trade, growth and freight demand in 2011. The second risk is political: although Ankara seems to be seeking a 'controlled' cooling in its relations with Israel, there is a possibility that the process could get somewhat out of hand and have a greater-than-desired impact on bilateral trade.


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Browse the complete Report on: Thailand Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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Damco, the logistics division of Denmark-based shipping group AP Moller Maersk, has expanded its operations in Thailand by starting operations at a new export freight hub in Bangkok and by launching a cross-border trucking service linking Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The freight hub is connected to the main Thai Port of Laem Chabang through a daily container barge service and offers a variety of services including barging, warehousing, import and export handling, customs clearance, and other valueadded services. The barge service will enable shippers to bypass Lad Kra Bang Terminal's Inland Container Depot in Bangkok.
The cross-border trucking service, as Damco believes, will allow it to capture a share of growing trilateral trade volumes between the three countries by providing a faster and more cost-efficient alternative to existing sea and air freight. The move supports BMI's view that the increased trade integration in South East Asia will create opportunities for freight transport operators in the region.
Damco is attracted to the growing market which is recovering after 2009 downturn. Affected by the global recession, Thailand's total trade plummeted by an estimated 16.07% in real terms in 2009, and we see a good 10.5% rebound in 2010, followed by 7.5% growth in 2011. In 2010 imports will grow more strongly than exports in real terms (13.0% vs. 8.5%). Improvements in total trade will have a knock on effect on Thai freight volumes.
BMI Freight Transport desk's forecast for Thailand's air freight goes in line with the Internationl Air Transport Association (IATA)'s forecasted year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 16.2% of Asia Pacific region's combined airline passenger and cargo traffic in 2010. We see Thailand's air freight volume recovering by 7.15% y-o-y in 2010 to 1.25mn tonnes, after an estimated contraction of 10.75% in 2009.
We expect cargo handled at two of Thailand's key ports, the Port of Laem Chabang (PLC) and Port of Bangkok (POB), to grow at a moderate to good rate in 2010. In general tonnage terms, PLC will be out in front, with 11.5% growth to 51.47mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes grew an estimated 4.1% to 46.15mn tonnes in 2009). 2010 total volume at Port of Bangkok will gain a more subdued 6.6% to 16.6mn tonnes; 2009 volumes there dropped by 12.4% to 15.57mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we expect the volumes to recover 11.03% to 15.79mn tonnes in 2010, after falling an estimated 15.67% in 2009. The pace should slow down in 2011 with a growth of 7.68%.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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The South African public sector does not have the funds it needs to invest in the long-term development of the country's freight transport infrastructure. In mid-2010 there were early signs of a new approach to the problem. In June Transnet Freight Rail announced plans to open up all 7,300km of its branch lines, by offering private concessions, which would operate the lines over a fixed long-term period. The move is geared towards attracting investment to the often underinvested in and frequently under-used branch line sector; while also freeing up much-needed funds for the state-controlled logistics company in particular, allowing it to focus efforts on its ambitious five-year capital expenditure (capex) plan. A decline in volumes has made it difficult for Transnet to maintain the necessary level of investment in South Africa's branch line sector, which accounts for 35% of the country's entire 20,953km rail network, of which only 3,928km are currently operational. Given this poor state of repair and with an ZAR80.5bn (US$10.4bn) capex spending programme to execute over the next five years, which Transnet is struggling to fund, BMI is not surprised that the company is seeking to open up this neglected area to private investment, as it concentrates on mainstream freight services. However, while BMI views Transnet's decision to privatise this part of its network as a positive one for the company, it remains unclear how much interest is likely to be generated among private investors. For instance, much of the track in question was built over 100 years ago and subsequently requires a great deal of investment; while other stretches were closed altogether as they were no longer commercially viable.
The operating environment was broadly favourable to the local freight transport sector in mid-2010. The country remained Sub-Saharan Africa's strongest and most stable democracy and its role hosting the World Cup football championship was bringing in economic benefits and raising its profile in the eyes of international investors. BMI has revised our 2010 GDP growth forecast upwards to 3.0% (from 2.6%) previously. On the medium term to 2014 we see annual growth averaging 4.1%. While the recovery is in progress, our analysts nevertheless warn it is a rather tepid affair, because the consumer sector remains under pressure, private investment has been weak, and there are concerns over continuing problems with electric power supply.
Total tonnage handled by South Africa's main ports will recover in 2010 after the 2009 slump. At the Port of Cape Town (POCT) we see volume gaining 3.5%, after a 4.6% slump in 2009. Our medium-term prediction is for only moderate growth, with an annual average of 3.6%, trailing behind the rate of GDP expansion in the country. At the Port of Durban (POD) both the recovery and the medium-term outlook are more muted. We see volume there gaining 2.4% in 2010, after a 9.6% fall in 2009. The medium-term outlook at Durban is for annual volume growth of a very modest 1.9%. Box traffic growth will remain modest at Cape Town, where there are capacity constraints, but will be stronger at Durban. In real terms, we see exports gaining 11.1% in 2010, in contrast to a 19.5% fall in 2009. Imports should grow at a lower 6.0% (after slumping by 17.4% in 2009). Over the next five years we expect overall trade (imports + exports) to grow by an annual average of 7.3%. Exports will lead the way with 8.4% annual average growth, while imports will expand by 6.4% per annum.
The risks to our South Africa freight forecasts are on the downside. Perhaps the most immediate risk is of a post-World Cup resumption of strike action in the ports sector, or by railway workers responsible for freight deliveries to the ports. This could have a potentially serious effect on the flow of the country's exports. A second-line risk concerns the wider political scene: disagreements within the ruling ANC or allegations of corruption in the administration could have a negative impact on investor confidence.


