Browse the complete Report on: Russia Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
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BMI View: The worst drought for 130 years poses a serious threat to Russian production this year. An estimated one-fifth of grain plantings have been ruined, causing knock-on effects to the dairy and livestock industries in terms of feed supply. The government has pledged to release 3mn tonnes of intervention grain in a bid to ease the crisis, but not in time to prevent some early slaughter of livestock and productivity losses incurred by dairy producers. This quarter we have consequently reduced our forecasts for production of most commodities this year.
We are forecasting a significant decline in wheat production for the 2010/11 season. Output is expected to fall 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 55.6mn tonnes. Corn production in 2009/10 is forecast to fall to 4.04mn tonnes, down 38.8% from 2008/09's bumper crop of 6.60mn tonnes. Barley production for 2010/11 is expected to fall 11.8% to 15.1mn tonnes. Milk productivity is also likely to have taken a hit, as farmers use cheaper feed in the face of rising costs. We are now forecasting 2010 production at 32.0mn tonnes, down 1.07mn tonnes on last quarter's forecast and down 1.5% y-o-y.
Release of intervention grain has reportedly come too late to prevent some early slaughter of livestock to mitigate high feed prices. We are forecasting poultry production in 2010 to reach 1.93mn tonnes, growing 8.7% y-o-y but down 193,000 tonnes on our Q310 report. Pork production is expected to show modest growth of 1.6% y-o-y, with production reaching 2.24mn tonnes.
The US poultry dispute is at an end. Imports of US chicken have resumed after Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev brokered an agreement in Washington during trade talks in advance of the Toronto G20 meeting. US producers have agreed to cease use of the chlorinated washes that the Russians have taken exception to. Nevertheless, the recent Russian ban on pork imports from two major US plants shows such manoeuvres will remain a fixture of Russian trade policy through our forecast period.
Logistics remain a challenge for the Russian goal of becoming the world's top wheat exporter. Much of the unused agricultural land which will be key to the production required to meet this goal is far from targeted export markets. Vast amounts of investment will be needed if this land is to be brought into use.
A dispute between Russian milk producers and processors over the minimum milk price is at an end. Of processors, 65% of cheesemakers, 40% of dry milk producers and 50% of butter producers signed an agreement allowing a minimum milk price of RUB11/kg. Nevertheless, soaring feed prices due to the drought mean this lower bound is unlikely to be tested this year.
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Original Source : – Russia Agribusiness Market
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Browse All Business Monitor International Market Research Reports
BMI View: The worst drought for 130 years poses a serious threat to Russian production this year. An estimated one-fifth of grain plantings have been ruined, causing knock-on effects to the dairy and livestock industries in terms of feed supply. The government has pledged to release 3mn tonnes of intervention grain in a bid to ease the crisis, but not in time to prevent some early slaughter of livestock and productivity losses incurred by dairy producers. This quarter we have consequently reduced our forecasts for production of most commodities this year.
We are forecasting a significant decline in wheat production for the 2010/11 season. Output is expected to fall 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 55.6mn tonnes. Corn production in 2009/10 is forecast to fall to 4.04mn tonnes, down 38.8% from 2008/09's bumper crop of 6.60mn tonnes. Barley production for 2010/11 is expected to fall 11.8% to 15.1mn tonnes. Milk productivity is also likely to have taken a hit, as farmers use cheaper feed in the face of rising costs. We are now forecasting 2010 production at 32.0mn tonnes, down 1.07mn tonnes on last quarter's forecast and down 1.5% y-o-y.
Release of intervention grain has reportedly come too late to prevent some early slaughter of livestock to mitigate high feed prices. We are forecasting poultry production in 2010 to reach 1.93mn tonnes, growing 8.7% y-o-y but down 193,000 tonnes on our Q310 report. Pork production is expected to show modest growth of 1.6% y-o-y, with production reaching 2.24mn tonnes.
The US poultry dispute is at an end. Imports of US chicken have resumed after Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev brokered an agreement in Washington during trade talks in advance of the Toronto G20 meeting. US producers have agreed to cease use of the chlorinated washes that the Russians have taken exception to. Nevertheless, the recent Russian ban on pork imports from two major US plants shows such manoeuvres will remain a fixture of Russian trade policy through our forecast period.
Logistics remain a challenge for the Russian goal of becoming the world's top wheat exporter. Much of the unused agricultural land which will be key to the production required to meet this goal is far from targeted export markets. Vast amounts of investment will be needed if this land is to be brought into use.
A dispute between Russian milk producers and processors over the minimum milk price is at an end. Of processors, 65% of cheesemakers, 40% of dry milk producers and 50% of butter producers signed an agreement allowing a minimum milk price of RUB11/kg. Nevertheless, soaring feed prices due to the drought mean this lower bound is unlikely to be tested this year.
About Us
ReportsandReports comprises an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites. Our client list boasts almost all well-known publishers of such reports across the globe. We as a third-party reseller of market research reports employ a number of marketing tools, such as press releases, email-marketing and effective search-engine optimization techniques to drive revenues for our clients. We also provide 24/7 online and offline support service to our customers.
Contact:
Ms. Sunita
7557 Rambler road,
Suite 727, Dallas, TX 75231
Tel: +1-888-989-8004
http://reportsandreports.blogspot.com/
http://reportsandreports.proarticles.co.uk/
http://reportsnreports.wordpress.com/
Original Source : – Russia Agribusiness Market
Buy Now : Market Research Report
