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Widespread fears of a return to the record high levels of arrears and possessions seen in the recession of the early 1990s have not, so far, been realized. A combination of factors, including low interest rates, have helped to limit the increase in the number of borrowers in difficulty. However, economic difficulties ahead may reverse the recent decline in arrears and possessions.

Scope

• Examines the key trends that have driven arrears and possessions up to Q1 2010.
• Discusses how the government and specific lenders have responded to the threat of greater arrears.
• Sets out Datamonitor's arrears forecasts for the period 2010-2014.

Highlights

Arrears peaked in Q2 2009, and possessions in Q1 2009, and both have fallen steadily since. Datamonitor research confirms that arrears are not currently a significant problem: only 1% of borrowers reported missing more than three payments over the last 12 months, while 9% were making overpayments.

The introduction of the Mortgage Pre-action Protocol in November 2008 directly led to a sharp fall in possession actions in early 2009. Record low interest rates, coupled with lender forbearance, lower-than-expected unemployment and various government support schemes have all helped to minimize arrears and possessions since then.

Arrears may become more problematic in the future. Funding for government schemes is being scaled back, and the risk of higher unemployment in the wake of spending cuts could result in more borrowers finding themselves in difficulty. Increases in VAT and interest rates could also create affordability issues.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand what factors have shaped the arrears situation to date, and what will influence it over the next few years.
• Assess the degree to which the leading providers have been individually affected by arrears to date.
• Use Datamonitor's forecasts to help inform your future plans.

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