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Report Summary


Japan's new vehicle sales are in more positive territory in H110, largely thanks to government incentives, which have sustained the momentum generated in the latter months of 2009. For the six months to June 2010, sales were up by 21.5% y-o-y at 2.66mn units. In financial year terms, this represented growth of 20.8% for the first three months of the new financial year (April to June 2010). Factoring in a slight slowing of growth in H210 as part of BMI's view for a slowdown in the major developed states, the market is still on track to meet BMI's forecast for sales of 5.136mn units.

Hybrids are still a major focus for carmakers in Japan, largely due the incentives, which have boosted sales of the fuel-efficient cars. In line with BMI's view that alternative fuel vehicles will see increased support from carmakers and governments alike, the Japanese government has exempted vehicles such as electric, hybrid, natural gas and selected diesel-powered models, from weight and purchases taxes. The result is that Toyota Motor's Prius hybrid was the best-selling model in the country for the 4th consecutive month in June. Despite its recall issues, the Prius still achieved double the sales of its nearest rival, Honda Motor's Fit small car, with sales of 31,876 units, compared with 15,995 units for the Fit.

Market saturation keeps Japan in fourth place in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the auto sector in Asia Pacific with an overall rating of 61.1 from a possible 100. While the country scores well in terms of its country risk, with low levels of corruption and a sound legal framework that have bumped up the market's overall score, the auto industry is nearing full capacity, and this consequently reduces production growth potential, while the high level of vehicle ownership restricts possible sales growth. Labour costs are also high, which adds to the cost of expanding production.

Despite its recall issues, Toyota still leads its home market with a 31% share of total sales in H110, boosted by its Prius being the best-selling model in the country. Its dominance is compounded by premium brand Lexus which more than doubled its sales year-on-year in H110 to 19,161 units. Nissan has retained second place although its market share is less than half that of Toyota at 12.98%. Honda Motor, which has equally benefited from government incentives through it Fit compact model, registered growth of 20.34% in H110 to take third place with 12.77% of the market.

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