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This latest BMI South Korea Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 7.94% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. South Korea’s estimated share of regional gas consumption in 2010 is 6.95%, while its share of production is minimal. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.14%.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
South Korean real GDP is forecast by BMI to increase by 5.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 4.2% in 2010-2014. Several South Korean oil companies, including state interests, are engaged in securing international upstream production, but the domestic market offers little potential for oil or gas. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by no more than 1% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 2.40mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is forecast to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 34.5bcm to 38.4bcm by 2014, with the bulk of the fuel being imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in South Korea’s oil consumption from an estimated 2.35mn b/d to 2.40mn b/d (+1.95%), with the country’s refining capacity rising from 2.71mn b/d to 2.85mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 34.5bcm in 2010 to a possible 41.6bcm by 2019, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
South Korea ranks 14th, ahead only of Taiwan, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It also takes 14th place, again ahead only of Taiwan, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment Rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offsets the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country has a comfortable lead over Taiwan in the upstream league table. South Korea ranks sixth, above Thailand, in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its relatively high levels of oil and gas consumption, established modern refining capability and relatively low level of state involvement. It is three points behind Japan, and has limited ability to climb the league table.
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
This latest BMI South Korea Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 7.94% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. South Korea’s estimated share of regional gas consumption in 2010 is 6.95%, while its share of production is minimal. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.14%.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
South Korean real GDP is forecast by BMI to increase by 5.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 4.2% in 2010-2014. Several South Korean oil companies, including state interests, are engaged in securing international upstream production, but the domestic market offers little potential for oil or gas. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by no more than 1% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 2.40mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is forecast to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 34.5bcm to 38.4bcm by 2014, with the bulk of the fuel being imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in South Korea’s oil consumption from an estimated 2.35mn b/d to 2.40mn b/d (+1.95%), with the country’s refining capacity rising from 2.71mn b/d to 2.85mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 34.5bcm in 2010 to a possible 41.6bcm by 2019, met largely by LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
South Korea ranks 14th, ahead only of Taiwan, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It also takes 14th place, again ahead only of Taiwan, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment Rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offsets the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country has a comfortable lead over Taiwan in the upstream league table. South Korea ranks sixth, above Thailand, in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its relatively high levels of oil and gas consumption, established modern refining capability and relatively low level of state involvement. It is three points behind Japan, and has limited ability to climb the league table.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
