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The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.35% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 67.45% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 86.93%, while it contributed 75.94% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 86.82%, with 74.69% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
US real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.4% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.29mn b/d in 2009. By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 18.69mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.46mn b/d by 2014, requiring crude imports of 12.31mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 7.37% fall in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.32mn b/d in 2012 before declining to 6.85mn b/d in 2019. Given that oil consumption is forecast to rise by 2.00%, imports rise from an estimated 11.40mn b/d in 2010 to 12.32mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 530bcm in 2015, then rally to 560bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 658bcm to 737bcm, requiring net imports to rise to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 81.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.8, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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Original Source : Oil and Gas Market
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The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.35% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 67.45% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.89mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.50mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.18mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.39mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 86.93%, while it contributed 75.94% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 86.82%, with 74.69% of regional supply.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
US real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.4% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming 2.2% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.29mn b/d in 2009. By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 18.69mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.46mn b/d by 2014, requiring crude imports of 12.31mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 7.37% fall in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.32mn b/d in 2012 before declining to 6.85mn b/d in 2019. Given that oil consumption is forecast to rise by 2.00%, imports rise from an estimated 11.40mn b/d in 2010 to 12.32mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 530bcm in 2015, then rally to 560bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 658bcm to 737bcm, requiring net imports to rise to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 81.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.8, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : Oil and Gas Market
Buy Now : Market Research Report