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Browse the complete Report on: South Africa Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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The South African public sector does not have the funds it needs to invest in the long-term development of the country's freight transport infrastructure. In mid-2010 there were early signs of a new approach to the problem. In June Transnet Freight Rail announced plans to open up all 7,300km of its branch lines, by offering private concessions, which would operate the lines over a fixed long-term period. The move is geared towards attracting investment to the often underinvested in and frequently under-used branch line sector; while also freeing up much-needed funds for the state-controlled logistics company in particular, allowing it to focus efforts on its ambitious five-year capital expenditure (capex) plan. A decline in volumes has made it difficult for Transnet to maintain the necessary level of investment in South Africa's branch line sector, which accounts for 35% of the country's entire 20,953km rail network, of which only 3,928km are currently operational. Given this poor state of repair and with an ZAR80.5bn (US$10.4bn) capex spending programme to execute over the next five years, which Transnet is struggling to fund, BMI is not surprised that the company is seeking to open up this neglected area to private investment, as it concentrates on mainstream freight services. However, while BMI views Transnet's decision to privatise this part of its network as a positive one for the company, it remains unclear how much interest is likely to be generated among private investors. For instance, much of the track in question was built over 100 years ago and subsequently requires a great deal of investment; while other stretches were closed altogether as they were no longer commercially viable.
The operating environment was broadly favourable to the local freight transport sector in mid-2010. The country remained Sub-Saharan Africa's strongest and most stable democracy and its role hosting the World Cup football championship was bringing in economic benefits and raising its profile in the eyes of international investors. BMI has revised our 2010 GDP growth forecast upwards to 3.0% (from 2.6%) previously. On the medium term to 2014 we see annual growth averaging 4.1%. While the recovery is in progress, our analysts nevertheless warn it is a rather tepid affair, because the consumer sector remains under pressure, private investment has been weak, and there are concerns over continuing problems with electric power supply.
Total tonnage handled by South Africa's main ports will recover in 2010 after the 2009 slump. At the Port of Cape Town (POCT) we see volume gaining 3.5%, after a 4.6% slump in 2009. Our medium-term prediction is for only moderate growth, with an annual average of 3.6%, trailing behind the rate of GDP expansion in the country. At the Port of Durban (POD) both the recovery and the medium-term outlook are more muted. We see volume there gaining 2.4% in 2010, after a 9.6% fall in 2009. The medium-term outlook at Durban is for annual volume growth of a very modest 1.9%. Box traffic growth will remain modest at Cape Town, where there are capacity constraints, but will be stronger at Durban. In real terms, we see exports gaining 11.1% in 2010, in contrast to a 19.5% fall in 2009. Imports should grow at a lower 6.0% (after slumping by 17.4% in 2009). Over the next five years we expect overall trade (imports + exports) to grow by an annual average of 7.3%. Exports will lead the way with 8.4% annual average growth, while imports will expand by 6.4% per annum.
The risks to our South Africa freight forecasts are on the downside. Perhaps the most immediate risk is of a post-World Cup resumption of strike action in the ports sector, or by railway workers responsible for freight deliveries to the ports. This could have a potentially serious effect on the flow of the country's exports. A second-line risk concerns the wider political scene: disagreements within the ruling ANC or allegations of corruption in the administration could have a negative impact on investor confidence.


