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Report Summary
Brazil elects a new president on October 3 2010. Recent opinion
polls show Dilma Rousseff, of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT),
opening up a five percentage point lead over her major challenger, José
Serra (of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, PSDB). Dilma
Rousseff’s lead in the opinion polls suggests that President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva’s efforts to ensure that his appointed successor
replaces him in office are increasingly starting to bear fruit.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, we believe that both
candidates will face similar challenges, and will ultimately have to
address Brazil’s persisting and pressing economic structural issues.
However, in neither case do we expect a sudden shift in policy. While
Serra may prove to be more fiscally conservative, we do not envision a
sharp unwinding of existing public spending commitments. By the same
token, we do not expect a large build-up of public expenditure to a
greater extent than already seen in recent years.
We believe that Brazil’s growing financial market integration will
ultimately ensure a moderate ‘middle way’ for Brazilian politics.
Regarding domestic security, Brazil continues to be threatened by gangs
involved in drug-related violence, which is especially of concern in
the run-up to Brazil hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the 2016
Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
In 2009, Brazil was by far the largest spender on defence in Latin
America, with a total budget of over US$27bn, a 16% y-o-y increase. (It
has by far the largest armed forces in South America.) There was a
near doubling in the procurement budget by the Brazilian government to
US$5.6bn over the three years to 2009. On July 16, French defence
minister Herve Morin said that he expected President Lula da Silva to
commit to ordering 36 Dassault Rafale aircraft later in July, in a
contract that would be worth US$7.2bn.
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