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In Q210 the news emanating from the US maritime sector was positive with encouraging throughput data from ports such as Los Angeles (LA), Charleston, Seattle and Savannah chiming with recent Chinese trade data, which revealed a sharp rise in Chinese exports in May, including 48.5% y-o-y growth in exports to US$131.76bn. Many observers have taken the figures as a sign of a recovery in global trade activity. Indeed, Los Angeles can be seen as a reliable bellwether for transpacific trade volumes and, in 2009, was close to matching the 12% contraction in international trade volumes as it registered a 14% decrease in its container handling volumes. Container lines in particular have been quick to seize the opportunity to profit from the increase in trade demand by raising rates. Members of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) have successfully introduced a series of rate increases, and there are rumours of a further US$50-100 per TEU increase to be introduced in the next few weeks.
Running parallel to BMI's optimism surrounding the transpacific market, however, is our projection of a potential slowdown in the US economy in H210, which stands to affect demand for container shipping services. In our opinion, the strong growth trend in transpacific trade seen in H110 has, for the most part, been underpinned by restocking by US exporters who, during the nadir of the global economic downturn, allowed inventories to run threadbare. An improvement in US economic output in Q409 and this year prompted firms to replenish stocks, with growth driven in large part by the knock-on effects of the government's fiscal stimulus programme.
In recent weeks there have been indications that the stimulatory effects of government spending are beginning to fizzle out, with the Telegraph reporting in May 2010 that US money supply contracted by an annualised rate of 9.6% in the three months to April 2010. Concerns over slowing aggregate demand were deepened by news of a 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) fall in US retail sales in May, the steepest monthly contraction since October 2009. Sales by department stores were among the worst affected, registering a 1.8% contraction in volume terms. Though the latest data have yet to filter through into actual trade volumes or port throughput, news of slowing sales will be of concern to importers, and in particular shippers of Chinese-produced manufactured goods. Wary of a further decline in consumer demand, BMI believes shippers will be under pressure to reduce orders over the next few weeks, which threatens to have a marked effect on shipping volumes and port throughput.
In 2010, BMI sees US trade volumes, which fell by 11.9% in real terms last year, growing at a brisk 7.8% with imports and exports increasing by 7.7% and 7.9% respectively. In nominal terms, imports will expand by 5.9% to US$2.07trn after a recession-fuelled contraction of 22.9% last year. We expect the strongest growth in value terms will be registered by fuels, followed by ores and metals and then iron and steel. With the impetus of President Barack Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) behind it, export growth will be marginally greater than the rise in imports in value terms - up by 7.9% to US$1.59trn. The biggest export growth categories, measured in value will be fuels, ores and metals and iron and steel, in that order.
A recovery is forecast at ports across the US, through the growth in throughput is unlikely to be enough to offset the considerable contraction suffered by many facilities. At the country's largest west coast port, LA, BMI is forecasting 6.7% growth in total tonnage thisin 2010, after a contraction of 18.4% last year. By the end of 2010, LA will have handled 52.06mn tonnes. At the east coast port of New York/ New Jersey (NY/NJ), meanwhile, tonnage throughput, which fell by 20.8% in 2009, will grow by just 0.8% in real terms to 122.5mn tonnes.
In the container shipping sector the recovery is also expected to be muted with a growth of 4.6% expected at LA compared with an increase of 1.9% y-o-y at NY/NJ. By the end of 2010 LA is projected to have handled 7.06mn TEUs with NY/NJ handling 4.65mn TEUs.
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Original Source : United States Shipping Market
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
In Q210 the news emanating from the US maritime sector was positive with encouraging throughput data from ports such as Los Angeles (LA), Charleston, Seattle and Savannah chiming with recent Chinese trade data, which revealed a sharp rise in Chinese exports in May, including 48.5% y-o-y growth in exports to US$131.76bn. Many observers have taken the figures as a sign of a recovery in global trade activity. Indeed, Los Angeles can be seen as a reliable bellwether for transpacific trade volumes and, in 2009, was close to matching the 12% contraction in international trade volumes as it registered a 14% decrease in its container handling volumes. Container lines in particular have been quick to seize the opportunity to profit from the increase in trade demand by raising rates. Members of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) have successfully introduced a series of rate increases, and there are rumours of a further US$50-100 per TEU increase to be introduced in the next few weeks.
Running parallel to BMI's optimism surrounding the transpacific market, however, is our projection of a potential slowdown in the US economy in H210, which stands to affect demand for container shipping services. In our opinion, the strong growth trend in transpacific trade seen in H110 has, for the most part, been underpinned by restocking by US exporters who, during the nadir of the global economic downturn, allowed inventories to run threadbare. An improvement in US economic output in Q409 and this year prompted firms to replenish stocks, with growth driven in large part by the knock-on effects of the government's fiscal stimulus programme.
In recent weeks there have been indications that the stimulatory effects of government spending are beginning to fizzle out, with the Telegraph reporting in May 2010 that US money supply contracted by an annualised rate of 9.6% in the three months to April 2010. Concerns over slowing aggregate demand were deepened by news of a 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) fall in US retail sales in May, the steepest monthly contraction since October 2009. Sales by department stores were among the worst affected, registering a 1.8% contraction in volume terms. Though the latest data have yet to filter through into actual trade volumes or port throughput, news of slowing sales will be of concern to importers, and in particular shippers of Chinese-produced manufactured goods. Wary of a further decline in consumer demand, BMI believes shippers will be under pressure to reduce orders over the next few weeks, which threatens to have a marked effect on shipping volumes and port throughput.
In 2010, BMI sees US trade volumes, which fell by 11.9% in real terms last year, growing at a brisk 7.8% with imports and exports increasing by 7.7% and 7.9% respectively. In nominal terms, imports will expand by 5.9% to US$2.07trn after a recession-fuelled contraction of 22.9% last year. We expect the strongest growth in value terms will be registered by fuels, followed by ores and metals and then iron and steel. With the impetus of President Barack Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) behind it, export growth will be marginally greater than the rise in imports in value terms - up by 7.9% to US$1.59trn. The biggest export growth categories, measured in value will be fuels, ores and metals and iron and steel, in that order.
A recovery is forecast at ports across the US, through the growth in throughput is unlikely to be enough to offset the considerable contraction suffered by many facilities. At the country's largest west coast port, LA, BMI is forecasting 6.7% growth in total tonnage thisin 2010, after a contraction of 18.4% last year. By the end of 2010, LA will have handled 52.06mn tonnes. At the east coast port of New York/ New Jersey (NY/NJ), meanwhile, tonnage throughput, which fell by 20.8% in 2009, will grow by just 0.8% in real terms to 122.5mn tonnes.
In the container shipping sector the recovery is also expected to be muted with a growth of 4.6% expected at LA compared with an increase of 1.9% y-o-y at NY/NJ. By the end of 2010 LA is projected to have handled 7.06mn TEUs with NY/NJ handling 4.65mn TEUs.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : United States Shipping Market
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