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Browse the complete Report on: Japan Freight Transport Report Q3 2010


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A mixture of asset write-downs, restructuring, consolidation and recovery is on the cards for the Japanese airfreight sector. The bankrupt Japan Airlines (JAL), Asia’s largest air carrier, was expected to have registered an operating loss of nearly US$1.7bn in the fiscal year ended March 31 2010. This was attributed to a sharp decline in revenues resulting from a rapid slowdown in the Japanese economy. JAL and two subsidiaries appealed for bankruptcy protection in January 2010, with a combined debt of US$25bn. The company was planning to cut its spending by US$1.16bn in the current fiscal year. Nearly 4,000 workers had already opted for early retirement, which would help the airline, saving US$272.1mn more than planned at the end of March 2011. Meanwhile, it reported a 12.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in international cargo volume to 49,454 tonnes in April 2010, compared with an increase of 32.9% y-o-y in March 2010. In the same period, JAL’s domestic cargo volume rose by 4.3% y-o-y to 38,050 tonnes, compared with 9.6% y-o-y in March 2010. Meanwhile, All Nippon Airways (ANA), Japan’s second largest airline, recorded an impressive 57.3% y-o-y surge in international cargo volume to 39,431 tonnes in April 2010, compared with 59.1% y-o-y in March 2010. ANA also posted a 5% y-o-y increase in domestic cargo volume to 38,372 tonnes in April 2010.
The operating environment for the Japanese freight sector was mixed at the mid-year point. A year after the electorate ended one-party dominance of the country’s political system, the new administration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was still struggling to measure up to the challenges of government. The replacement of the prime minister (Yukio Hatoyama resigned at the beginning of June and was succeeded by Naoto Kan) was taken as a sign that the DPJ had yet to find its stride. Meanwhile, the economy continued to be a source for concern. BMI detected a poor investment outlook, muted consumer spending and a downturn in exports as Chinese and US demand was expected to falter. After falling by 5.8% in the recession year of 2009, BMI was predicting that Japanese GDP would grow by 1.9% in 2010, but lose impetus again with growth of only 0.9% in 2011. On the medium term to 2014, we expect annual GDP growth to average only 1.3%.
After 2009’s very steep falls in volumes, the airfreight sector is now enjoying a recovery. BMI forecasts that cargo volume will rise by 2.5% in 2010, a small improvement after 2009’s 10.9% slump, but nevertheless a move in the right direction. Air freight carried (volume x distance) will rise a little more strongly, up by 4.8% .
Japan’s highly-developed roads can be heavily congested at certain points, and as in many mature economies, road haulage growth is limited. We see road freight volume up by 1.2% in 2010, following 2009’s recession-driven 8.8% contraction. According to our five-year forecast, volume will gain by an annual average of 0.7%, while traffic will rise 1.4%. This points to a slight lengthening of the average road cargo-carrying trip.
After collapsing by almost one-fifth (-18.7%) during the recession in 2009, railfreight will have a standstill year in 2010, with marginal growth of 0.3% to 37.72mn tonnes. The emphasis remains on passenger travel as the number one priority, so freight capacity will stay limited. Annual average railfreight volume growth will be only 0.3% over the five years to 2014. At the Port of Yokohama (POY) we are predicting 5.7% growth in total tonnage in 2010, representing a partial recovery after the very steep slump in 2009, when tonnage fell by just over one-fifth - 22.3%. However growth will ease back again as the economy cools once more in 2011. At the Port of Tokyo (POT) in 2010 we see total tonnage gaining by 7.0%, a slightly stronger, but still only partial recovery compared to the 2009 drop of 10.6%. In real terms, BMI is predicting an 8.1% recovery in trade in 2010, followed by lower growth of 4.8% in 2011 as we enter potential global ’double-dip’ territory. Average annual foreign trade growth in the five years to 2014 will be 6.2% per annum. There is evidence of a ’rebalancing’ of Japan’s trade patterns going forward, with imports outpacing exports, reflecting a number of factors including somewhat higher Japanese export production costs, an ageing population, and the expected dip in demand from China and the US. As a result imports will grow by 7.3% per annum in real terms, ahead of exports at only 5.4%. On the whole we believe the main risk to our forecasts is political and a downside one at that. The risk is that the DPJ government fails to get a grip on the political and economic situation and enters a period of policy drift, which in current circumstances can only mean lower growth, with the resulting negative knock-on impact on freight demand and volumes.


