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BMI has upgraded its forecast for Hong Kong’s pharmaceutical market following a re-assessment of historic medicine sales. Using import/export data, information from primary research firms, government figures and reports from local drugmakers, we calculate that combined sales of prescription drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines increased from HKD5.06bn (US$651mn) in 2005 to HKD7.19bn (US$926mn) in 2009.
Pharmaceutical sales are projected to increase to HKD7.97bn (US$1.03bn) in 2010. Due to the weakening Hong Kong dollar, this equates to growth of 10.9% in local currency terms and 10.7% in US dollar terms. Through to 2014 and 2019, we expect Hong Kong’s pharmaceutical market to post local currency compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 9.50% and 7.04%, respectively.
Following a series of product scandals in 2009, pharmaceutical regulations have improved. In line with this trend, Hong Kong's Department of Health recalled two hair care products registered as proprietary Chinese medicines – Gold 101 Super Effective Hair Growth Agent and Zhangguang 101D Fabao – from the market on August 2 2010, during its period of market surveillance. The recall was issued after the drugs were found to contain an allopathic medicine, minoxidil, used to treat hair loss.
Hong Kong has maintained seventh place in the Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q410. The Special Administrative Region’s Q310 ‘Pharmaceutical Rating’ is unchanged.
For this quarter's update of the BERs we have streamlined the indicator headings to make the ratings more user-friendly and intuitive. Where previously, 'limits to potential returns' pertained to the opportunities and rewards on offer, this has now been titled 'rewards', while 'risks to potential returns' has been termed 'risks'.
Within the rewards/risks categories, 'pharmaceuticals & healthcare market' and 'country structure' have been re-termed 'industry rewards' and 'country rewards'; likewise, 'market risks' has been renamed 'industry risks', while 'country risks' has remained the same.
The final change is the replacement of the legal framework indicator, which forms part of the country risks score, with institutions. This score is now a broader assessment of the operating environment, including indicators such as red tape, investor protection and wider legal framework.
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