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Browse the complete Report on: Argentina Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
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Q310 saw a major development in the advancement of Argentina's freight transport sector. The government announced in July that it had secured a US$20bn credit agreement with the China Development Bank to carry out much-needed repair and modernisation work on the country's much maligned railway network after a state visit paid by President Cristina Kirchner to Beijing.

After several years of inaction, the pleas of farmers for a better rail freight network appear finally to have been answered: the first chunk of funding, worth a reported US$2.5bn, expected to be invested in improving the two main rail lines dissecting Argentina's north and central regions, which comprise the country's main areas of agricultural and mineral production. The renovations are expected to take place over a period of four years. An additional US$1.85bn will be spent on developing the Belgrano railway, which links Buenos Aires with the country's northern provinces and reaches as far as the Bolivian border. The destination of the remaining funds has yet to be decided, though it is expected to include modernisation of the underground rail services of Argentina's two largest cities, Buenos Aires and Cordoba.

BMI believes investment in Argentina's rail freight sector will help iron out the kinks in the country's supply chain and increase its competitiveness as a major exporter of grains and other raw materials. According to the Rosario grain exchange, the freight tonne-km cost of transporting grain by road is US$0.7 per dollar, about twice the price of transporting by rail or four times the cost of maritime freight. A cheaper, more efficient supply chain should put Argentine producers on a more even footing with other major suppliers such as the US and Canada.

With a brighter long-term outlook assured, the immediate forecast for Argentine rail freight is also positive. In 2010, we expect freight carried by rail to rebound by 1.45% to 10.06bntkm, while the total tonnage carried by rail will gain 1.45% to 19.9mn tonnes. We expect this performance to continue into 2011 when freight carried will grow to 10.23bntkm and total tonnage will increase to 20.29mn tonnes. Argentina's major ports meanwhile remain on course to complete a moderate recovery in 2010 as forecast by BMI at the beginning of the year. At the Port of Buenos Aires (POBA), we are sticking with our forecast of a modest 3.7% rebound in total tonnage throughput rebound in 2010 with cargo volumes set to reach 8.92mn tonnes. We expect the rate of growth to accelerate slightly in 2011 when throughput should grow by 4.7% to 9.34mn tonnes. We see the Port of Bahía Blanca (POBB)'s total tonnage growing by 2.9% to 11.3mn tonnes in 2010 before accelerating to 3% next year when the facility is projected to handle 11.65mn tonnes.

Though relations between the government and Argentina's agricultural producers have appeared more stable in 2010 relative to the turmoil of 2008 and 2009, ongoing disputes between the two parties, including port blockades by the URGARA farmers union in June continue to place downside risk to our trade forecasts. Added to this has been a Chinese ban on Argentine soy oil which has dragged on since March, following the escalation of a trade dispute between the two countries. That said, we continue to see imports gaining 18.8% in value in 2010 to US$81.2bn, while exports will gain 21.7% to US$108.2bn. In real terms, import growth will be a much more modest 2% this year, with exports doing significantly better at 5%. Looking to 2011, we expected the country's trade volumes to accelerate slightly with imports and exports growing by 4% and 5% respectively in real terms.
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Original Source : – Argentina Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
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Browse the complete Report on: Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
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The international aviation business has been highly volatile in recent years, but there seems little doubt in Asia at least that the next move is up. In a sign of the times Malaysia Airports Holdings was to issue bonds worth MYR2.7bn (US$824mn) in June 2010 to fund the construction of the country's second, lowcost carrier air terminal and refinance existing debt. According to Reuters, the state-owned firm would issue MYR1bn (US$301mn) in Islamic bonds and US$500mn in conventional bonds, reportedly targeting investors from Hong Kong, Singapore and the Middle East. The firm forecasts that construction of the new low-cost terminal will cost US$662mn. The terminal, which will be near Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA), the country's largest airport, will be capable of handling 30mn passengers a year when it is completed, in 2012. It will help ease air traffic congestion and accommodate more passengers, which is important given that the country is becoming a hub for low-cost air travel. Indeed, in many cases, the most practical way to travel between the two parts of the country is by the low-cost air carrier. The Malaysian macroeconomic environment is improving, to the benefit of the freight transport sector. What is perhaps not yet clear is whether the improvement will be vigorous or merely satisfactory. On the 'vigorous' side of the equation we point to signs of a V-shaped economic recovery after the recession of 2009. After falling by 1.7% last year, we now predict that GDP will come back strongly, with 4.9% growth in 2010, led by the wholesale and retail trade and a resumption of private sector investment.

Across out five-year forecast horizon, we expect GDP to grow by a respectable annual average of 4.8%. On the 'satisfactory', or even 'disappointing' side of the equation, the government will have to do some fiscal tightening, cutting back expenditure, and the threat of a 'double dip' global slowdown in 2011 seems to be suggesting exports will not lead growth as strongly as they have in the past. That is significant as it means shipping demand and port activity may be more muted.

The Malaysian airfreight sector will recover strongly this year, lifted by economic growth, the generally dynamic performance of regional Asian airfreight demand and the improving finances of the main local carriers including Malaysian Airlines (MAS). In volume terms we expect total cargo to gain 8.1% in 2010.

We project a vigorous recovery in railfreight, as investment flows into the sector and Malaysia's regional development plans gather pace. In volume terms we project 15.3% growth this year, more than correcting for the 2009 contraction of 12.9%.

This year's trade recovery is making itself felt on the docks at the Port of Klang (POK), Malaysia's largest terminal for general cargo. BMI is projecting a vigorous increase in volume there, up by 20.7%, more than offsetting the 9.6% contraction during the slump last year. At the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (POTP) we see volume gaining by 13.9%. Unlike POK, there was no contraction last year. The Port of Klang is expected to see 21.2% container handling growth this year. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas will see growth of 10.0% in box traffic.

In real terms we expect Malaysia's total trade (imports and exports) to recover this year, following the sharp 11.3% fall in 2009. In fact, BMI is projecting a 10.5% growth rate, almost recovering all the ground that was lost in 2009. However, next year, in 2011, as we expect a 'double dip' global economic slowdown originated by both China and the US to come into play, Malaysian trade growth will slow to 2.6%. Across our five-year medium term forecast we expect annual average trade growth in real terms of 5.1%. Imports will lead the way with average growth of 6.1%, ahead of exports at a slower 4.3%.

We believe there are two major risks to our Malaysia freight forecast, both on the downside. The first is if a deeper-than-expected 'double dip' recession emerged in 2011, particularly in China, which would have a negative ripple-effect throughout Asia, reducing trade growth and shipping demand. The second risk is political and concerns any developments that could take the government's focus off the management of the economy and the gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit. Both the ruling coalition and the main opposition party have been suffering from internal disagreements, so a 'destabilisation' scenario could originate in various different ways.
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Original Source: Freight Transport Market
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